Mike Adams on the coming collapse of the Trump administration (2025)

Prediction: We're going to start seeing resignations from the Trump administration.  It will start with people being FORCED out, possibly with Hegseth.  And then it will escalate as people FLEE the chaos and try to get far from the (political) blast damage radius.  The Trump administration is on the path of total self-destruction, and he's going to inflict trillions of dollars of irreversible damage on the U.S. economy and small businesses as he goes down with the Titanic.  This isn't 4D chess.  It's 2D cartoonish stupidity.  It takes a real idiot to do worse than the Democrats, but Trump is somehow managing it, not even 100 days into his new administration.  If he doesn't turn this ship around, it's over, and it won't be long before Trump is impeached and marched out of the White House as the U.S. economy collapses.  And no, I didn't vote for him.

~ Mike Adams, founder of Natural News, Twitter/X post, April 21, 2025

Intel's Pat Gelsinger makes a bold prediction

We will be the world's largest integrated design and manufacturer of silicon for the long-term.

~ Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO, "Inside Intel’s Bold $26 Billion U.S. Plan To Regain Chip Dominance," 19:10 mark, CNBC, November 6, 2021

Jim Chanos: bear market could go as deep as 1,800-2,000 on the S&P 500

I’ve been on the Street [since] 1980 [and] not one bear market has ever traded above nine times to 14 times the previous peak earnings.  If you think [S&P 500] earnings are peaking now at $200, that’s a long way down.  That’s 1,800 to 2,800 [on the S&P].  We are not anywhere near that.

~ Jim Chanos, "Short-selling legend Jim Chanos hints at risk of bear market unlike anything he’s experienced since starting on the Street in 1980," MarketWatch, January 31, 2023

(S&P 500 closed at 4076.60.)

Jeremy Siegel: "2023 is going to be a very good year for equities"

My feeling is that the stock market is anywhere from 10 to 15% undervalued on a long-term basis.  And I think 2023 is actually going to be a very good year for equities. 

~ Jeremy Siegel, "The Economy in 2023: Jeremy Siegel's Forecast," Wharton Business Daily, 10:35 mark, December 12, 2022

Ron Baron on the futility of macro predictions

Every time everyone tries to predict macro they're almost always wrong...  It's easy to get out of inflation, it's impossible to get out of deflation.  So we never predict anything about the economy or about the stock market.

~ Ron Baron, CNBC interview, 0:20 mark, August 25, 2022

Brian Chesky on the future of the office

I think that the office as we know it, is over.  We can't try to hold on to 2019 any more than 1950.  We have to move forward.

~ Brian Chesky, "Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky, who recently announced that employees could work from home forever, calls the office an 'anachronistic form' and 'from a pre-digital age'," Yahoo Finance, May 8, 2022

Kevin Duffy on prediction

The future is probabilistic, not certain.  The past is certain, but must be viewed probabilistically to have any predictive value.

~ Kevin Duffy, tweet, February 8, 2022

Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner on forecasting

There is plenty of room to stake out reasonable positions between the debunkers and the defenders of experts and their forecasts.  On the one hand, the debunkers have a point.  There are shady peddlers of questionable insights in the forecasting marketplace.  There are also limits to foresight that may just not be surmountable.  Our desire to reach into the future will always exceed our grasp.  But debunkers go too far when they dismiss all forecasting as a fool's errand.  I believe it is possible to see into the future, at least in some situations and to some extent, and that any intelligent, open-minded, and hardworking person can cultivate the requisite skills.

Call me an "optimistic skeptic."

~ Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting, p. 6

Lawrence Lindsey on the decade ahead

The next decade is going to be a scramble for survival.  You need to think about it that way and prepare in order to have a prosperous future.

~ Lawrence B. Lindsey, "'Currency War' with Lawrence Lindsey," Stansberry Investor Hour, 53:45 mark, August 12, 2021

Jenny Johnson: "the next decade is not going to have the same tailwinds"

We've just come off a decade where there's been massive central banks pumping money into the system. You've had interest rates at historically low levels...  You can't fall off the floor; they're probably not going  much lower.  So they're either going to stay there for a while or go up...  Look at the passive bond indexes: Their durations have expanded over the last 15 years.  That becomes a different risk.  Equity markets where 6 stocks accounted for 50% of the return in the last 10 years.  There have been great tailwinds this last decade, but I could say one thing for sure is "the next decade is not going to have the same tailwinds."  So there's going to be some real challenges there.

~ Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton CEO, Yahoo Finance interview, July 14, 2021

President Biden: "We're now on track for the highest economic growth in 40 years" (2021)

We're in the midst of an historic economic recovery.  And because our successful vaccination program strategy has been working and the immediate relief through the American Rescue Plan has brought back our economy from the worst economic crisis in nearly a century, America is now on track.  We're now on track for the highest economic growth in 40 years. 

~ President Joe Biden, "Remarks by President Biden At Signing of An Executive Order Promoting Competition in the American Economy," White House state dining room, July 9, 2021

Peter Drucker on prediction

The best way to predict the future is to create it.

