Kevin Duffy on the Austrian case for free trade

The Austrian (praxeological) method involves deductive reasoning, thought experiments, methodological individualism.  The only way to refute a logical argument is with better logic.  In trade, party A trades with B. Both do so because they benefit.  More accurately, because they expect to benefit.  Both expect to get more through the trade than they give up.  This doesn't mean in a week or a year neither will have regrets, but they do so because they expect to benefit. 

Now party C comes along and wants to interfere.  There are several problems: 

1. Knowledge - Does party C know something that A and B do not? 

2. Objectivity and altruism - Is party C above self-interest? 

3. Motive - By interfering, is party C benefiting at the expense of A and B?

4. Morality - What right does party C have to interfere?

Compounding this problem is that the state (a territorial monopolist on the use of force) acts as agent for party C.  It uses violence to interfere.  The state itself is not above self-interest; it has its own motives.  It benefits by being a broker in political favors.  Finally, there is the cost of maintaining the state, which is paid through violence (taxation). 

It's crystal clear who benefits from free trade (the people) and who benefits from attacking it (the state and special interests seeking protection and privileges).  This is where the intellectuals come in: They are needed in order to blind people to being fleeced.

~ Kevin Duffy

 

Kevin Duffy on U.S. aggressions against Iran

The world doesn't trust Iran because it has memory-holed past U.S. aggressions: 

1953 - CIA-led coup overthrows democratically elected prime minister of Iran, Mohammad Mosaddegh; installs U.S.-friendly Shah, authoritarian monarch. 

1957 - SAVAK (secret police) is established with CIA and Israeli (Mossad) assistance; this becomes the Shah’s primary tool of repression. 

1979 - U.S. first imposes sanctions after the Shah is overthrown; these undergo a major expansion in 1995 under Clinton. 

1980-1988 - U.S. backs Saddam Hussein in Iran-Iraq War, costing hundreds of thousands of Iranian lives 

1988 - USS Vincennes “mistakenly” shoots down civilian Iran Air Flight 655 on July 3 over the Strait of Hormuz. All 290 aboard are killed, including 254 Iranians and 66 children. The US calls it a tragic error in a combat zone; Iran views it as deliberate. 

2025-2026 - US and Israeli strikes on Iran (starting late February 2025/early 2026) cause thousands of Iranian deaths, including a missile strike that hit the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school in southern Iran, costing 156 lives, 120 of them schoolchildren.

~ Kevin Duffy, tweet, April 28, 2026

 

Kevin Duffy and Jeremy Hammond on participatory democracy, i.e. voting

Duffy: A key pillar of the statist belief system is participatory democracy.  Everyone gets a say (or vote), no matter how ignorant they are of the inner workings of the system.  This way critics like us are more easily dismissed.  Normally, 10,000 hours of study would qualify us as "experts," but not in this case.  There are no valued experts on the system itself.  It's simply assumed to be the greatest system of societal organization ever conceived by mankind.  To suggest otherwise is to be dismissed as a heretic. 

Hammond: Ah, yes, a huge part of the problem is the compulsion to vote—or as I prefer to describe it, to act to legitimize the criminal organization in Washington. I don't want to bicker over which head of the beast should devour us; I want to slay the beast.

~ Kevin Duffy and Jeremy Hammond, email exchange, April 29, 2026

 

Kevin Duffy on the American exceptionalism bubble

The U.S. is leading the world towards chaos, divisiveness and aggression while China is the leading it towards stability, openness and restraint. 

This is obvious to most of the world yet 95% of Americans remain deluded by the fog of "U.S. exceptionalism."

~ Kevin Duffy, X post, March 16, 2026

 

Kevin Duffy on pursuit of the truth

Once you realize pursuit of the truth - dedication to reality at all costs - is the key to investing and life, you realize there is no other choice.  Being uncomfortable then becomes your comfort zone.  Since others prefer comforting lies, this becomes a massive, durable edge in both games (life and investing).

~ Kevin Duffy

 

Kevin Duffy on how to organize society

There are only two ways to organize society: coercively or voluntarily.  In order to sell coercion, its promoters must slander voluntarism as exploitative and evil, in the process justifying their theft and thuggery as necessary and righteous.

