Jul 24, 2026

Dwight D. Eisenhower on the costs of the arms race with the Soviet Union

Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.  This world in arms is not spending money alone.  It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children.  The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities.  It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population.  It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals.  It is some fifty miles of concrete pavement.  We pay for a single fighter with a half-million bushels of wheat.  We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people...  This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense.  Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.

~ President Dwight D. Eisenhower, "Chance for Peace" speech, April 16, 1953 

(Eisenhower delivered the address to the American Society of Newspaper Editors in Washington, D.C. - broadcast nationwide - shortly after Joseph Stalin’s death and early in his presidency.  The passage highlights the human and economic costs of the arms race, comparing military spending to resources that could instead fund schools, power plants, hospitals, housing, and food.)

Eisenhower's "Cross of Iron" Speech - Clio 

Jul 22, 2026

Kevin Duffy on the Austrian case for free trade

The Austrian (praxeological) method involves deductive reasoning, thought experiments, methodological individualism.  The only way to refute a logical argument is with better logic.  In trade, party A trades with B. Both do so because they benefit.  More accurately, because they expect to benefit.  Both expect to get more through the trade than they give up.  This doesn't mean in a week or a year neither will have regrets, but they do so because they expect to benefit. 

Now party C comes along and wants to interfere.  There are several problems: 

1. Knowledge - Does party C know something that A and B do not? 

2. Objectivity and altruism - Is party C above self-interest? 

3. Motive - By interfering, is party C benefiting at the expense of A and B?

4. Morality - What right does party C have to interfere?

Compounding this problem is that the state (a territorial monopolist on the use of force) acts as agent for party C.  It uses violence to interfere.  The state itself is not above self-interest; it has its own motives.  It benefits by being a broker in political favors.  Finally, there is the cost of maintaining the state, which is paid through violence (taxation). 

It's crystal clear who benefits from free trade (the people) and who benefits from attacking it (the state and special interests seeking protection and privileges).  This is where the intellectuals come in: They are needed in order to blind people to being fleeced.

~ Kevin Duffy

10 ways to Navigate Trade in the Food Industry 

Jul 17, 2026

Jim Chanos on bull and bear markets

Bull markets, you put a premium on promises and bear markets, you put a discount on reality.  And we're clearly in the former right now.

~ Jim Chanos,  "Jim Chanos: The AI Bubble Is 'Much Worse' Than Dot-Com," RiskReversal Media, 45:40 mark, July 17, 2026

 

Jun 18, 2026

Grant's on how CEOs of AI builders see massive demand swamping supply

Open before us is page 8 of the June 8 edition of The Transcript, a weekly roundup of earnings-call excerpts.  The first quotation, from Lip-Bu Tan, CEO of Intel Corp., sets the tone for what follows: "We see token usage exploding.  Agent now consumes 1,000x more tokens than single-event reasoning."

Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet, Inc., is next: "[W]e are experiencing strong demand for our AI solutions from enterprises and consumers, at levels that are meaningfully exceeding our available supply."

He is followed by the CEO of Microsoft Corp., Satya Nadella: "[W]e are supply-constrained...  The thing that we do not want to do is to disappoint especially our enterprise consumers on Azure."

Then comes Jeffrey Clarke, COO of Dell Technologies: "Demand continues to exceed supply with memory as the primary constraint, and we expect to exit the year with meaningful backlog."

And not to forget Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia Corp.: "[W]e don't have enough supply.  The reason for that is because the world supply chain is supply-constrained.  We have the support of our ecosystem to have very robust growth, and well in support of whatever guidance we've provided."

Finally appears the CEO of Cerebras Systems, Inc., Andrew Feldman: "What is unusual about AI right now is the builders are so far behind the demand, it's absurd.  We have a backlog of more than $2 billion of demand...  [N]one of us, not us, not AMD, not Nvidia, can keep up with the demand that your employees are driving.  And that's sort of, in a lot of ways, the opposite of a bubble.  We are chasing, right?  Our customers and their customers are moving at the speed of software, and we're moving at the speed of real estate, data centers, right?  Um, and so we are behind."

