Marko Papic on how Canadians are reacting to Trump's trade war

I want you to pay attention to this giant Canadian flag behind me on the BC legislative building in Victoria, British Columbia, the capitol of the province.  It's indicative of the kind of nationalism that's sprung up, not just in Canada, but in other places as well in the world as a reaction to the realization that the Trump administration is no longer representing this magnanimous American one can rely on.  Rather, most of these countries have to do some painful structural reforms.

What that means for Canada in particular is the upcoming legislative bill called The One Canadian Economy Bill, which, for the first time in Canadian history, is going to bring down trade barriers between provinces and spur more... left-right trade rather than north-south, which Canada has been doing for most of its existence, effectively depending on American demand. 

~ Marko Papic, Twitter/X post, July 25, 2025

 

Marko Papic on NATO and Germany defense

Ultimately, the architects of NATO – almost exclusively American – were not stupid.  They created a geopolitical architecture that – in the words of NATO’s first General Secretary Lord Ismay – was meant to “keep Americans in, Russians out, and Germans down.”  This has been an extraordinarily beneficial arrangement for the US, giving Washington an important geographical anchor on the Eurasian continent while forcing Europe to be largely subservient to US national interests.  Europe was effectively left in a permanent state of geopolitical adolescence.  The war in Ukraine ultimately illustrates that reality.  By waking up Germans to this reality, President Trump has ensured that Berlin – and Europe by extension – is no longer satisfied with staying down.

~ Marko Papic, "Europe’s Crisopportunity: Trump, Putin, And The Geopolitical Gambit," BCA Research, March 2025

Marko Papic investing in 2025: bet against the Davos consensus

Davos is great and you learn a lot, but it is a little bit like living in The Economist cover.  It is what it is.  It's in the price, it's consensus.  And I think that this year there might be three things that happen that will actually go against that consensus.  

First, referring to my point about Donald Trump, we may not want to go swing fully against globalization as a new paradigm.  President Trump has a nuanced position on trade and he will use those tariffs to negotiate new deals...  Maybe we've overstated how much trade wars are going to matter in '25.  

The second thing is that I think people are overstating is just how woefully inadequate Europe is as an investment opportunity.  There are things happening here that very few people brought up at Davos.  One is that there's an important German election coming up.  Second is that there is an energy revolution, both in alternatives but also in terms of LNG supply that will help Europe solve its energy problems.

And so what I would say is that 2025 may actually be a year where the dollar peaks and when some of these consensus trades, which is to be in Magnificent 7, in the U.S., particularly tech, actually... move against that consensus.

~ Marko Papic, "Thoughts From the Apex of Globalization," 1:40 mark, January 26, 2025

Marko Papic on price inflation and supply problems

Why do we have inflation?  "Oh, it's Biden's stimulus."  Well, no.  False.  False.  First of all, it's Biden-Trump's stimulus.  Second of all, forget stimulus.  Forget that, that's easy.  You raise rates, done.  Demand gone.  The problem is, we have this plethora of idiosyncratic supply problems that seem idiosyncratic; they seem separate from each other.  But actually there are a cacophony of evidence that's telling you that we have completely dismantled the well-functioning, well-oiled machine.  Supply chain, just-in-time, all this stuff.  And why did we do it?  We decided that global warming was going to kill us tomorrow.  Not in 10 or 100 years.  No, no, tomorrow.  So we need to deal with it right now.  And the problem with that is what we've done is we've starved fossil fuel industry of capital.  We've turned off the capex tap at the same time that we didn't turn off the demand tap.  Like we're not all driving Teslas.  Sorry.  Some of us drive F150s.  So the problem with that is that we have an energy crisis, which is of our own making.  We have a supply chain crisis because five years ago we all thought China was cool; now we all think China is going to kill us.  So now we have to also fight a war with China tomorrow, we have to solve climate change tomorrow, and then finally, of course, Covid... disruptions also created supply chain problems.

~ Marko Papic, interview with Dan Ferris, Stansberry Investor Hour, 37:50 mark, October 31, 2022

Marko Papic is bullish on commodities and emerging markets

Commodity producers are cheap, their currencies are cheap, their balance of payments are in surplus...  Last year, do you know what they were doing?  They were jacking up rates!  (other than Turkey)  They were jacking up rates, doing exactly what we taught them to do through IMF and World Bank programs while America was basically printing like the most populist regimes in the world.  So emerging markets took the pain last year, they took the hit of tight monetary policy, they're cheap, their current accounts are in surplus and commodities have risen massively.  Karl Marx could rise from the grave and run Brazil and I'd still buy it!

~ Marko Papic, "Geopolitical Expert Marko Papic on Ukraine, Commodities, and Ignoring the Media Noise," Stansberry Investor Hour, 28:00 mark, January 27, 2022

Marko Papic on the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Let's just be aware that Russians have their propaganda, we have our own.  And I think that's very important because if you're an investor trying to make asset allocation decisions, just be sure you understand that our own media can often obfuscate issues or make them seem more alarmist.  And I think that's a little bit of what's going on with the Russia situation...  Keep in mind, Russia has its RT, we have our own media organizations as well.

~ Marko Papic, "Geopolitical Expert Marko Papic on Ukraine, Commodities, and Ignoring the Media Noise," Stansberry Investor Hour, 45:40 mark, January 27, 2022

Marko Papic on hegemony

I'm not trying to tell you that American hegemony is a good thing.  I'm telling you that any hegemony is a good thing for us as investors.  American, Chinese, alien overlord takes over earth as long as they let us invest, baby, that's good for us.  That's my point: it resolves information problems.

~ Marko Papic, "Geopolitical risk in the equity markets," YouTube, 22:00 mark, January 8, 2015

Marko Papic on investing and political bias

One of the biggest sources of alpha in the market is when people invest based on their political bias.

~ Marko Papic, Stansberry Investor Hour interview, 23:30 mark, September 2, 2021