Jeffrey Sachs on the end of American exceptionalism and rise of Asia

Most of the world population lives in Asia, about 60%.  For most of history, that means that roughly 60% of the world economy, world output, was produced in Asia, as best as one can tell when historians look back and try to recreate economic estimates.  In recent centuries, that changed decisively with the rise of Europe and of the north Atlantic because in the 19th and 20th centuries, of course, the United States rose to become the largest economy in the world.  Asia was eclipsed in this.  Not only eclipsed, of course, it was dominated by European imperial powers.

If you look around 1820 or so, Asia was still more than half of the world economy, but by 1950, after 150 years of the industrial age, dominated by Europe and the United States, the whole Asian economy had declined to around 20% of world output from what had been roughly 60%.  This meant China completely being eclipsed and of course in fact attacked and losing many wars, first to the West in the first and second Opium Wars to chaos during the so-called Taiping Rebellion in the middle of the 19th century to the extraterritorial privileges or rights or dominance of European powers in China at the end of the 19th century and then to Japanese invasion in several episodes, starting with the Sino-Japanese War in 1894-95 and then several Japanese invasions, in fact, in the 20th century and the massive invasions of the 1930s.  Civil war in China in the 1940s.  And this meant that by the time of the establishment of the Peoples' Republic of China in 1949, China had gone through about 110 years of devastating defeats of what China calls the "century of humiliation."  China's share of the world economy was estimated to be maybe 2% of world output and roughly 20% world population as of the 1950s.  In other words, China was completely eclipsed from its long historical role in the world for at least a millennium, by the way, from 500 to 1500 AD.  Before the beginning of the European ascendancy, China clearly dominated the world across many technologies: gunpowder, steam engine, paper currency, the compass, large scale ocean navigation, and one could go on and on, in fact.

So, the story that we see today, taken from a very, very long-term perspective in history is the return of China to the front ranks of power in the world and economic productivity and technology.  In a sense, China has returned to its more traditional role in the world, which one could see for much of the last 2,000 years, in fact.  The rise of China, in this sense, should be understood as a rebalancing of what was absolutely unbalanced, and that is a European-dominated world.

Of course, it's very hard for Europeans and Americans to understand that the idea of European dominance in the world had become an absolute natural standby, and that's been true for several hundred years actually where as Europe rose in power, as European empires dominated the other parts of the world, full ideologies, belief systems, rewriting of history, a lot of racism one can add, even by the leading thinkers of world history in the West, came to say, "Well, Europe's dominance is natural.  European cultural superiority, maybe racial superiority," but whatever the argument was, "European superiority is natural."

Of course, now we're at the end of that phase of history.  And one should understand, it's not only the return of China.  It's also the rapid development of India, it's the rapid development of southeast Asia, the so-called ASEAN countries, it's the rapid development of parts of west Asia in the Gulf countries, for example.  All of this is rather fundamentally ending the Euro-centric view of the world or what in the late 19th century to the early 21st century became the north Atlantic, NATO-centered vision of the world, and by the end of the 20th century became the American-centered vision of the world.

And when you have these temporary imbalances of economy and power...  The tendency is to put a bulwark under them in ideological or religious or some other philosophical sense to say, "That imbalance is natural."  In the United States, the idea of American exceptionalism is very deep.  The idea that, "Yes, of course, America rules the world" is a deep part of the belief system, not a superficial item.  

So the rise of China is viewed with alarm, it's viewed with disdain, it's viewed with fear.  It's not viewed with equanimity.  I don't know any American leaders that say, "Well, of course China's a big power that's had a long history of civilizational greatness so it's natural that China's doing well."  What you hear is, "China's the great threat to the world.  China's rise must be stopped.  We must contain China.  We must prepare for war.  China cheated and stole its way to economic recovery...  It's artificial; China will collapse."  In other words, many erroneous, superficial, biased, sometimes blatantly racist views to undergird this sense of superiority in the U.S. that built up over two centuries.

~ Jeffrey Sach, "Jeffrey Sachs: Chinese Statecraft and a New World Order," Glenn Diesen, 1:10 mark, May 2, 2025

Shaun Rein on how America's containment policies of China are backfiring

Containment policies don't work.  Now one of your previous guests, John Mearsheimer, has said he's 100% all-in on trying to contain China.  I think this is one of the most foolish, stupid policies that America could do.  One, as I've shown, Chinese companies have invested so much on innovation themselves, that they're now as good, if not better than the United States.  If America can build it, you can be sure that China eventually can, too.  It's either bigoted or stupid to say that Chinese can't catch up to Americans because China has the money, it has the government support and it has the STEM intellectual brains to try to catch up.  

Two, it hurts American companies like Intel, like Nvidia.  Nvidia has said that now their former client, Huawei, is now one of their biggest competitors.  So this was another mistake from the Mearsheimer school of thought of trying to contain China.  

And then third, more importantly, when you look at the bigger picture, I think a lot of countries in the Global South - I like to call them the Global Majority - they feel that the United States is bullying China and they're worried that they, too, could be bullied.  The United States went from being the liberators in the world, the good guys - they liberated the world from the Nazis, they liberated the world from a form of communism during the Soviet era that was not very productive economically - now they're really almost like triads or mafia, forcing other countries to follow whatever the United States wants.  And I think the Global Majority is angry at what the United States is doing.  I'll give an example: Malaysia has invested billions and billions of dollars because they want to be a base or locus for data centers.  But in his last week as president, Biden slapped export bans on high-end semiconductor chips to Malaysia.  And so Malaysia's plans over the last five years are gone...

So I think you're starting to see a deterioration of America's prestige, power and dominance in the world because people view them as bullying China and bullying other countries like Malaysia.  And that's why I start to see countries starting to move closer to China's orbit.

~ Shaun Rein, "Why China Brushes Off Trump's Tariffs," Thinkers Forum, March 1, 2025