Abby Joseph Cohen on highly educated immigrants in the U.S.

Two-thirds of the Ph.Ds working in the U.S. in medicine and engineering are immigrants.

~ Abby Joseph Cohen, business professor at Columbia University, Barron's Mid-Year Roundtable, July 13, 2024

Abby Cohen and James Anderson on U.S. immigration controls

Abby Cohen: The fastest growth in job creation is at either end of the skills spectrum—high-level health care, information technology, and so on, and low-end health care and hospitality. Those broad areas are largely filled by immigrants. Over the last handful of years, the immigration rate is down. Visas for people who have special skills or visas for students are down 20% to 40% since 2015.



James Anderson: It is amazing to have seen America throw away its biggest comparative advantage in the way it has, particularly with regard to highly skilled, inventive people. The percentage of your great companies founded by immigrant families is staggering. It is not talked about enough.

~ Abby Cohen and James Anderson, 2020 Barron's Roundtable, January 6, 2020

Abby Cohen on the early history of Procter & Gamble

Procter & Gamble was founded 180 years ago. The company really grew during the Civil War, when they supplied the Union Army with soap and candles. What are some of their innovations? Ivory Soap, 1879, the soap that floats. My favorite product, Tide, which was introduced in 1946. Crest in 1955, the first toothpaste with fluoride.

~ Abby Cohen, Barron's Roundtable, January 6, 2020

Abby Joseph Cohen on the global economy: "signs of sustainable growth everywhere"

The economic fundamentals are good. One of the reasons 2017 was a good year for the markets was because the economy accelerated globally. There are signs of sustainable growth everywhere; the momentum will continue for a while.

~ Abby Joseph Cohen, Barron’s Roundtable, January 13, 2018

Abby Joseph Cohen: "The intermediate and longer-term view remains bright" (2000)

The intermediate and longer-term view remains bright.

~ Abby Joseph Cohen, as quoted in The Wall Street Journal, September 22, 2000

(WSJ: Stocks did benefit from another round of bullish comments from Goldman Sachs investment strategist Abby Joseph Cohen.  She published a report saying oil, the euro and 3rd quarter corporate profits will prove to be "short-lived" worries.)

Abby Joseph Cohen remains bullish after stocks bounce from March-May 2000 selloff

We had gotten to notably low levels of valuation.  [Now,] we're back in the range of where we should be.

~ Abby Joseph Cohen, as quoted in The Wall Street Journal, June 5, 2000

Abbey Joseph Cohen on missing the stock market rally

Short-term concerns about the automatic spending cuts notwithstanding, my models peg fair value for the S&P 500 index (^GSPC) at 1,575 - a 4 percent premium to Thursday's close. There are other models, including the Fed model, that show fair value as high as 1,700 or 1,750.

[The rally] is supported by improving fundamentals in the U.S. economy and, very importantly, valuation. [With] equities at a (price-to-earnings) ratio at 14 times earnings, they're just not expensive.

Our sense is that there is a lot of cash on the sidelines.  Investors may do well to put that money to work in stocks - or to shift out of longer-term bonds into stocks, the better investment.

But even in a rising interest rate environment, equity bull markets historically retain some strength for a while, as the market responds to an improving economy.   ~ Abbey Joseph Cohen, Senior Investment Strategist, CNBC, March 1, 2013

Abby Cohen on recession, the Fed, and inflation (2011)

We don't see a recession anywhere on the horizon.

I think the Fed has done a terrific job overall these past several years.

It's hard to see where a dramatic rise in inflation will come from.

~ Abby Cohen, Goldman Sachs, as appeared on CNBC, April 6, 2011

Abby Joseph Cohen still can't see double-dip, targets 12-mo S&P 1450

One can certainly understand why investors are so concerned. We have gone through an extraordinary experience between the credit crisis, very severe recession and extremely volatile markets.

But now that we're seeing that the U.S. economy has some traction, and the likelihood of a double-dip recession is remote, it's time to look again, not just at so-called risky securities like stocks, but to do the really hard work on valuation. Because a security that seems safe, if it is priced too high, is not safe.

I would put quite a few bonds in that category. To be buying a bond at record low yields makes one think that there is now risk there. Investors have to recognize that there may be risk in the so-called safe securities, but there's also the opportunity cost of not participating in some other securities.

When the economy does better, things like stocks and commodities tend to rise in price. U.S. equities are now trading between 13 and 14 times earnings, and that is significantly below the historical average. That suggests that there's good value there. Our 12-month market forecast for the S&P is 1450.

~Abby Joseph Cohen, president and senior investment strategist of Global Markets Institute, Goldman Sachs, "Experts agree: Get over your fear and get back into stocks", USA Today, December 17th, 2010

Abby Joseph Cohen on the rarity of double-dips

Our sense is that a double-dip, while it can't be ruled out, is extremely unlikely. First of all, they don't happen that often and the last time one did happen a few decades ago, it was a conscious, policy decision by Paul Volcker to really squeeze inflation out of the system. Our sense is that we're in for a period of slow growth but not another recession. So, double-dip, not the most likely scenario.

~Abby Joseph Cohen, president and senior investment strategist of Global Markets Institute, Goldman Sachs, CNBC, September 16th, 2010

Abby Joseph Cohen on the risk averse investor in late 2010

In the S&P500 we think fair value by year end is something on the order of 1200. And, of course, this is a market because investors are so risk averse, of very little confidence, they're not willing to look out as much into the future as much as they normally would. So, we think that when investors finally get to the point that they're willing to price-in the outlook for 2011, prices will move higher still for the S&P500.

