Showing posts with label dollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dollar. Show all posts

Apr 22, 2025

Bill Strong and Stephen Rahl on comparative advantage, trade deficits and reserve currency status

“The reality... is that the international trade system is designed to cheat us... every country around the world cheats us.” 

~ Peter Navarro, Counselor to the President of the United States 

“Navarro is dumber than a sack of bricks... Navarro is truly a moron.  What he says is demonstrably false.”

~ Elon Musk, Senior Advisor to the President of the United States

David Ricardo was not “dumber than a sack of bricks.”  Rather, the brilliant, early 19th-century British economist developed the theory of comparative advantage, in opposition to the then, widely accepted, mercantilism.  In his “Principles of Political Economy and Taxation” (1817) he proves that countries running trade surpluses are not “cheating” their trade partners and that free trade benefits both parties, regardless of which runs a surplus/deficit. 

Since Ricardo’s era, in the modern globalized trading world the country that has the world reserve currency must, by necessity, sustain a current account deficit.  This is because the extra demand for its “international” money must overvalue its currency.  This ensures that said country sustains more imports than exports, penalizing its net trade balance into long-term deficit.

Hence, the American dollar’s global trade dominance status provides the US with an “exorbitant privilege”—permitting only Americans to enjoy a permanent trade deficit and allowing us to live better than we otherwise would.  The idea that eliminating our current account deficit would “make America wealthy again” is exactly backwards. 

Rhetoric surrounding the radical “Liberation Day” tariff regime ignores Ricardo and harkens back to the good-old-days of tail fins and American manufacturing dominance.  We remember Dad’s made-in-Detroit 1957 Chrysler Windsor, and “good” as those days seemed at the time (real GDP per capita was about one quarter of today’s), they pale in comparison to the 21st century—partly because consumer goods were inferior and much more expensive then.  The idea that Trump’s (now paused) drastic tariff regime would improve Americans’ standard of living is a complete fantasy.

~ Bill Strong and Stephen Rahl, Eschaton Opportunities Fund Quarterly Letter Q1 2025

1957 Chrysler Windsor


Apr 11, 2024

John Hathaway on central banks replacing U.S. dollars with gold

At this point, one can only speculate on the reasons for the behavior of gold bullion.  There are many interrelated forces at work to explain the slump in the U.S. dollar (USD) relative to the gold price.  However, in our opinion, the most obvious is a general loss of trust in the USD as a store of value and U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe asset. 

Widespread evidence includes record purchases of gold by central banks replacing U.S. dollars and other paper currencies for bullion at a record level in 2023 (1,037 tonnes).  For central banks, unlike mainstream investors, the math on the U.S. fiscal situation dictates immediate action.  The $168 billion increase in U.S. government debt over the last 20 days equals the entire U.S. deficit in 2002, as noted by Fred Hickey in the 4/02/2024 High-Tech Strategist.  By year-end, interest on the national debt is likely to be the largest single U.S. government outlay, according to Bank of America chief market strategist Michael Hartnett (FFFT, The Forest for the Trees, 4/06/2024).  Non-U.S. investors have been voting with their feet, as the steady decline in the USD as a share of global foreign exchange reserves illustrates (see Figure 5).

~ John Hathaway, "What Does the Gold Price Breakout Mean?," Sprott Gold Report, April 10, 2024

Jan 24, 2023

Felix Zulauf on weaponizing the US dollar in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine

[T]he Biden administration has made many blunders, but that was the biggest by far, weaponizing the U.S. dollar at the SWIFT payment system because that taught the world that is not as close and friendly to the U.S. as some others, that we should not hold our reserves in the U.S. dollar.  Therefore, the U.S. dollar's role as the major reserve currency is beginning to decline.  I think that China cannot store its reserves in U.S. treasuries any longer.  And I think they know that as well as I do.  And therefore I believe that in the current cycle you will see that there will be a shift, once the U.S. dollar has topped...  Those countries will put their reserves into stuff, into hard assets, that they can store within their own national boundaries.  And nobody can freeze those assets...  I think this was so dumb, so stupid, by the U.S. government, it's unbelievable.  They basically terminated the dollar system.

~ Felix Zulauf, interview with Adam Taggart, Essential Investing, 10:05 mark, December 27, 2022





Dec 11, 2022

Janet Yellen on how fiat currencies are different than cryptocurrencies

Stephen Colbert: Does crypto make sense to you, and on this level?  People like Ron Paul would say, after the United States dollar went off of the gold standard, under Nixon, I believe, that we're now a fiat currency.  Things are worth what they're worth because we said that it's worth something.  "It's backed by the full faith and credit of the United States," whatever that particular phrase, that term or art, may mean.  And so, is crypto, where I create a widget that spits out a coin that I declare a value and then that number of those sets a capitalization for all that crypto out there and then people get invested, so that $20 million now, people say, "oh, that's worth $100 million," and all of that is created out of nothing.  Does that make sense to you, because there is no inherent value to the actual item itself?

Janet Yellen: I've been pretty skeptical at the outset about what the value of crypto would be to the real economy.

Colbert: But because the United States has a fiat currency, is the dollar make any more sense to you than crypto does?

Yellen: Yes, the dollar makes a lot of sense to me.

Colbert: Why?

Yellen: Because it's a natonal currency, it's well-regulated by the Federal Reserve, it has a clear mandate and people who are accountable to the public and to Congress to maintain the goals of the Fed, which is maximum employment and low and stable inflation, price stability.

~ Janet Yellen, appearance on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, 6:20 mark, December 1, 2022



Mar 10, 2022

Jim Rogers on the death of the U.S. dollar

But what is happening now with the U.S. dollar now is the end of the U.S. dollar because an international currency is supposed to be neutral, but in Washington they are now changing the rules.  Now if Washington does not like you, they put sanctions on you and you cannot use U.S. dollars.