~ Kevin Duffy, X post, January 28, 2026

 

Kevin Duffy on Trump's ambitions to annex Greenland

Here's a novel idea: stop making enemies. Stop expanding NATO on Russia's doorstep. Stop vilifying China for being economically successful. Stop bullying everyone with tariffs. Stop economic sanctions and embargoes on countries you don't like, e.g. Iran, Cuba, Venezuela. Stop aiding and abetting the genocide in Gaza.  

Why not try this approach? I guarantee, the world would be a more prosperous, peaceful place. The big loser in such a world, of course, would be the military industrial complex, whose budget would be easily cut to under $500B (which is precisely why they are fighting so desperately to prevent such a cataclysm).

No, instead we're going to double down on our current path. These people are now pining for a $1.5T annual military budget!! Meanwhile, total debt clocks in at $39T and counting, our growing list of enemies is selling US treasuries, and the dollar is imploding vs. gold (having lost 75% of its value since Trump first stepped into office in January, 2017).

As WWI critic Randolph Bourne famously said, "War is the health of the state." But ultimately, the war machine brings about a destruction of the currency and bankruptcy of the state. We are now accelerating towards that day.

~ Kevin Duffy, Twitter/X post, January 21, 2026

 

Kevin Duffy on regime change in Venezuela

Randolph Bourne, a critic of the U.S.'s disastrous entry into WWI, famously said, "War is the health of the state." The state needs external enemies to survive, but also thrives on internal conflict. 

The military industrial complex has fabricated three main enemies: Russia, China, and Islam, i.e. anyone who opposes Israel's aggressions in the Middle East (the Orwellian-named "war on terror"). The proxy war with Russia in the Ukraine is exhausted, with support of the right lost. The trade war with China is lost, i.e. China stood up to the bully and Trump was forced to TACO out. Israel's non-stop annihilation of Gaza has turned it into a pariah country. The U.S.-Israel alliance has lost the moral high ground and alienated the left. 

Time to come up with a new external enemy. Welcome, Venezuela and its evil dictator, Maduro. (The "good vs. evil" narrative that drives American foreign policy propaganda always requires a bad guy.) Clearly, this has nothing to do with drugs. The solution is simple: end the war on drugs. Prohibition forced alcohol consumers to buy from criminals. Ending the drug war would put the drug cartels out of business overnight.

This is all about finding a new enemy to distract Americans from their growing economic malaise: public debt approaching $39 trillion, interest payments on that debt over $1 trillion and exceeding the entire military budget, the middle class getting squeezed by spiraling costs, and gold going through the roof as foreigners are less willing to hold our dollars and our debt (Biden's sanctions against Russia in 2022 being a major catalyst in "weaponizing the dollar").

To really understand the nature of American foreign policy, I suggest reading Stephen Kinzer's Overthrow: America's Century of Regime Change from Hawaii to Iraq.

To understand our policy in the Middle East since 1953 Iranian coup, I suggest watching this epic 3-hour Tucker Carlson interview of Scott Horton.  (See here.)

To understand the Israel-Palestine conflict, I suggest my deep dive on its history.  (See here.)

Lastly, Venezuela's decline didn't start when socialist Hugo Chavez took over in 1999. It began when a social democrat named Rómulo Betancourt was popularly elected in 1958.  (See here.)

~ Kevin Duffy, January 7, 2026

 

Kevin Duffy on narratives that drive the state

The state thrives on 2 false narratives:

1. It must protect group A from being exploited by group B.

2. It must solve some crisis (or future crisis) that the free market is incapable of solving due to apathy, greed, lack of resources or lack of vision.

~ Kevin Duffy, Twitter/X post, November 10, 2025 

 

Kevin Duffy on the U.S. vs. China

From an economic standpoint, the U.S. and China are moving in opposite directions. 

The reality is that a) there are a lot of smart, hard working, resilient, entrepreneurial people in China, b) markets have gotten much freer since Deng's reforms in 1978, c) significant capital accumulation has taken place and d) there has been tremendous investment in human capital. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. has been doing all the wrong things (it's a long list) and moving towards markets that are less free. The consequences of these trends are becoming increasingly obvious, yet instead of coming to grips with reality and working towards getting our own house in order, we Americans prefer to deny reality and blame the successful for our own failures.