~ Peter Drucker

Tom Slater on growth investing and prediction

Many people are focused on trying to predict economic variables.  They are inherently extremely difficult, if not impossible, to predict.  At the same time, there are a lot of predictable trends—in communications, computation, machine learning, energy generation and storage, gene sequencing, and synthetic biology.  We focus on predictable trends and the opportunities they create.

~ Tom Slater, "Why Moderna, Illumina, or Meituan Could Be the Next Tesla Stock," Barron's, June 18, 2021

Cathie Wood predicts $250,000 Bitcoin price if companies step up (2021)

If all corporations in the U.S. were to put 10% of their cash into bitcoin that alone would add $200,000 to the bitcoin price.

~ Cathie Wood, "Bitcoin could hit $250,000 if U.S. companies opt to do this, says Cathie Wood," MarketWatch, February 17, 2021

(Bitcoin closed at $51,376.)

Kevin Duffy's predictions for the next 4 years under a Biden administration

1) National debt will go from $27T to over $40T (that's probably conservative). 

2) For all the talk of unity, the Dems will amp up a domestic war on terror to muzzle dissenting views (not just conservatives; this will be expanded to include libertarians). 

3) The stock market bubble will burst and the Fed's balance sheet will triple (going from $7T to over $20T) in response. 

4) Inflation will become a problem and interest rates will rise. The 30-year bond yield, currently 1.84%, will be over 5%. 

5) Some form of universal basic income will be implemented.

Let's circle back in 4 years, assuming I haven't been kicked off Facebook or thrown in jail for being an insurrectionist and traitor.

~ Kevin Duffy, Facebook post, January 20, 2021

Richard Ebeling on the coming decade and challenge for freedom lovers

The United States starts this third decade of the 21st century with a new Democratic Administration coming into the White House and possibly dominating Congress, depending upon two Senatorial runoff elections in Georgia. But whether there is a Democratic-controlled federal government or a divided government with the Republicans holding a slim majority in the Senate, the worst of the collectivist fads and fashions will be pushed over the coming years. Climate change-based controls and centralized planning will be pushed aggressively; demands will be made for more regulation of business in the name of “social justice” and corporate “social responsibility;” calls will be made for increased taxes on “the rich” and not so rich to cover more of the redistributive plunder games that are the mother’s milk of political power and privilege; race and gender warfare will be ratcheted up on college campuses, corporate boardrooms, and the shop floors of private enterprises, great and small. 

[...]

In other words, there appears to be a groundswell of economic ignorance and stupidity facing us, and even more than usual. What this means for friends of freedom and practitioners of sound, free market economics, however, is a need to redouble our efforts, and not wallow in despair and disappointment. Bad policies inescapably bring about undesirable and counterproductive effects. But their very failures can serve as openings to more reasonable and rational policies looking to the future. If these are to have a chance, the case has to be made for a freer and more open society. That requires all of us to not turn away from this challenge as this new year and this new decade begin.

~ Richard Ebeling, "Freedom versus Paternalism in the Coming Decade," AIER.org, January 3, 2021

Marc Faber: "The Chinese economy will be the size of Europe and America combined"

If I were an American, I would hold some assets outside America and I would not only listen to the "China bashers," but also try to understand that the Chinese economy will be the size of Europe and America combined...  And whether you like the Chinese or not, and whether you're racist or not, I think that portfolios will have to own some assets in China, whether it's real estate or stocks or bonds.  In all the global indices, China is way underweight.  I have many friends - they invest in China - and they find world class companies.  Nobody can deny that Netease or Alibaba or Tencent are not world class companies.  There are also industrial companies.  There are also beverage companies that are world class. When Grant [Williams] asked the question, "How do you protect yourself?", I think you need an international diversification.  I think China is an option. 

~ Marc Faber, "The End Game Ep. 8 - Dr. Marc Faber," The Grant Williams Podcast, 1:03:50 mark, October 7, 2020

Ronald Stöferle et al. on Austrian School adherents who predicated the collapse of the 1920s boom

The Great Depression was predicted by several economists of the Austrian School: in Austria, Ludwig von Mises recognized the problem when it was still in an early stage of its development, and told his colleagues in 1924 that the then largest Austrian bank, Creditanstalt, would ultimately become insolvent. Friedrich August von Hayek published several articles in early 1929, in which he predicted the collapse of the US economic expansion. Felix Somary uttered numerous warnings in the late 1920s. In the US, the economists Benjamin Anderson and E.C. Harwood warned that the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve would lead to a crisis. However, as was Somary, they were widely ignored.

~ Rahim Taghnizadegan, Ronald Stöferle, Mark Valek and Heinz Blasnik, Austrian School for Investors (2015), p. 62

Stanley Druckenmiller on debt and future stock returns

We have borrowed so much that I’m skeptical that three to five years out that equities will give us any kind of return.

~ Stanley Druckenmiller, Robin Hood Investors Conference, October 27, 2020

(quoted in "This billionaire protégé of George Soros has returned 30% a year for decades — here’s his gloomy take on what’s next in the stock market," by Shawn Langlois, MarketWatch.com, October 28, 2020

Kevin Duffy on dollar debasement

It took USD 100 years to go from 1/20 oz of gold to 1/2000.  How long will it take to go to 1/200,000?  I'm guessing less than 10.

~ Kevin Duffy, tweet, August 8, 2020