Fred Hickey on the stock market: "This is about as toxic a brew as I could ever imagine"

The combination of investor complacency in an environment with trade wars, out-of-control U.S. government spending, enormous deficits and debts, funding risks in a period of financial tightening, rising inflation, supply shortages, a likely economic recession, loss of faith in "U.S. exceptionalism," a declining U.S. dollar, risk of monetary debasement and a "massively overvalued stock market" (per investor extraordinaire Paul Singer) is about as toxic a brew as I could ever imagine.

Not only are investors extraordinarily complacent, the bear market rally since April 7 has encouraged them to return to taking enormous risks.  They're piling into the MAG 7 stocks, which have accounted for over half of the S&P 500's total market cap gains since the early April bottom.  Worse yet, they're pouring into all sorts of garbage stocks, grossly overpriced high-fliers and cryptos, including MicroStrategy (MSTR), CoreWeave (CRWV), Tesla (196 times falling earnings and with slumping auto deliveries), Palantir (PLTR - 600 P/E) and many more.  Investors have added a record $437 billion into U.S. ETFs this year, with the largest inflows occurring following market declines.  Believing that they cannot lose in the long run, they buy every dip (thanks Fed!).

~ Fred Hickey, "Toxic Combination," The High-Tech Strategist, p. 2, June 2, 2025

Tom Lee: 9 month rally "is the start of a new bull market"

In our view, the stock market bottomed October 12, 2022, and the rise over the past nine months is the start of a new bull market.  We have had a huge decline in inflation, and the inflation war is the war the Fed is waging and seemingly winning.

[...]

If inflation is cooling, and therefore people become more confident that two rate hikes are the most, or maybe there’s not even two hikes, then I think it’s going to ease financial conditions, so interest rates and bond-market volatility should be diminishing

~ Tom Lee, "He called the 2023 stock-market rally. Here’s what Wall Street’s biggest bull sees for the second half.," MarketWatch, July 6, 2023

Barry Bannister raises his target on the S&P 500 to 4,400

We are raising our target price for the S&P 500 by 5% from our 4,200 prior midpoint view to 4,400 by 2Q/3Q 2023.  There are encouraging signs of economic resilience in mid-2023, which is good for Cyclicals rather than Defensives.

~ Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, "S&P 500 could rise as high as 4,400 in coming months, says Wall Street strategist who called 2023’s rebound," MarketWatch.com, May 8, 2023

President Biden brags about stock market hitting record highs (2022)

The stock market—the last guy's measure of everything—is about 20% higher than it was when my predecessor was there.  It has hit record after record after record on my watch, while making things more equitable for working class people.

~ President Joe Biden, January 7, 2022

(Video tweeted by ABC News on that day.)

The Wall Street Journal: speculative fervor is back

Individual investors have purchased an average of $1.35 billion a day of U.S. stocks and exchange-traded funds on a net basis so far this month, according to Vanda Research through Thursday.  That puts their purchases on pace for their highest monthly average since January, the month when the recent bull market peaked. 

The clamor is reminiscent of the speculative fervor that cascaded over markets in 2020 and 2021, when millions of Americans got hooked on trading stocks, options and cryptocurrencies.  Stuck at home during the Covid-19 pandemic and flush with stimulus checks, newbie traders banded together on online forums, pushing up shares of favorite stocks.  Some made small fortunes.  Others lost big.

~ Caitlin McCabe, "Meme-Stock Investors Are Back! Sort of, Anyway," The Wall Street Journal, August 13, 2022

Joe Kernen believes 3600 on the S&P 500 was the low

Yesterday we had a guy say, "I've gone from selling strength back to buying dips."  That makes sense to me.  I don't think we see 3600 [on the S&P 500] again.

~ Joe Kernen, Ron Baron interview, 2:45 mark, CNBC, August 25, 2022.

(The S&P 500 closed at 4199.)

Ryan Detrick: "This bear market may bottom soon"

If a full-blown crisis and recession such as in 2000-2002 and 2008-09 can be avoided, this bear market may bottom soon.  [With over half of the last five bear markets ending in three months or less,] “the current bear market may be closer to a bottom than many expect.  How this bear market will end will likely hinge on the pace at which inflation comes down, which will dictate the timing and magnitude of the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking campaign.

~ Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, "Stocks Are Crashing But History Shows This Bear Market Could Recovr Faster Than Others," Forbes, June 29, 2022

Bank of America CFO: "We're optimistic about the future"

If you look at the economy, it's improving, people are spending more and businesses are going to have to start investing.  We're optimistic about the future.

~ Paul Donofrio, chief financial officer, Bank of America, "With Solid Profits, Big Banks Are Bullish on Recovery," The New York Times, October 15, 2021

Keith Lerner: "the economy is on solid footing and that equities look attractive"

The short-term noise we’re dealing with does not change the fact that we think the economy is on solid footing and that equities still look attractive relative to other assets.  We still think the primary market trend over the next 12 months is higher.

~ Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, "U.S. Stock-Market Tumble Hasn’t Quelled Optimism," The Wall Street Journal, September 21, 2021

Brad Lamensdorf on investor euphoria: "watch out!"

