Sep 28, 2014

Todd Salamone: Sentiment suggests only modest pullbacks

The sentiment backdrop continues to suggest that if pullbacks occur, they will be modest.

~ Todd Salamone, "Monday Morning Outlook," September 20, 2014

Sep 23, 2014

Horace Walpole on the comedy and tragedy of life

… this world is a comedy to those who think, a tragedy to those who feel.

~ Horace Walpole (1717-1797)

Sep 17, 2014

Jim Cramer on Janet Yellen: "The Fed wants the common person to make money."

As I listened, I heard a woman who was simply saying, look, the Great Recession is still with us psychologically. We aren't back to normal, because the downturn so scarred people that they aren't behaving as we would hope.  It's clear to me she's worried that the psyche of the country is too fragile...  The trick with the Yellen regime, like the trick with the Ben Bernanke regime before her is to remember that they speak for the common person.  The Fed wants the common person to make money.

~ Jim Cramer, CNBC, September 17, 2014

(Cramer commented on Yellen's press conference remarks after the FOMC meeting.)

Sep 13, 2014

Barron's reporter on risk of the Fed tightening too quickly

IN THE 1970S, high inflation wasn't just imagined -- it was very real. Today, however, those clamoring for rate hikes seek to head off potential threats -- of higher inflation, asset bubbles, and the like -- and ensure that U.S. growth continues to accelerate. In fact, inflation expectations in the U.S. have been falling recently, not rising. The risk becomes that the U.S. ends up repeating the '70s in reverse. Remember, in that decade, rates weren't hiked enough, causing inflation to reignite quickly, which never solved anything. Today, tighter policy could mean the economy never reaches escape velocity, instead remaining mired at 2% growth. And that's a mistake we don't want to make.

~ Ben Levisohn, "The '70s in Reverse," Barron's, September 15, 2014

Charles Munger on knowing the limits of your knowledge and competence

People chronically misappraise the limits of their own knowledge; that’s one of the most basic parts of human nature. Knowing the edge of your circle of competence is one of the most difficult things for a human being to do. Knowing what you don’t know is much more useful in life and business than being brilliant.

~ Charles Munger, "Charles Munger: Secret's of Buffett's Success?," The Wall Street Journal, September 12, 2014

Sep 6, 2014

Nassim Taleb on the role of ambition in success (and failure)

Ambition accounts for 50% of success. And 100% of (big) failures.

~ Nassim Taleb, posted on Facebook, August 17, 2014

Sep 4, 2014

JPMorgan strategist David Lebovitz dismisses bullish investor sentiment as a concern

Q: What about sentiment?  The I.I. Report [Investors Intelligence], which people monitor, shows that bearishness is now at a 27 year low...  Are people getting too optimistic, too exuberant over this rally?

A: I think people are getting complacent, but we've seen a strong of no bad news for the most part.  People are comfortable with the Ukraine.  They're comfortable with what's going on the Middle East.  So I expect that there will be something which catches us all by surprise at some point, but generally speaking things are pretty good.

~ David Lebovitz, global market strategist, JPMorgan Asset Management, as appeared on CNBC, September 4, 2014

(Lebovitz has been in the investment business all of 6 years, landing his first job in July, 2008.)