Mark Zandi: "odds that a downturn is dead ahead are receding"

What recession?  The consensus view that recession was virtually a slam dunk looks increasingly off base.  Yes, there will eventually be one, but odds that a downturn is dead ahead are receding.

~ Mark Zandi, tweet, June 11, 2023

Michael Kantrowitz on the coming recession

The conditions of every recession since 1960 - there's been eight - there's three preconditions: the Fed hikes, we have an inflation problem and we have tighter lending standards for banks.  We have all three of those conditions today.

~ Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler chief investment strategist, CNBC interview, 3:00 mark, May 11, 2023

Mike Bell sees economic recovery in 2024

You will see a recession in all major economies this year, but the market spent 2022 pricing that in and will spend this year looking ahead to an economic recovery in 2024.

~ Mike Bell, global markets strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, January 6, 2023

(As quoted by "How ETF Investors Are Playing ‘the Most Anticipated Recession of All Time’," ETF.com, February 06, 2023)

Janet Yellen: "You don't have a recession when you have the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years"

You don't have a recession when you have 500,000 jobs and the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years.  What I see is a path in which inflation is declining significantly and the economy is remaining strong."

~ Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, as appeared on ABC's Good Morning America, February 6, 2023

Kevin Duffy on the coming recession

The reason I expect the worst recession of this generation is that the excesses of the previous boom, fed by a decade of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), must be cleansed.  The magnitude of the bust is proportional to the boom that preceded it, and this one broke all records.  A one-year, garden variety bear market won’t do the trick.  If ultra-low rates encouraged too much debt, borrowing more money, at significantly higher rates no less, can only dig the hole deeper.

~ Kevin Duffy, The Coffee Can Portfolio, p. 18, January 24, 2023

David Solomon expects a soft landing

The macro psyche is evolving or breaking a little bit more to the positive...  I think the sentiment is softening a little bit and the view that the chance of a softer landing, both in the U.S. and Europe, is actually increasing.  Our economics team has been pretty "soft landing" over the last 6 months...  Our economics team, even last weekend, went and said that they are now not calling for recession in Europe.  The improvement in the energy situation, the reopening in China, they actually see as a little bit more positive. 

~ David Solomon, Goldman Sachs CEO, CNBC interview in Davos, 6:40 mark, January 18, 2023

Jane Fraser sees a "mild, manageable" recession

I think everyone's converging now in the States more around a mild, manageable recessionary scenario driven by the strength that we've got in the labor markets.

[...]

The vulnerabilities you normally expect heading into slower economic growth don't exist at the moment: strong corporate balance sheets, strong consumer balance sheets and banks in very good health as well.

~ Jane Fraser, Citi CEO, CNBC interview in Davos, 1:55 and 2:55 mark, January 17, 2023

Larry Summers: "soft landings are the triumph of hope over experience"

I'm still cautious, David, but with a little more hope than I had before.  Soft landings are the triumph of hope over experience, but sometimes hope does triumph over experience.  We have seen some slowing of inflation indicators  at the same time we've seen continued strength [in the economy].  That's gotta be what we all want to see.  I still think it's gonna be hard because we need a substantial amount of disinflation that goes beyond volatile components receding, but you have to recognize that the figures are better than somebody like me would've expected three months ago.  So it’s still a very, very difficult job for the Fed, but the situation does look a bit better.  

~ Larry Summers, interview with David Westin in Davos, Bloomberg Television, January 18, 2023

Brian Moynihan: "It'll be a mild recession"

It'll be a mild recession, largely because the stimulus and other things, even though the Fed's raised rates, you see the capacity of the American consumer to keep going.  So basically a mild recession early next year.  But over the last year that's been constantly pushed out so we'll see what happens, but mild recession, slightly down for a couple of quarters and then back to slightly up and then more normal in '24 and into '25.

~ Brian Moynihan, CEO if Bank of America, Yahoo!Finance interview from Davos World Economic Forum, 0:15 mark, January 17, 2023

Lauren Rublin: "few see a deep or lengthy recession in 2023"

[F]ew see a deep or lengthy recession in 2023. 

~ Lauren R. Rublin, moderator of the 2023 Barron's Roundtable, January 9, 2023

Roundtable participants:

If we have a recession, it will be mild.

~ David Giroux, CIO, T. Rowe Price Investment Management

The magic money tree is over.  That and a global energy shock will likely lead to a modest global recession.

~ William Priest, co-CIO, Epoch Investment Partners

If the Fed stays on course on rate hikes, we are going to have a recession.

~ Scott Black, founder, Delphi Management

My assumption is that there won't be a recession, even though we could have two quarters of disappointing GDP.  But any downturn will be brief, so I am assuming no recession.

