Kevin Duffy: "This kind of wild frenetic rotation is not unusual at the top of bubbles"

I think we’re in a rotation phase right now.  All of the speculators – young people and day traders – have been drawn into the casino, and they’re not going to leave until they’re flat broke: When the poker table shuts down, they move to the roulette section, and when that stops working, they go to the blackjack table.  This kind of wild frenetic rotation is not unusual at the top of bubbles.

~ Kevin Duffy, "The Next Bear Market Has Already Started," The Market, July 1, 2021

Kevin Duffy explains the casino effect

1/ Bubbles go parabolic - that's what they do. At the end, the average Joe gets an invitation, the crowd is unleashed (higher prices attract more buying), and risk amps up. The gambling analogy is apropos: the financial markets have been turned into a casino. 

2/ Casinos attract gamblers and worse, compulsive gamblers. Compulsive gambling is a progressive disease: the gambler is addicted and will increase his recklessness until he is wiped out. The speculator has progressed from Apple to Tesla, and now to GameStop. 

3/ He has gone from bidding up a real company (Apple) to absurd heights to a profitless dream (Tesla), making Elon Musk the richest man in the world, to wildly speculating in companies like GameStop and AMC in clear decline. 

4/ The casino is now packed. There is no one left to suck into the game. Those inside are trapped. They've been winning so long, they can't leave. They're hooked. You'll have to take them out in bodybags. 

5/ As tables start to lose, the gamblers will simply move to the remaining winning tables. This is why you'll see wild rotation at the top - speculators looking to gamble on any stock going up. 

6/ Eventually all of the tables are losers. The fate of the speculators is sealed. 

Btw, this compulsive gambler analogy also applies to central bankers. They're all-in on the Great Monetary Experiment since 1971. They'll never cry 'uncle,' and will be taken out in bodybags.

~ Kevin Duffy, tweet, February 23, 2021