Not diagnosing and fixing the problem is bad enough, but this is far worse: we risk destroying two positive countervailing forces that have helped alleviate our self-inflicted wounds. The first is turning our backs on China's productivity miracle, which has been a boon to the American consumer. The second is alienating Chinese STEM students, who bring their talents to Silicon Valley and increasingly run our most successful tech companies.

~ Kevin Duffy, Twitter/X post, October 20, 2025

 

Dan Ferris and Corey McLaughlin: Is Duffy the only bull on China?

Ferris: He [Kevin Duffy], if I'm not mistaken, is the only person who says China is an opportunity...  Everybody else says it's uninvestable, one guy like Kevin says buy.

 McLaughlin: It's funny because a month or two ago when we interviewed Brett Eversole... and we were talking about cheap, hated and in an uptrend, after that episode I got a message from Kevin on Twitter... "Hey, what about China?"

~ Dan Ferris and Corey McLaughlin, "China Isn't the Enemy - It's an Investing Opportunity," Stansberry Investor Hour, October 6, 2025

 

Kevin Duffy on history

Looking at history, it's like this movie that's unfolding.  If we understand history, we get a sense for how this movie, not how it ends, but where it's going.  We don't necessarily know all of the plot twists along the way; those may be a little more difficult to figure out.

~ Kevin Duffy, "China Isn't the Enemy - It's an Investing Opportunity," Stansberry Investor Hour, October 6, 2025

 

Kevin Duffy on wars in the Middle East

Wars are the embodiment of collective delusions.  The same laws that govern bubbles apply: the madness of crowds, intolerance for dissent, promotion of false and simple narratives and a rush of euphoria that brings about an orgy of poor decisions.  The good news is that all bubbles eventually burst, reversing a long, ruinous trend and exposing the false belief that supports them.  

In the Middle East there are multiple delusions taking place.  The first is that Israel has a history of acting in self-defense.  The second is that the U.S. has long been a “global force for good.”  The third is that Donald Trump is opposed to “forever wars” and a threat to the military industrial complex.

~ Kevin Duffy, "The End of the Innocence: American Foreign Policy in the Middle East," The Coffee Can Portfolio, August 27, 2025

 

Kevin Duffy on modern warfare

Warfare today is all about pinning the “aggressor” label on the opposing side and claiming victim status.  This allows the self-proclaimed victim to act with impunity – civilians be damned – all in the name of “self-defense.”  Thus modern warfare is filled with an endless litany of false flag operations, baiting the other side into firing the first shot, preemptive strikes and sensationalized propaganda (usually involving “killing babies”) all meant to gain the moral high ground and justify cutting the dogs of war loose.

~ Kevin Duffy, "Gaza: What Would Rothbard Think?," The Libertarian Alliance, June 8, 2025

Kevin Duffy on Walter Williams

As a younger man, I had the privilege of hearing the late free market economist, Walter Williams, speak.  “People are worried about saving jobs, but as an economist, I get excited when jobs are destroyed,” he told the audience.  “Should we bemoan the invention of the dishwashing machine because it puts dish washers out of work?  There are an infinite number of jobs. Just come to my house this weekend and I’ll prove it to you.”

~ Kevin Duffy, "Mercantilism in America," The Coffee Can Portfolio, May 6, 2025

Kevin Duffy on the benefit to American consumers from trade with China

American consumers were standout winners in the pre-Trump 2.0 U.S.-China trade relationship.  Last year, the U.S. got 78% of its imported smartphones from China, 65% of its TVs and 76% of its toys.  As the chart below shows, these categories experienced massive deflation since 2000 at the same time the Consumer Price Index rose 81%. (Unfortunately, we can’t yet import pre-fab homes from China!)  More money in consumers’ pockets translates to more consumption, more investment and more jobs.

~ Kevin Duffy, "Mercantilism in America," The Coffee Can Portfolio, May 6, 2025

Kevin Duffy on national defense

The best, most efficient defense is a strong economy (i.e., must be free and open) and commercial ties (interconnectedness, your neighbors have too much to lose by going to war with you).  Neutrality is also important to avoid entangling alliances.  High gun ownership levels provide a second line of defense.  This is basic Founding Fathers stuff. 

