Ray Dalio: It's just an extension of the patterns of history. So for example, if you looked at European countries in the '30s, like Germany in the '30s and taking economic policy, there was write down the debts, create tariff revenue because you can get a lot of money from tariff revenue, then build up your domestic [industry] - be nationalist, be protectionistic, be militaristic. That is the way these things operate.
So I would say lessons from the past of what that looks like. And the issue is really the confrontation of all of this, the fighting of all of this. So tariffs are going to cause fighting between countries. What kind of fighting? Maybe military, I'm not necessarily talking military, but think about U.S., Canada, Mexico, China and all of those types of fighting. There will be fighting and that will have consequences. And I think that's the main thing to pay attention to.
Sara Eisen: Do you worry about what it will do to the global economy... as a result of all the trade barriers?
Ray Dalio: Of course. I worry about the global economy and the global well being... but I also should emphasize that in history you can see that there are the major countries [involved in the conflict] and then there are the neutral countries. And the neutral countries do extremely well during these periods of time. They get people and capital that go to them, they are able to navigate in a certain way. The making of great prosperity, it doesn't effect the whole world; there are beneficiaries of this, too. Like Singapore, if it remains a neutral country - and that's a very difficult thing to do - and it operates this way, it becomes great opportunities.
~ Ray Dalio, "Ray Dalio and Salesforce’s Benioff on AI, trade wars and new world order," CNBC International Live, 18:40 mark, March 14, 2025
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