~ Abby Joseph Cohen, Professor of Business, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University

January 16, 2023

Jeremy Siegel on what caused the 2022 stock market decline

I attribute, therefore, most of the decline that we've seen to the rise in interest rates, not the fear of recession.  Not that there isn't a fear of recession.  There most certainly is.  But if you take a look at it, it's mostly an interest rate phenomenon that has caused this decline.

[...]

Normally you have recession following boom.  We may just have a period of slow growth in the first half.  The Fed then lowers the rate and then we can commence growing again in the second half of 2023.

~ Jeremy Siegel, "The Economy in 2023: Jeremy Siegel's Forecast," Wharton Business Daily, 3:00, 7:55 mark, December 12, 2022

Joe Biden on the possibility of recession (2022)

I don’t think there will be a recession.  If it is, it will be a very slight recession.  Look, it’s possible. I don’t anticipate it.

~ President Joe Biden, interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, October 11, 2022 

(Biden’s take came as the International Monetary Fund, a global lender, downgraded its outlook for the world economy and warned of “storm clouds” gathering — among them “persistent” inflation, the fallout from the Ukraine war and a slowdown in China’s property market impacting the global economy.)

Fortune: two-thirds of economists see a recession

With inflation currently the highest it’s been since 1981 in the U.S., and the Federal Reserve enacting tighter monetary policy to try and bring them down, experts and business leaders alike have been sounding the alarm that a recession could be on the horizon.  Two-thirds of macroeconomists recently surveyed by the Financial Times and the Initiative on Global Markets said they’re anticipating a recession, while more than three-quarters of global executives surveyed by business insights company Conference Board said they are as well.

~ Colin Lodewick, "Bed Bath & Beyond is firing its CEO because Americans are done spending with a recession in the distance," Fortune, June 29, 2022

Jerome Powell: "There's no sign of a broader slowdown that I can see in the economy"

You see continuing shifts in consumption, you see some sales going down, but overall spending is very strong.  The consumer's in really good shape financially.  They're spending.  There's no sign of a broader slowdown that I can see in the economy.

~ Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, FOMC meeting, June 15, 2022

Jeffrey Frankel: "Economic activity is not falling" (2022)

Economic activity is not falling.  Quite the contrary.  It is booming.

[...]

At some point there will be another recession.  But the odds that it will hit the U.S. this year are nowhere near has high as people seem to think.  In a random year, the odds are about 15%.  Currently, they are higher than that.  But not much.

~ Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard professor and member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee from 1992-2019

Dan Skelly: "We still don't see an economic contraction"

The first part of the bear was this inflation and rates and derating in the [P/E] multiple.  And we've seen that play out.  Multiples in the S&P are off 20% or so year-to-date.  The second part of it, in our view, is the earnings hit.  And so we have seen, obviously, blowups in some of those most acutely sensitive to over-earning in the Covid period - so the retailers of the world who over-ordered inventory and maybe have a little bit of skew to that lower-end income scale who's getting particularly impacted by food and gas today.  So we've seen that.  We think that that basically broadens out a bit more to some other parts of the market.  That being said, we see this being limited to a multiple and earnings hit.  So, yes, there's probably a volatile summer ahead of us, but we still don't see an economic contraction.  And with that, you're probably going to be limited to 5, 10% further downside [in the stock market.]

~ Dan Skelly, head of market research & strategy, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Bloomberg TV interview, June 10, 2022

Janet Yellen: "There's nothing to suggest that a recession is in the works (2022)

I don't think we're (going to) have a recession.  Consumer spending is very strong.  Investment spending is solid...  I know people are very upset and rightly so about inflation, but there's nothing to suggest that a... recession is in the works.

[...]

I believe there is a path through this that entails a soft landing...  Is there a recession risk?  Of course there's a recession risk.  But is it likely?  I don't think so.

~ Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, New York Times Dealbook event, June 9, 2022

Christine Lagarde: eurozone can avoid recession (2022)

We are not in a panic mode. 

~ ECB President Christine Lagarde, interview from Davos, May 24, 2022

Bruce Kasman: "We don't see a near-term recession" (2022)

We don't see a near-term recession.  We see a global economy which actually does okay in the second half of the year with the U.S. slowing and the rest of the world dong somewhat better.

~ Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan's chief economist and head of global economic research, Bloomberg TV, June 6, 2022

Nouriel Roubini on the odds of recession

That's why my point of view is that there’s a 60% probability by 2024 we will end up with a hard landing. 

~ Nouriel Roubini, "Roubini Sees a ‘Hard Landing’ for the Economy," WealthManagement.com, June 1, 2022

(Roubini said there has never been a time when both inflation rose higher than 5% while the unemployment rate was below 5% that the country didn’t experience a hard landing when the Fed raised interest rates to try to reduce inflation.)