Rolf Dobelli on the illusion of skill

In certain areas, skill plays no role whatsoever.  In his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, [Daniel] Kahneman describes his visit to an asset management company.  To brief him, they sent him a spreadsheet showing the performance of each investment adviser over the past eight years.  From this, a ranking was assigned to each: number 1, 2, 3, and so on in descending order.  This was compiled every year.  Kahneman quickly calculated the relationship between the years' rankings.  Specifically, he calculated the correlation of the rankings between year 1 and year 2, between year 1 and year 3, year 1 and year 5, up until year 7 and year 8.  The result: pure coincidence.  Sometimes the adviser was at the very top and sometimes the very bottom.  If an adviser had a great year, this was neither bolstered by previous years nor carried into subsequent years.  The correlation was zero.  And yet the consultants pocketed bonuses for their performance.  In other words, the company was rewarding luck rather than skill.

 ~ Rolf Dobelli, The Art of Thinking Clearly, p. 283

 

Tony Deden on the investment business

There's a difference between an investment practice and an investment business.  In a business, you seek to do what the customer wants.  A practice is that you do the right thing by the customer regardless of what he wants or what he thinks he needs.  You seek to do the right thing.  And that's very difficult, actually.  It's not very popular.

~ Tony Deden, "Tony Deden - Master Value Investor," State of the Markets, 40:50 mark, January 10, 2025

Kevin Duffy on competitive edges in the investment business

The keys to the investment business are developing competitive edges and finding clients who will allow you to apply those edges over time.

~ Kevin Duffy, "Fade to Black," The Coffee Can Portfolio, p. 14, October 22, 2024

Kevin Duffy on the Dalbar effect

The dirty little secret of the asset management business is that the sophistication level of one’s clients is paramount.  If they constantly chase what’s hot and panic out of what’s not, all the hard work by the portfolio manager can be negated.  I refer to this pesky boat anchor as the “Dalbar effect,” after an annual study by Dalbar, Inc.  In it, they document how actual investor returns deviate significantly from published returns due to the poor timing of a firm’s clients.  

Aggressive marketing and client quality are inversely related, although Dalbar is unlikely to admit this to their institutional investor clientele.  BlackRock is no doubt an asset gathering machine, but where are the customers’ yachts?  According to my calculations, over the past ten years BLK’s all-important equity iShares franchise (32.5% of base fees in Q3) suffered a headwind (Dalbar effect) of 5.3% per year.  This effectively cut published returns in half.

~ Kevin Duffy, "Fade to Black," The Coffee Can Portfolio, p. 12, October 22, 2024

Phil Grant on declining profitability in the asset management industry

Profitability at asset managers has slipped for the past two years and is likely to decline further through 2028 as investors increasingly opt for products with lower fees, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to a new study. 

The study of 40 global asset managers including BlackRock, State Street, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs by German financial strategy advisor zeb Consulting showed their profits in 2023 slipped to 8.2 basis points (0.082%) of assets under management from 10.1 basis points in 2021 and 9.4 points in 2022.

"The good years are over for now," zeb senior consultant Fränk Hamelius, one of the study's authors, said on Monday.

Over the past five years, the assets under management of the firms studied have risen by 8.8% annually on average, but their operating profits have only gone up by 0.7% per annum, it said.

~ Phil Grant, Almost Daily Grant's, October 21, 2024

David Swensen on the investment industry

The mutual fund industry is not an investment management industry.  It's a marketing industry.

~ David F. Swensen, chief investment officer at Yale University from 1985-2021