The level of investor euphoria recently has been at its highest level in many years. Why is this important now?  This excessive euphoria comes at a time when many investors appear to be ignoring market indicators and bleak economic news signaling the stock market is seriously overbought, particularly after its recent  big surge since March’s low. So, what’s propelling investor to thrown caution to the wind? It’s known as FOMO. That means individual and many professional investors are operating on emotion despite all the warnings because of Fear of Missing Out.

~ Brad Lamensdorf, "Investor Sentiment Turns Euphoric Over Stock Market Outlook: Watch Out!," LMTR, July 30, 2020

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson: "It's early in a new economic cycle and bull market"

We maintain our positive view for U.S. equity markets because it’s early in a new economic cycle and bull market. Last week’s correction was overdue and likely has another 5-7% downside. It’s healthy and we are buyers into weakness with a small/mid-cap and cyclical tilt.

~ Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley equity strategist, "Stocks could fall a further 7% after last week’s correction. But here’s why Morgan Stanley says that’s 'healthy,'" MarketWatch.com, June 15, 2020

Zacks: "The economy is bursting at the seams with pent-up economic demand" (2020)

Thanks to a strong economic foundation prior to the pandemic, the recovery is happening much quicker than expected. Investors have regained their confidence and stocks have skyrocketed more than 40% from their March lows.

The economy is bursting at the seams with pent-up economic demand. And as the national reopening continues to expand, stocks are expected to soar even more!

~ Zacks Investment Research, June 11, 2020

Dan Ferris on recent speculative trading

The RobinHood crowd is like a teenage girl who just saw a "bad boy" in a leather jacket. That he's destined to spend his life behind bars is nowhere in her mind. She's smitten.

~ Dan Ferris, tweet, June 9, 2020

Brian Schartz on the rush by investors to buy Covid-19 winners

Like Pavlov’s dogs, investors have rushed right back to many of the same incredibly valued equities, despite a clear and convincing outlook that a severe recession is about to play out in the United States and all around the world.  Central bankers have rung the bell, and investors responded as they have been conditioned. In some cases, investors have declared certain equities as “pandemic winners” and bid the shares to new all-time highs creating valuations that cannot be justified even if their businesses are strong for the duration of this crisis.  We simply contemplate the magnitude of the current situation compared to the housing crisis and the dot-com bust.  We are convinced that the magnitude of this recession will prove to be much larger than either of those events.  As a result, we foresee a meaningful “second wave” of selling in the markets in the coming months.  Bull markets are born at moments of despair, not days of central bank induced hope.

~ Brian Schartz, Downtown Associates Q1 Investor Letter, April 24, 2020

Peter Atwater on manic behavior: The Beatles, Beanie Babies and Tesla

Many will suggest that manias and panics routinely come and go, but history strongly cautions that they cluster. The Beanie Baby Bubble coincided with the peak of the dot.com bubble, and Beatlemania marked the mid-1960s market and mood peaks...

While Tesla may be followed by an even more extreme investor flash mob ahead, the recent clustering of manic behavior cautions not only that sentiment is topping, but that the current peak is extreme. Based on crowd behavior, 2020 could easily bookend the major 2011 low.

~ Peter Atwater, Financial Insyghts, "Tesla: A Flash Mob With Money," February 10, 2020

Mark Hulbert on market sentiment, index funds, and market timers

One indication that we’re a lot closer to the greed end of the spectrum comes from the widespread popularity today of buying and holding index funds. Judging by the 200 newsletters I monitor, market timers are struggling. It’s a good bet that just the opposite will be true at the bottom of the next bear market.

~ Mark Hulbert, "How the 1% at Davos make the same mistakes as we do about stocks and the economy," MarketWatch.com, January 10, 2020

Kevin O'Leary: "I have never seen a better environment in America, ever" (2019)

In all the years I've been an investor in private and public companies, I have never seen a better environment in America, ever.  And it's not because of tax reform.  It's deregulation over the last three years has set free all of my small cap companies in a way I've never seen... Whatever Washington is doing, keep the policy the same.

~ Kevin O'Leary, Markets Now interview, November 24, 2019

MUFG economist note to equity investors: "There is no risk" (2019)

Take risk off the table as a concern to be hedged. There is no risk. Bet on it.

~ Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, note to clients, December 12, 2019

(Reported by MarketWatch, "'Back up the truck and buy, buy, buy, because there is no risk," says MUFG economist," December 14, 2019

Ed Bugos: investors are "playing poker" and "calling the Fed's hand"

The difference between this new high in the stock market and the others (2016, 2013, 2011) that have occurred over the course of the latest unsoundly inflated global economic boom - besides how narrow and generally hollow it is - is that the other new highs were caused by an unexpected boost in the money supply that happened first while this one has been caused by expectations for a boost in the money supply (that's how they lower the rate of interest) that has yet to happen.

What that means my dear friends is that the bulls are playing poker. They have driven the stock averages to new heights and in doing so are calling the Fed's hand. If the Fed fails to cut rates and earnings don't come in particularly well, the market is likely to take a very big hit.

~ Edmond Bugos, July 24, 2019

Charles Clough questions whether U.S. stocks will be immune to selling pressure on Japanese stocks

If the (Tokyo) sell-off continues there will be some question as to whether we will be totally immune.

~ Charles Clough, strategist, Merrill Lynch, "NYSE, Tokyo Of Roughly Equal Value," Investor's Daily, March 23, 1990