Louis-Vincent Gave on how China will commoditize the AI business

Take a step back, what's the biggest price anomaly?...  I think a massive price anomaly is the share price of Nvidia and the share price of Facebook [Meta Platforms] and the share price of all these guys that are today incinerating cash on the hope and promise that this cash is going to lead to outsize returns, but it won’t.  It won’t because, unlike the smartphone revolution, unlike previous booms, this time around China is in the AI room.  And what I’ve learned out of 30 years of being in China is that when China enters the room, profits walk out.  And if you’re competing with China, you’ve taken a wrong turn in your life.

~ Louis-Vincent Gave, "China Just Ended 100 Years of American Dominance," RiskReversal Podcast, 42:45 mark, December 15, 2026

Jay Bowen: "AI is the fourth industrial revolution"

Artificial intelligence is the fourth industrial revolution.  It reminds me of the 1990s with the internet.  It’s not exactly the same, but this high-tech productivity boom that is anchored by AI is highlighted by a lot of innovation. 

In the mid-’90s, you had the Four Horsemen: Intel, Dell, Microsoft and Cisco [Systems].  If you didn’t own those stocks, you were done—and we didn’t.  But that bubble ended badly with the tech crash.  It’s not exactly the same now with the Magnificent Seven, though. 

Nvidia is the way we’ve chosen to play this.  We bought Nvidia back in 2019, and we continue to scale it back as it keeps going up.  We’ve taken profits and it’s still our biggest holding.

~ Harold "Jay" Bowen III, "How ‘Endurance Investing’ Produced 50 Years of Market-Beating Returns for This Tampa Pension Plan," Barron's, July 19, 2025

 

Shaun Rein on how America's containment policies of China are backfiring

Containment policies don't work.  Now one of your previous guests, John Mearsheimer, has said he's 100% all-in on trying to contain China.  I think this is one of the most foolish, stupid policies that America could do.  One, as I've shown, Chinese companies have invested so much on innovation themselves, that they're now as good, if not better than the United States.  If America can build it, you can be sure that China eventually can, too.  It's either bigoted or stupid to say that Chinese can't catch up to Americans because China has the money, it has the government support and it has the STEM intellectual brains to try to catch up.  

Two, it hurts American companies like Intel, like Nvidia.  Nvidia has said that now their former client, Huawei, is now one of their biggest competitors.  So this was another mistake from the Mearsheimer school of thought of trying to contain China.  

And then third, more importantly, when you look at the bigger picture, I think a lot of countries in the Global South - I like to call them the Global Majority - they feel that the United States is bullying China and they're worried that they, too, could be bullied.  The United States went from being the liberators in the world, the good guys - they liberated the world from the Nazis, they liberated the world from a form of communism during the Soviet era that was not very productive economically - now they're really almost like triads or mafia, forcing other countries to follow whatever the United States wants.  And I think the Global Majority is angry at what the United States is doing.  I'll give an example: Malaysia has invested billions and billions of dollars because they want to be a base or locus for data centers.  But in his last week as president, Biden slapped export bans on high-end semiconductor chips to Malaysia.  And so Malaysia's plans over the last five years are gone...

So I think you're starting to see a deterioration of America's prestige, power and dominance in the world because people view them as bullying China and bullying other countries like Malaysia.  And that's why I start to see countries starting to move closer to China's orbit.

~ Shaun Rein, "Why China Brushes Off Trump's Tariffs," Thinkers Forum, March 1, 2025

Larry McDonald on the AI capital spending binge

Yesterday, we had an interesting chat where, it was a private conversation with a guy in the Valley [Silicon Valley] that is really good friends with all of the CFOs of the Mag 7.  He's been out to dinner with them hundreds of times, he's been in the Valley for over 30 years and he's run hedge fund money...  And we had another guy who's been trading semiconductors for 20 years professionally and they were having this conversation around artificial intelligence.  And the one thing they both said... it's like the Manhattan Project where if you're a CFO in the Valley and you're not doubling or tripling your capex the last year and a half in artificial intelligence, you're fired.  They're so terrified to be, two years from now, left on the outside.  So what's fascinating is... the capex has gone from like $30 billion a year to $160 billion a year with no visibility...  There's zero visibility on return on capital.  So this is capital expenditures just being deployed at a sick, aggressive, insane pace.  He called it a "Reagan-Gorbachev arms race" where the CFOs have a gun to their head.  They have to invest...  It's created these distortions where Wall Street analysts are falling all over themselves to upgrade Nvidia, but this capex trajectory is just not sustainable.  And the market's starting to figure it out now.

