Jane Fraser sees a "mild, manageable" recession

I think everyone's converging now in the States more around a mild, manageable recessionary scenario driven by the strength that we've got in the labor markets.

[...]

The vulnerabilities you normally expect heading into slower economic growth don't exist at the moment: strong corporate balance sheets, strong consumer balance sheets and banks in very good health as well.

~ Jane Fraser, Citi CEO, CNBC interview in Davos, 1:55 and 2:55 mark, January 17, 2023

Joseph Ayoub on how the FTX cryptocurrency crash is contained

We think Bitcoin and ETH remain a too small part of the market to cause broader financial market contagion, with a total crypto market cap size of $890 billion vs $41 trillion for U.S. equities.  The FTX shortfall is still relatively small in comparison to other crypto events, such as Luna ($40 billion lost) or market cap losses in public tech names.

~ Joseph Ayoub, Citigroup digital asset analyst, "FTX's bust and crypto crash come with two silver linings," Yahoo!Finance, November 14, 2022

BusinessWeek: Robert Rubin collects $118 million in pay at Citigroup

Even once-revered former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, who, according to compensation data tracker Equilar, collected $118 million in pay between 1999 and 2006 while serving as director and senior counselor at Citigroup, has taken some heat.

~ BusinessWeek, "Bailout Money Could Have More Strings Attached," January 26, 2009

Bill Miller plugs Citigroup stock (2005)

Citigroup chief financial officer Sallie Krawchek said recently on CNBC that it was "credit nirvana," the best environment they had seen in almost 15 years, and Citigroup raised its dividend another 10%.

Who would park their money in cash at 2% and pay taxes when they could get 3.7% in tax-advantaged dividends in Citigroup stock and own a piece of the world's largest financial-services firm, one that is perfectly well-positioned to be the banker to the developing world's burgeoning consumers?

~ Bill Miller, portfolio manager, Legg Mason Value Trust, "Good Times Are Coming!," Time, March 8, 2005

Bloomberg: Robert Rubin paid over $150 million working for Citigroup

[Robert] Rubin has been criticized by investors including Smith Asset Management's William Smith for collecting more than $150 million in pay in a decade while failing to steer [Citigroup's former CEO Chuck] Prince away from subprime mortgage securities that led to $17.4 billion of net losses in the past three quarters.

~ Bloomberg, "Citigroup Says Robert Rubin to Give Up Committee Role," August 25, 2008, by Bradley Keoun

Citigroup CAO: "Citi is among the best capitalized banks in the world"

Today Citi is among the best capitalized banks in the world with a Tier 1 Capital Ratio at the end of the second quarter of 8.7%.

~ Don Callahan, Citigroup Chief Administrative Officer, New York, "Citi Has Solved Its Capital Issue," letter-to-the-editor, The Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2008

Citigroup on credit losses

Losses may extend beyond where we've seen historical levels go. We are in uncharted territory.

~ Gary Crittenden, CFO Citigroup, Wall Street Journal, April 19, 2008

Short seller Doug Kass getting long financials

While the negatives of the credit cycle, the dilutive effect of the industry's refinancings and other factors cannot be dismissed, quite frankly, I can make the case that we are now at an unprecedented point of time to get long financials.

I have added Bank of America (BAC) to my banking basket of Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC).

~ Doug Kass, "Kass: I'm Putting My Money in the Banks," TheStreet.com, May 29, 2008

Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Tal Alsaud on Chuck Prince and Citigroup

Bartiromo: Lets talk about one of your big holdings, Citigroup. Several of the company's largest holders have recently been net sellers. What does [CEO] Chuck Prince need to do?

Prince Alwaleed: I met with Sandy Weill and Chuck Prince a month ago at the George V Hotel in Paris, and we discussed the promise from Chuck that he will deliver good results. If I can quote him, he said: "Prince, we have put the big problems of Citi behind us, and we have to move our shares to above 50."

Bartiromo: So how long a grace period are you giving Chuck Prince?

Prince Alwaleed: The grace period is over. You can quote me on that. Right now we are looking to the results in the next few weeks and....I have full confidence that [Citi] will deliver. This is the No. 1 company in the world. It has equity of $400 billion and assets of $1.4 trillion. So no more excuses.....Excuses are finished. Now we are at war. Citigroup has won the internal war by cleaning up all the Enron residuals, WorldCom, the European scandal. Now we have to win the external war...make good investments...and that should lift the price of the stock. That's it. I told him, as [Citi's] biggest shareholder, we have to win the external war. Thank you, Mr. Chuck Prince. Now, the Prince of Saudi Arabia tells the Prince of New York: Go to war, and I am backing you 100%.

~ "For Citi, 'No More Excuses'," BusinessWeek, April 3, 2006, interview by Maria Bartiromo

Jon Markman will eat his column if Citigroup or JPMorgan Chase turn around by the end of the year

If Citigroup or JPMorgan Chase beat any of the above-mentioned defensive stocks this year (JNJ, MO, MRK, MCD, HON, UTX, MMM) in a freakish turnaround, I will eat this column on a live webcast at noon Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2008.

~ Jon Markman, "10 market predictions for a glum '08," MSN.Money, January 4, 2008

Pimco bullish on bank debt

The fact that the banking sector has attracted fresh capital in the last couple of months is huge. We've been playing defense for the better part of two years, and the question we've been asking ourselves is when to go on offense. In the banking sector, we've started to do that.

~ Mark Kiesel, Executive vice president, Pimco, "Pimco Shows Alwaleed Isn't Only One in Love With Citi," Bloomberg, February 13, 2008

CIBC: Citigroup has the single highest exposure to high LTV mortgage loans

High [loan-to-value] mortgage loans is the greatest risk pool of U.S. consumer loans, and Citigroup has the single highest exposure to it.

