Mark Zandi on the U.S. economy

President Trump is inheriting an economy that is about as good as it ever gets.  The U.S. economy is the envy of the rest of the world, as it is the only significant economy that is growing more quickly postpandemic than prepandemic.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, "Is Donald Trump inheriting the best economy in history?," MarketWatch, January 11, 2025

Mark Zandi: "odds that a downturn is dead ahead are receding"

What recession?  The consensus view that recession was virtually a slam dunk looks increasingly off base.  Yes, there will eventually be one, but odds that a downturn is dead ahead are receding.

~ Mark Zandi, tweet, June 11, 2023

Mark Zandi and Bernard Yaros on failure to raise the debt ceiling

Shutting the government down would not be an immediate hit to the economy, but a default would be a catastrophic blow to the nascent economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.  Global financial markets and the economy would be upended, and even if resolved quickly, Americans would pay for this default for generations, as global investors would rightly believe that the federal government’s finances have been politicized and that a time may come when they would not be paid what they are owed when owed it.  To compensate for this risk, they will demand higher interest rates on the Treasury bonds they purchase.  That will exacerbate our daunting long-term fiscal challenges and be a lasting corrosive on the economy, significantly diminishing it.

~ Mark Zandi and Bernard Yaros, "Playing a Dangerous Game With the Debt Limit," Moody Analytics, September 21, 2021

Mark Zandi on the risk of reopening the economy too soon

I think if we reopen too quickly and we see infections rise, get a second wave and that causes more business disruption, we may not shut down again, but certainly it'll scare people, spook people and weigh on the economy.  That would be the fodder for a depression.

Mark Zandi, "US risking a second wave and a depression," CNBC interview, 3:40 mark, May 8, 2020

Mark Zandi expects much stronger economic growth

The U.S. economy is set to experience much stronger growth as the middle of the decade approaches. Businesses are highly profitable and very competitive, households have reduced debt and are saving more, and the banking system is well-capitalized and liquid.  The job market is headed in right direction. Broadly speaking the economy is performing steadily better.

~ Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody's Analytics, "The economy is only going to get stronger: Mark Zandi," The Daily Ticker (Yahoo!Finance), January 30, 2014

(Zandi has a bullish outlook on the U.S. economy: he's forecasting 3% GDP growth this year and 4% growth in 2015.  He says better economic growth will also lead to more jobs. He estimates that 3 million new workers will be hired in 2015, up from 2.25 million in 2013 and 2012. That would mean the economy returns to full employment (a federal jobless rate of 5.5% to 6%) by 2016.)

Mark Zandi sees an improving economy in 2H 2011

Some of the headwinds that caused us to slow are turning into tail winds.

~ Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, "Why economists see a stronger second half in 2011," Associated Press, June 27, 2011

Mark Zandi on the U.S.'s fiscal mess

I think we're going to come to a - what I would call - a reasonably graceful resolution to the problem.

[...]

Let me give you some numbers. The deficit-to-GDP today is 9%. With an improving economy we'll probably get to a deficit-to-GDP of about 5%. To get to a sustainable deficit-to-GDP - one that's not causing our debt loads to rise and interest payments to increase - we need to get to 3% of GDP. So we have to close a 2% to GDP deficit gap. That's about $300 billion a year. I think we can address that: couple hundred billion in spending restraint, hundred billion in tax increase. If we do that and lay out a credible path to doing that over the next 5-7-10 years, I think we'll be just fine.

~ Mark Zandi, Yahoo Finance tech/ticker, January 5, 2011

Mark Zandi defends the American Empire based on blind faith in policymakers

We have big problems, the number one issue is our fiscal situation. In my view, it was very important for policymakers to act aggressively in response to the financial panic and the Great Recession, but as they say there is no free lunch. It did cost us, you can see it in our deficits and in our debt load. So, we've got a lot of hard work to do but I think we're up to the task and ultimately we will address the issue gracefully enough that we'll get through this reasonably well.

~Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody's, Yahoo! Tech Ticker interview, January 5th, 2011

Mark Zandi on the need for economic stimulus

Businesses are panicked and fighting for survival and slashing their payrolls. I think we’re trapped in a very adverse, self-reinforcing cycle. The downturn is intensifying, and likely to intensify further unless policy makers respond aggressively.

~ Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, "Economy Shed 598,000 Jobs in January," The New York Times, February 6, 2009

Mark Zandi on a proposed housing bailout

The total cost of the plan would ultimately be very modest. At the extreme, the upfront cost would be approximately $250 billion, assuming the federal government purchased all 2 million loans that are expected to end up in foreclosure through the end of the decade at a 30% discount to their original value. According to the FDIC, this is just about the ultimate cost to taxpayers (in today’s dollars) of the early 1990s savings and loan crisis via the Resolution Trust Corporation. Of course, the government would not lose all $250 billion, as many of these homeowners would be able to remain current on their new lower mortgage amount. Even if only half of homeowners were to be good payers, which seems pessimistic, then the ultimate cost to taxpayers will certainly be no more than that of the recently-enacted fiscal stimulus plan.

~ Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody's Economy.com, "Zandi: A Mortgage Bailout Would Cost up to $250 Billion," WSJ Economics blog, February 27, 2008