Mar 16, 2025

Ray Dalio on the U.S. debt problem

Ray Dalio: I think the first thing is the debt issue.  We have a very severe supply-demand problem so that they have to sell a quantity of debt that the world is not going to want to buy.  And that's a set of circumstances that is imminent.  That's of paramount importance.  The deficit must go from what will be projected now to be about 7.2% of GDP to 3% of GDP, otherwise there will be a supply-demand problem.  That's a big deal.  You are going to see shocking developments in terms of how that's going to be dealt with, things that may not have happened in our lifetimes, but things that have happened throughout history...

Sara Eisen: What do you mean, austerity?

Ray Dalio: There may be restructurings of debt.  There may be exerting pressures on countries who own the debt, to buy the debt, political pressures on countries.  There may be cutting the payments to some creditor countries for political reasons and so on.  So there may be monetizations of debt.  If you look at history and see the repeating of "What do countries do when they're in this situation?"  There are lessons from history that repeat.  It's correct

~ Ray Dalio, "Ray Dalio and Salesforce’s Benioff on AI, trade wars and new world order," CNBC International Live, 12:00 mark, March 14, 2025



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