The U.S. also has the enviable position of friendly neighbors to the north and south and oceans to the east and west.  This is probably the most defendable place on earth.  There is no way the U.S. needs to spend 3.5% of GDP on its military, i.e. 40% of the world total with 4% of the world's population. 

The military industrial complex is a problem.  They are not exactly an impartial assessor of global threats.  They're a protection racket that constantly needs to justify their own existence.  Like all government entities, they want to grow.  They can't be trusted and they're constantly creating external enemies and making us less secure.

~ Kevin Duffy, April 20, 2025

Kevin Duffy on export subsidies

Exports subsidies are wealth transfers from the exporting country's taxpayers to the importing country's consumers.  The importing countries should welcome and encourage them. Instead of complaining, send thank you notes.

~ Kevin Duffy, Twitter/X post, April 21, 2025

Kevin Duffy on the trade war with China

Trade is win-win. This is Econ 101. If you understand that, you don't mess with trade. 

I don't understand all the anti-China sentiment in this country. What did they ever do besides ship us inexpensive goods in return for our government bonds which will end up worthless? They raised our standard of living and financed our deficits. We should be sending them thank you notes. The attack on China started a long time ago in the '90s. In fact, in 1996 a younger Nancy Pelosi warned about rising trade deficits with the Chinese. She sounded like Donald Trump. Feel free to fact check me on this.

The Chinese are smart and resilient. When they were targeted by Trump's first trade war in 2018, they adapted and de-risked from the US economy. That's why they're one of the few countries that is standing up to the bully. Bravo. I applaud them.

When Biden took office, many expected him to back away from Trump's trade war and anti-China rhetoric. Instead, he amped them both up.

Btw, US multinationals (Starbucks, Apple, Tesla, Shake Shack, etc.) do about $500 billion a year of business in China. That doesn't show up in the trade deficit. China's BYD is the biggest producer of EVs in the world, but it's locked out of the US market by 100% tariffs imposed by the Biden administration. But you don't hear that because it doesn't fit the narrative.

As a result of Trump's first trade war, trade with China has declined. So has the trade deficit. In fact, it's the lowest it's been since 2010. Doesn't fit the narrative.

This trade war risks blowing up the global economy and taking our 401Ks with it. Who is to blame? Both parties, but honestly, we're all to blame.

~ Kevin Duffy, Facebook post, April 10, 2025

Kevin Duffy on trade deficit accounting

There is no "trade deficit" any more than your family runs a chronic trade deficit with the local grocery store.  Trade is mutually beneficial.  You value the food more than the money, the grocery store values your money more than the food it gives up. 

Outside of barter, there are all kinds of money exchanges in an economy.  Employees run a money surplus with their employers.  Businesses run money deficits with their suppliers and employees.  There are also exchanges that have nothing to do with goods and services, such as a depositor putting money in the bank (depositor runs a deficit, bank runs a surplus) or the government borrowing money (government runs a surplus, lender runs a deficit). 

So anytime someone claims Americans are getting ripped off by foreigners, consider perhaps the most successful company in the history of capitalism, Apple.  Apple does A LOT of business in China (16% of total revenue).  They run deficits with Chinese suppliers and surpluses with Chinese consumers.  Everyone is happy. 

But then Apple does something unforgivable: it imports iPhones to the U.S. for sale to its customers!  Again, everyone is happy.  In fact, because everyone Apple touches through money exchanges is happy - suppliers, employees, customers - the company is wildly profitable.  And that makes investors happy.  How happy?  Until Trump's trade war, Apple was valued at $3.6 trillion, the most of any company in the world.  Today, that's down to $2.8 trillion.  This makes total sense that shareholders have seen $800 billion of their wealth evaporate in 2 months: Apple is in the crosshairs of a trade war which mainly targets China.

A "trade deficit" is an accounting fiction, a contradiction in terms.  When Apple imports an iPhone and sells it in the U.S., it's counted by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, but when Apple sells an iPhone in China, it's not.  Using worthless trade statistics as an excuse to diminish trade is dangerous folly.

~ Kevin Duffy, Facebook post, April 6, 2025