Kevin Duffy on prediction

The future is probabilistic, not certain.  The past is certain, but must be viewed probabilistically to have any predictive value.

~ Kevin Duffy, tweet, February 8, 2022

Tom Bernhardt on uncertainty and success

People naturally hate uncertainty, but the ability to deal with it is critical to success.  And it’s not just about business; it’s a pervasive attitude and discipline. 

The ability to say “I don’t know” or “it’s probably this, but might be that” is a vital component of critical thinking.  It’s also a prerequisite to having a constructive discussion with others, especially those having a different view. 

When people fall into a cognitive gravity well of certain belief, the intractability makes them unable to listen and evaluate contrary information and perspectives.  They become less than useless.  Unfortunately that’s where most people increasingly are these days.

~ Tom Bernhardt, September 29, 2021

Robert Greene on uncertainty

The need for certainty is the greatest disease the mind faces.

~ Robert Greene, Mastery

(Dan Ferris' quote of the week on the Stansberry Investor Hour, 11:45 mark, August 19, 2021)

Matthew McLennan on owning gold

We own gold as a hedge against the unknowable. It's almost a recognition of one's own humility in the face of that uncertainty.

~ Matthew McLennan, portfolio manager, First Eagle Investment Management, "A Time for Worry - and For Yogurt," Barron's, April 17, 2021

Jeffrey Tucker on the discovery process

But what kind of society do we need in order to maximize the potential of this form of spontaneous development of individuals and societies? A society hobbled by preset agendas emanating from fixed regulations and laws presume the opposite of a trial-and-error society. They indulge the illusion of knowledge, the myth of certainty, the fantasy that a static order with known solutions can be forced on everyone.

~ Jeffrey Tucker, "Shakira’s Musical Disquisition on Uncertainty, Creativity, and Entrepreneurship," American Institute For Economic Research, February 4, 2020

Charles Mackay on the three causes of discontent of mankind

Three causes especially have excited the discontent of mankind; and, by impelling us to seek remedies for the irremediable, have bewildered us in a maze of madness and error. These are death, toil, and the ignorance of the future.

~ Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, "Understanding the Forces Behind Group Mentality, Thoughts and Actions,” p. 104