~ Grant's Interest Rate Observer, "Hanging by a stock price," June 19, 2026

Pichai and Huang 

Jun 16, 2026

Evan Lorenz on DeepSeek's latest model, V4

Evan Lorenz: In January 2025, DeepSeek released its R1 model, which offered comparable performance to the best Western chatbots at a fraction of the price.  As Western investors digested the news of cut-rate, Chinese competition, the Nasdaq sold off.

Grant's: Mr. Market is turning a blind eye so far to the recent unveiling of DeepSeek's latest model, V4.  Like R1, V4 slightly underperforms the leading Western competition but sells at a fraction of the Western cost.  Bloomberg explains how: "DeepSeek's trillion-parameter system uses the Mixture-of-Experts technique, selectively triggering only a small subset of experts and activating only up to 37 billion parameters per task to keep inference costs far lower than for similar frontier models."

DeepSeek has put its model up for sale at 75% off until the end of the month, but once that discount ends, V4 will cost between just one-tenth to one-quarter of the leading American equivalents.

Lorenz: Price competition is what just might deflate the high-cost and capital-intensive AI boom.

~ Evan Lorenz, "The way the boom ends," Grant's Interest Rate Observer, May 8, 2026

🚀 🚨 Stop Everything — DeepSeek V4 Might Be the Smartest Coding AI of 2026  | by Greek Ai | GoPenAI 

OpenAI's CFO: "We are facing a vertical wall of demand"

Right now we are facing a vertical wall of demand.  If there are areas where we are not achieving certain goals, I would say it is often the lack of computational capacity that is slowing us down to some extent. 

~ Sarah Friar, OpenAI chief financial officer, Bloomberg interview, "OpenAI: We see a vertical wall of demand for our products," 24 ORE, May 1, 2026

Sarah Friar Bloomberg 

Jun 15, 2026

Karen Kwiatkowski on the Iran war: a tale of two empires

Our military footprint in the Gulf and the region has contracted; this will continue.  What we just watched over the past 100 days was an unusually vivid moment in the long slow collapse of the US military and financial empire. 

Conversely, tiny Israel saw its fluid borders expand in all four directions.  The cover of this war coincided with new bases in Somaliland, new gas fields through occupation of southern Lebanon and Gaza, massive Israeli expansion through land and political purchase in Greece, Cyprus, and Albania, and the exponential erasure of Gazans, Palestinians, Lebanese and Syrians. 

[...]

A truly defensive military and intelligence apparatus, at a fifth or even a tenth of what we spend today, as well as a structural jettisoning of special alliances that animate the current defense budget and focus, including but not limited to Israel, are now within reach for the US, in part because of what happened over the past 100 days.  The empire will oppose any changes in this direction, but our dry shell of an empire has few choices. 

In a strange way Trump will bring the troops home, and end US wars of choice, and like the captain of the Titanic, he will ride the ship, damaged by arrogance and overreach, into the deep. 

But before the empire fades, it retrenches, and global war-mongering becomes totalitarianism at home, national intelligence becomes domestic surveillance, AI looks inward to identify potential enemies of the state, and maps their communities for decimation or economic lockdown.

[...]

Today, we are in the midst of the collapse of two empires, one tiny and vicious, the other lumbering and lazy.  These two empires suffer different illusions, but Israel, under fascist Zionism, has dibs on discipline and seeks to rule.

[...]

US imperial retrenchment has been happening under our very noses, slowly at first with our devalued currency and never-ending wars, but the pace is quickening.  Notably in this 250th year after the Declaration of Independence, every American needs to be prepared for war at home.

~ Karen Kwiatkowski, "The US Empire is Retrenching, Bringing Imperialism Home," LewRockwell.com, June 15, 2026

Trump/Netanyahu: Israel, America and ...