U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew: "We're leading the developed world in the quality of our recovery" (2013)

The United States is recovering from worst recession since the Great Depression, and we’re leading the developed world in the quality of our recovery.

~ U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, November 12, 2013, "Treasury’s Jack Lew says the U.S. economy is thriving," MarketWatch.com, November 13, 2013

Bernanke on the effect of budget cuts on the US recovery

I only ask ... as Congress looks at the timing and composition of its changes to the budget, that it does take into account that in the very near term the recovery is still rather fragile, and that sharp and excessive cuts in the very short term would be potentially damaging to that recovery.

~Ben S. Bernanke, chairman, Federal Reserve, Congressional testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, July 14, 2011

Ben Bernanke on the possibility of QE3 in 2011

We are uncertain about the near-term developments in the economy. We’d like to see if, in fact, the economy does pick up, as we are projecting.

~Ben S. Bernanke, chairman, Federal Reserve, Congressional testimony, July 14, 2011

Mark Zandi sees an improving economy in 2H 2011

Some of the headwinds that caused us to slow are turning into tail winds.

~ Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, "Why economists see a stronger second half in 2011," Associated Press, June 27, 2011

Ben Stein says monetary stimulus is generating a recovery, housing is next

I wouldn't say [the recovery] has come from federal stimulus, I would say it's come from incredibly accomodative monetary policy. The next natural driver will be the consumer recovering and the consumer feeling more confident, it's already happening in autos. If someone had predicted, a year and a half ago, that the auto-business would be whirring, no one would've believed him. But, because of very accomodative credit terms at the car dealerships, the car dealership business, the car selling and making business, is booming!

I think the next stage is, if somehow the Federal Reserve can convince the banks to be accomodative about lending for housing, housing will recover. I mean, there's no reason that the banks can not get back into housing. They don't have to be as wild and crazy as they were in the late '90s and early 2000s, but they should get back into lending. And when they do, then that will recover, too, and that will be another leg of the recovery.

~Ben Stein, actor, author and economist, WSJ's Markets Hub, April 19, 2011

Gene Epstein winds up to place foot firmly in mouth on 4Q 2010 GDP call?

The fourth-quarter 2010 GDP report, released Friday, should convince all but the most diehard double-dippers that that the expansion of 2011 is firmly aloft.

Growth in the fourth quarter at an annual rate of 3.2% not only meant that real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product finally exceeded its prerecession peak of Q4 '07, thus signaling the recovery's end.

As mentioned, however, business is slow to hire during a recovery from a recession, which itself boosts output per worker. As confidence builds with the onset of expansion, workers are hired at a faster rate, while productivity growth tends to slow. Look for that to start happening in 2011.

~Gene Epstein, "Economic Beat" writer, Barron's magazine,  "GDP: Favorable Auguries", Barron's, January 29, 2011

BlackRock's Bob Doll says confidence begets confidence and the only way is up in 2011

We've been through a period of very low confidence: consumer confidence, CEO confidence. And there's nothing like a slightly better economy, a slightly better stock market to argue that confidence will beget more confidence. CEOs are never more confident than when their stock price is going up.

They will be more willing to do some positive things with the $2 trillion-plus in excess cash sitting on their balance sheets: raise their dividend; buy back their stock; engage in M&A; re-invest in their business; hire a worker or two; or maybe put up a new plant. I think that's what's in front of us.

~Bob Doll, chief equity strategist, BlackRock, "Experts agree: Get over your fear and get back into stocks", USA Today, December 17th, 2010

BlackRock's Bob Doll says economic recovery clears the way for stocks in 2011

If you don't believe in a depression, and I don't, stocks will go up and bonds will go down in the next few years.

~ Bob Doll, chief equity strategist, BlackRock, "Experts agree: Get over your fear and get back into stocks", USA Today, December 17th, 2010

Alan Abelson builds the skeptic's case against economic recovery

That the market is on a roll is undeniable (and who but a cockeyed grizzly would want to deny it). But what's providing the biggest lift is the prevailing investor tendency to respond like gangbusters to even a glimmer of good news and to ignore bad news no matter how telling. Take the response to the latest data on housing.

First came the disclosure that existing home sales were up 7.6% in August—immediately seized upon as evidence that housing was on the mend, supposedly a harbinger of an accelerated recovery and reason enough to take the plunge into equities. But it ain't necessarily so.

As Mark Hanson, of Hanson Advisors, is quick to point out, while last month's sales were better than economists' forecasts (most of whom never saw the housing crash coming), they were down 19% from sales in August '09, and inventory edged up to 11.6 months. That awesome pile of unsold homes all by itself is going to be exceedingly tough to unload.