~ Larry McDonald, "Buy What Wall Street Hates," Stansberry Investor Hour, 26:40 mark, July 29, 2024

Burton Malkiel on how the AI revolution is different from the internet bubble of 2000

AI has the promise to make enormous advances in productivity and could be as important as the Industrial Revolution.  And if Nvidia grew its earnings at the rate expected by security analysts in 2024, it would be selling at only 33 times forward earnings.  No wonder its supporters consider it a cheap stock.  Nvidia today doesn't resemble Cisco in January 2000 [which sold at a triple-digit multiple of both trailing earnings and expected results for 2000].

~ Burton G. Malkiel, "Yes, Tech Stocks Really Can Keep Going Up," Barron's, March 9, 2024

Kevin Duffy on Nvidia's $2.2 trillion valuation

As we speak, Nvidia commands a market value of $2.20 trillion, roughly 3.5 times the annual sales of the entire semiconductor industry. 

[...]

As the table below shows, the 40 or so analysts who follow Nvidia expect the company to sustain 65% operating margins this year and next, more than twice the average of the past five years. The bear case rests on capitalism’s knack for hammering down excess profits. If 2025 revenue comes in 15% light with margins closer to 40%, analysts will be forced to cut their earnings estimates in half. Add some valuation compression and Nvidia could easily lose its trillion dollar market cap status. 

As Bob Farrell, a keen observer of investor sentiment, would say, “When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.”

~ Kevin Duffy, "Bubble? What Bubble?," The Coffee Can Portfolio, April 15, 2024

Cathie Wood on supply and demand slowing Nvidia's growth

Q: What other factors could drag on Nvidia’s growth? 

A: China is working hard on developing its own chips, and so are the cloud-service providers such as Google, Amazon.com, and Microsoft.  Tesla is also designing its own chips since they are mission critical for autonomous driving.  Tesla has already pulled some Nvidia chips out of its cars. 

A lot of demand for chips was pulled forward as companies double- or triple-ordered from Nvidia during the chip shortage, trying to get enough supplies.  That cyclical dynamic could play out in the next few months.  Elon Musk recently said that he’s not having trouble getting chips anymore.

~ Cathie Wood, "Cathie Wood Thinks Nvidia Has More to Prove. Her Favorite AI Stocks—and Why She Still Loves Tesla.," Barron's, April 13, 2024

Jim Cramer: "If you bet against NVIDIA, you're taking your life in your hands"

If you judge this one by last year's standard, NVIDIA looks like the easiest short of all time.  The stock's doubled off its lows last October and if you think the bear's coming out of hibernation, this is the one you want to short in May and go away.  But if you bet against NVIDIA, if you short it here, let me give you a little heads up: you're taking your life in your hands.  Don't forget to send me an invite to your funeral...  NVIDIA is now the definition of unstoppable.

~ Jim Cramer, CNBC's Mad Money, 4:25 mark, April 14, 2023

Jensen Huang on the significance of NVIDIA

Q4 was another record quarter, capping a breakout year for NVIDIA’s computing platforms.  Our pioneering work in accelerated computing has led to gaming becoming the world’s most popular entertainment, to supercomputing being democratized for all researchers, and to AI emerging as the most important force in technology.

~ Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA, February 24, 2021

Jim Cramer calls the top on NVIDIA

My dog is named Nvidia and he's about to hit an all-time high!!

~ Jim Cramer, CNBC tweet, June 1, 2018