~ Analysts at CIBC World Markets, "Citigroup has biggest exposure to riskiest loans: analyst," MarketWatch, December 5, 2007, by John Spence

(The analysts estimated that Citigroup will incur losses on such loans in the range of $4 billion to $6.5 billion in 2008, or between 31% and 51% of its third-quarter 2007 total loss reserve. As a result of higher estimated provision for losses, CIBC cut its 2008 profit estimate for Citigroup by almost 10% to $2.95 a share.)

Richard Bove on Citigroup: "Best banking franchise in the world," expects stock to double

[Citigroup] stock is now yielding 7%. The company has a $24 billion free cash flow. The dividend costs the company roughly $10.5 billion. So the company has no problem in paying that dividend. In addition, the company is perceived by at least the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, to be a well capitalized bank, which means that it's paying the lowest FDIC premium possible... If you don't have to worry about the dividend, if it is a well capitalized institution, then as these writeoffs dissipate over the next few quarters, then the earnings of Citigroup will start to rise again.

And the stock is just not reflecting that. All it's reflecting is the worst of the worst... There's a generalized panic out there; there's a hysteria. Each analyst is jumping on top of the other one, trying to argue for a bigger amount of writedown... And as a result of these, if you will, cacophony of misery that's coming out of the analyst community, these stocks have fallen to levels which are just unrealistic in terms of what the fundamentals of the companies offer.

If people want to look through the cycle, if they want to look through the writeoffs, I think from a current price of $29-30 a share, over the next couple of years the stock should double in price... The company's earnings power is considerable. It's the best banking franchise in the world... The value of that franchise is simply being lost as people worry themselves to death over what the size of the next writeoff will be.

~ Richard Bove, Punk Ziegel & Co., Bloomberg Video, November 27, 2007

(Citigroup stock closed at $30.32 per share, down $0.38.)

CIBC analyst reiterates "underweight" on Citigroup after $7.5 billion Abu Dhabi infusion

When we downgraded Citigroup shares at the beginning of the month, we stated that it needed to raise equity, sell assets, and cut its dividend in order to shore up its capital base. Now that it has raised $7.5 billion in equity, we wait for it to sell assets and cut its dividend.

~ Meredith Whitney, analyst, CIBC World Markets, "Citigroup gets $7.5 billion infusion from Abu Dhabi," MarketWatch, November 27, 2007

(Whitney, who received death threats after she recently downgraded her rating the bank, said she is now waiting for the other shoe to drop.)

CIBC analyst receives death threat on Citigroup downgrade

The analyst whose downgrade of Citigroup Inc sparked a broad stock market sell-off on Thursday said she has received several death threats stemming from her research, the Times of London said.

Meredith Whitney of CIBC World Markets Inc late Wednesday downgraded Citigroup to "sector underperformer," saying the largest U.S. bank by assets might need to raise more than $30 billion of capital and cut its dividend.

~ Reuters, "CIBC analyst receives death threat," November 4, 2007

Allan Sloan: "Why on earth should we protect banks from their mistakes?"

If Citi's only problem is that it can't liquidate its SIVs without a profit hit, too bad. If Citi's very existence is at risk, I don't think we dare let it fail, because that would drag down institutions throughout the world. But if the bank needs help, its shareholders should have to pay. Bigtime.

Step one would be to eliminate its common stock dividend, currently more than $10 billion a year. Step two would be to force Citi to raise the capital it needs by selling new stock at a price well below its recent $42 a share. That would force holders to either ante up or have their Citi stake diluted. That just might inflict enough pain on shareholders that someone other than underlings would pay for Citi's SIV sloppiness.

In any event, if we believe in markets, Citi should have to take its chances. We small fry take chances when we borrow, and we pay the price if we're wrong. Big fish should have to do the same.

~ Allan Sloan, "Citigroup: 'Gimme shelter'," Fortune, October 29, 2007 (Nov. 12 issue)

Citi: "SIV accounting is proper"

Citi is confident that its SIV accounting is proper and in thorough accordance with all applicable rules and regulations.

~ Christina Pretto, a bank spokeswoman, Citigroup, "Citigroup CEO Plans to ResignAs Losses Grow," The Wall Street Journal, November 3, 2007, by Robin Sidel, Monica Langley and Gregory Zuckerman

Ted Wolff: "I don't think Citi is broken"

I don't think Citi is broken. The real issue is what's on the balance sheet.

[Although an analyst this week suggested that Citigroup should slash its dividend to boost its capital, Mr. Wolff said there were other ways to address the bank's capital adequacy, such as selling its 80% stake in Student Loan Corp. or stakes in some foreign investments.]

They have plenty of assets that they can sell that would have no impact on the long-term performance of the bank and would take worry out of the market. Just by shrinking the balance sheet they would give shareholders comfort.

~ Ted Wolff, executive at Solaris Asset Management, "Citigroup CEO Plans to ResignAs Losses Grow," The Wall Street Journal, November 3, 2007, by Robin Sidel, Monica Langley and Gregory Zuckerman

(Solaris Asset Management is a New York investment manager that has more than $1.5 billion in assets and would consider buying Citigroup stock if it gets somewhat cheaper.)

Chuck Prince on playing the game of musical chairs

When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will get complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing.

The depth of the pools of liquidity is so much larger than it used to be that a disruptive event now needs to be much more disruptive than it used to be.

At some point, the disruptive event will be so significant that instead of liquidity filling in, the liquidity will go the other way. I don’t think we’re at that point.

~ Chuck Prince, Citigroup CEO, "Citigroup chief stays bullish on buy-outs," Financial Times, July 9, 2007