Moreover, Mark warns that you better be prepared from here on for the full impact of the end of government stimulus, including some pretty irresistible tax breaks, which helped goose demand this year. The absence of such artificial resuscitation is likely to translate into extremely disappointing year-to-year comparisons, including more than a few months of double-digit declines in existing home sales. He also sees the heavy mass of foreclosures and so-called short sales "pushing median and average prices lower, quickly."

As for new home sales in August, they were flat at a pitiable annual rate of 0.288 million units, just a sneeze above May's all-time low of 0.282 million. As a matter of fact, Mark says August sales were the smallest for the month ever. And he notes that foreclosure starts and actual foreclosures were close to 300% of overall new home sales, which stacks up as "a huge obstacle to builder sales" as we head into the slow season for housing.

Again, maybe we're missing something, but a decent recovery without a revival in housing strikes us as a BLT on toast without bacon. It just isn't going to happen. But investors at the moment apparently couldn't care less.

~Alan Abelson, Barron's magazine, "The Bad News Bulls", September 25th, 2010

The Obama Administration on the "Summer of Recovery" of 2010

As the summer heats up, it is becoming clear that it could quite possibly be the most active season yet when it comes to recovering our economy. There are Recovery Act-funded projects breaking ground across the country that are creating quality jobs for Americans and economic growth for businesses, large and small.

This summer is sure to be a Summer of Economic Recovery.

~Ron Sims, Deputy Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, WhiteHouse.gov blog, A Summer of Recovery, June 17, 2010

Larry Summers on sponsoring economic growth from the Whitehouse

We're determined, the President has said it many times, to do what's necessary for growth. The fact that it happened too late, it happened too slowly, but the fact that Congress is at last extending unemployment insurance, looks like it is on the verge of providing new credit and tax incentives for small business, it's starting to move on a broader range of programs to support energy, remembering the needs of state and local governments.

All of this will contribute to supporting and extending the momentum of growth. This is an economy we're watching very closely and we'll do what's necessary.

~ Larry Summers, director, National Economic Council, CNBC's Closing Bell, July 21st, 2010

Joe Saluzzi on the weakness of the financial markets

We are one headline away from S&P 900.

~Joe Saluzzi, co-head of trading, Themis Trading, Bloomberg News, June 24th, 2010

Warren Buffett on the historical resilience of the US economy

The American economy is an amazing engine of growth over time. We may try to mess it up occasionally and we go to excesses and all of that. But if you look at the history of this country, this country works. It's a mistake to bet against it.

~Warren Buffett, Goldman Sachs investor, "The Buffett Express", CNBC's Squawk Box, May 3rd, 2010

Thomas Piketty on insane Greek sovereign debt interest rates

Austerity can be justified, but 8 percent interest rates on a debt that amounts to more than 100 percent of gross domestic product is just crazy. They will have to restore their public finances and then pay back this huge debt at the same time — and Greek debt amounts to so little when you compare it to what was needed to bail out the banks [last year]. Not only is this not going to help growth, it’s going to end very badly, politically speaking. Taxpayers cannot accept this in the long run.

~Thomas Piketty, professor and founder, Paris School of Economics, as quoted in "Deflation Could Stall Efforts to Revive Greece in Debt Crisis", NYT.com, May 2nd, 2010

French economics professor on virtue damning debt-burdened Greece

How can Greece grow out of its debt if there is deflation? Deflation increases the debt burden, so we are following this virtuous circle that is bringing us toward hell. Economics has nothing to do with virtue, which can kill an economy.

~Jean-Paul Fitoussi, professor of economics, Institut d’Études Politiques, Paris, France as quoted in "Deflation Could Stall Efforts To Revive Greece in Debt Crisis", NYT.com, May 2nd, 2010

Newsweek cover story on the economic recovery, part 2 (2010)

The last two expansions have been 120 months and 92 months, respectively. If the U.S. continues to adapt as it has, and if it produces a few more game changers like Google and Apple, there's no reason that the expansion that started in July 2009, against all the odds and predictions, can't last just as long.

~ Daniel Gross, "The Comeback Country: How America pulled itself back from the brink—and why it's destined to stay on top," Newsweek, April 9, 2010

Newsweek cover story on the economic recovery (2010)

The tale of the economy's remarkable turnaround is largely the story of swift reaction, a willingness to write off bad debts and restructure, and an embrace of efficiency—disciplines largely invented in the U.S. and at which it still excels. America still leads the world at processing failure, at latching on to new innovations and building them to scale quickly and profitably. "We are the most adaptive, inventive nation, and have proven quite resilient," says Richard Florida, sociologist and author of The Great Reset: How New Ways of Living and Working Drive Post-Crash Prosperity. If these impulses are embraced more systematically and wholeheartedly, the U.S. can remain an economic superpower well into the current century.
~ Daniel Gross, "The Comeback Country: How America pulled itself back from the brink—and why it's destined to stay on top," Newsweek, April 9, 2010