By the way, this low confidence level and risk aversion is not seen just in the US equity market, but in developed markets around the world, including Europe.

~Abby Joseph Cohen, president and senior investment strategist of Global Markets Institute, Goldman Sachs, CNBC, October 4th, 2010

Abby Joseph Cohen on the stop and go economy

It looks to us as if the economy is growing more slowly than it was at the beginning of the year but we just don't see the preconditions for double-dip. So, our judgment is real GDP growth of about 1.5% for the next several months, followed by re-acceleration.

~Abby Joseph Cohen, president and senior investment strategist of Global Markets Institute, Goldman Sachs, CNBC, October 4th, 2010

Abby Cohen sees S&P 500 at 1250-1300

Barron's: Abby, do you have a price target for the S&P 500 this year?

Cohen: We see a range of 1250 to 1300, and the market might not be at the high end at the end of the year if economic growth starts to slow in the second half. We might not see multiple expansion. Instead, stocks will move higher on the basis of profit and revenue improvement. We're forecasting S&P 500 earnings of $75 to $76 this year, and $90 next year. But it is too soon to be paying for 2011 earnings. Importantly, revenue will increase this year, by about 10% to 12%. Another thing that will distinguish 2010 is a decline in volatility.

~ Abby Cohen, "New Strategies for a New Era," Barron's, January 18, 2010

Abby Joseph Cohen: Economic slowdown good for investors (2006)

Our feeling is that the economy is slowing and this is good news for investors. We think that profit growth over the next 12 months will be robust enough to justify a 10% rise in prices.

~ Abby Joseph Cohen, as appeared on CNBC, October 17, 2006

Ken Fisher on why the demotion of Abby Cohen is bullish

On Mar. 13 Goldman Sachs demoted market strategist Abby Cohen for having been bullish too long. That day marked the bottom of the back half of what I think is a double-bottom whose first bottom was in January. I see Goldman's move as bullish. That once famous market timer Joe Granville materialized out of nowhere saying that we are beginning a bad bear market. I'd bet against Joe any time. Gloomy people are saying that we are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. They said the same thing in 1998. Bullish!

~ Ken Fisher, "Dear Abby," Forbes, April 21, 2008

Abby Cohen: Fed's got our back (2001)

I am assuming this will be a very short-lived slowdown because policy makers have significant tools at their disposal. The Federal Reserve in adjusting rates last week stood up and said, ‘We are watching and will do more if necessary.’ That serves as a confidence builder.

~ Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs, January 15, 2001

Abby Cohen remains bullish for 2000

I used to be a superbull. Now I'm just a bull.

What we're telling our portfolio manager clients is that technology deserves to be a core holding. That said, we're not as super-enthusiastic because they're not as cheap [as at the start of 1999].

[In the past, many investors treated technology as a cyclical industry when it deserved better. Technology-related capital spending has quadrupled as a percentage of United States gross domestic product.]

In 1999, investors said 'Eureka.' It's a secular industry that's brought about an enormous structural change. This was an important year of inflection. Technology stocks finally got some respect.

[The sector is now fairly valued.] People should not have just one or two names, but a handful. And it should not be the driving force in a portfolio.

~ Abby Joseph Cohen, "Goldman Strategist Remains Bullish, Though Less So, for 2000," The New York Times, December 31, 1999

Bill Laggner on the fate of Abby Cohen

I really can't feel too sorry for Abby Cohen. By the end of 2008 she'll go to Florida, buy a house, and do needlepoint. On the weekends she'll be hanging out with Alan Greenspan and Angelo Mozilo playing shuffleboard. ...That is, unless they get tossed in the Big House.

Bill Laggner, Bearing Asset Management, December 4, 2007

Abby Cohen: S&P 500 will rise 14% by end of 2008

[The Standard & Poor's 500 Index will rise 14 percent by the end of next year to 1,675] as recession fears fade.

U.S. stocks will offer moderate gains and will dramatically outperform bonds over a 12-month horizon. Recession will likely be avoided, due to strength in exports and capital spending by corporations and governments, and thanks to a vigilant and flexible Federal Reserve.

~ Abby Joseph Cohen, Chief Investment Strategist, Goldman Sachs, "Goldman's Cohen Sees S&P 500 Rising 14% by 2008's End," Bloomberg.com, December 4, 2007

Abby Cohen: "fundamentals in very good shape"

We think that what happened last week in the markets will prove to be primarily a market event… When we take a look at the S&P and the Dow, our feeling is that the fundamentals supporting these stock markets are, in fact, in very good shape.

It appears to us that things are proceeding in a good way – moderate inflation, good growth, and the profit reports for the 2nd quarter have actually been quite good.

We get paid to look around the corner and into the future, and over the next several months and quarters we think that the equity market looks to be in good condition. We don’t see an economic recession, we think that corporate profits continue to grow at a moderate pace, and importantly valuation – we think – is not at all stretched in the equity market. Indeed, the S&P 500 is currently trading at under 16 times earnings. Normally when inflation is under 3% the average P/E multiple is 18 ½ times. So we’re below where we normally would be on a P/E ratio basis. Using the more sophisticated dividend discount model, or discounted cash flow models, we believe that the appropriate year-end value for the S&P 500 is about 1600, or about 10% above where we are now.

We believe that many of these companies in the financial services industry are still in very good condition. What we know, for example, is commercial banks have been applying very good lending standards and the problems seem to have existed among those lenders who may or may not be part of the S&P 500 who relaxed those standards too much.

~ Abby Joseph Cohen, chief U.S. portfolio strategist, Goldman Sachs, as appeared on CNBC, July 31, 2007 at 9:00 am