~ Jim Rogers

(As quotes by Daniela Cambone in her interview with Jim Rogers, Stansberry Research, 4:00 mark, March 8, 2022.)



Jan 21, 2022

Egon von Greyerz on the dollar's declining value

The majority of Americans never traveled abroad; they don't have a passport either.  They don't see what's happened to their money.  They don't realize that the value of their money is plunging at such a rapid rate.

~ Egon von Greyerz, founder, Matterhorn Asset Management AG, interview with Dan Ferris, Stansberry Investor Hour, 27:00 mark, January 20, 2022



Oct 3, 2021

Janet Yellen on the debt ceiling

I can't think of anything more harmful to the role of the U.S. dollar than failing to raise the debt ceiling.

~ Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Congressional testimony, September 28, 2021



Sep 10, 2020

Kevin Duffy on brand destruction

I don't recall a time of so much self-inflicted brand destruction: NBA, ESPN, mainstream media, Democratic Party, Federal Reserve, U.S. Dollar.

~ Kevin Duffy, tweet, September 10, 2020

3 Examples of Consumer Brand Destruction

Aug 8, 2020

Kevin Duffy on dollar debasement

It took USD 100 years to go from 1/20 oz of gold to 1/2000.  How long will it take to go to 1/200,000?  I'm guessing less than 10.

~ Kevin Duffy, tweet, August 8, 2020

1920 Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle Values and Prices - Past Sales ...

Aug 12, 2011

Warren Buffett on the rating of the dollar vs. US Treasuries

U.S. Treasuries are still triple-A in that there is no question that we will repay the interest and the principal. Every contract will be repaid. So our bonds are triple-A. Our currency, the dollar, is not triple-A. Our bonds are.

~Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, Fortune, "Buffet: The lower stocks go, the more I buy", August 11, 2011

Jul 6, 2011

Jim Grant on the state of the US dollar since 1971

Since 1971, the dollar has been a derivative without an underlying asset.

~Jim Grant, publisher, Grant's Interest Rate Observer, GIRO, May 20, 2011

Jan 17, 2011

Marc Faber says the dollar is no longer a unit of account

If you measure the stock market not in dollars but gold, it is down 80% since 1999. I no longer regard the U.S. dollar as a valid unit of account. People shouldn't value their wealth in dollars because one day, in dollars, everyone will be a billionaire.

~Marc Faber, investor and author, The Gloom Boom Doom Report, Barron's magazine 2011 Barron's Roundtable, January 15, 2011

Jul 21, 2010

John Malone on the monetary race to the bottom

I think we're enjoying right now the fact that it's a race to the bottom with Europe. The concern about the Mediterranean countries, I think perhaps is overdone. But it led to a flow of cash into the U.S. and therefore strengthening the dollar.

And keep in mind you have all these corporations that are cash rich now because they fear for the worst. So they've built up cash hoards. But where do they put the money? They put it in money-market funds. What does the money market invest in? Short-term government securities. That's how we're financing this federal deficit.

~John Malone, chairman, Liberty Media, WSJ, July 21st, 2010

May 14, 2010

Jim Cramer on the success of the IMF-sponsored eurozone bailout

People have to realize the IMF is going to be successful. It's going to save us from the total collapse of all these sovereign bonds. Italy just had a terrific bond auction this morning. Greek and Spanish bonds are trading like they're almost investment-grade. That means the IMF's intervention is working, that's what you look at, not the dollar versus the euro. The euro is going to go down because the IMF is throttling back purchasing power.

~Jim Cramer, "Curb Your Enthusiasm?", Mad Money, May 13th, 2010

Dec 19, 2008

Stephen Jen on the dollar

The dollar's rise is genuine and more deserving than many skeptics have in mind.

~ Stephen Jen, economist, Morgan Stanley, "What's Driving Up the Dollar," BusinessWeek, December 8, 2008

Sep 27, 2008

Marc Faber on the U.S. dollar

My view is everything is bad in the United States, but elsewhere it's even worse. So relative to the rest of the world, also based on the price level, I think that the U.S. dollar is actually quite attractive.

~ Marc Faber, Bloomberg TV, September 26, 2008

May 4, 2008

Henry Paulson on the dollar

I'm a strong dollar man, we have a strong dollar policy. Our long-term economic fundamentals compare very favorably when I look around the world, and I think they're going to be reflected in the value of our currency.

~ Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, "Paulson Says U.S. Credit-Market Crisis Is 'Closer to the End'," Bloomberg, May 1, 2008, by Peter Cook and John Brinsley)

Dec 9, 2007

Shopper from Ireland on the strong euro

Everything is half price for us.

~ Ashlee Clifford, 26, of Northern Ireland, shopping at a Circuit City Store in Manhattan, "Shoppers Hit Stores For Early-Bird Deals, But It's Just a Start," Investor's Business Daily, November 26, 2007

(Shoppers from overseas reveled as the dollar, at record lows vs. the euro, made discounts even deeper.)

Nov 11, 2007

Gene Epstein: "Mildly bullish" on the dollar

THIS WEEK MARKS THE SECOND ANNIVERSARY of the dollar's most recent near-death experience. The greenback handily avoided the fate that those in the know expected in 2004 as worries mounted about America's trade deficit. There might be a lesson or two in that turnaround tale for those who still believe the dollar will eventually succumb. In any case, the story helps inspire this constructive outlook for the greenback.

To be "constructive" is to be mildly bullish. The U.S. Dollar Index, which reflects the dollar's strength against a basket of currencies, is now at a reading of about 85, down from its 2002 high of 120. Over the next 12 months, it's more likely to climb back to 90 than to move sideways or go down. One reason: The rise in U.S. interest rates over the past few years has attracted more foreign capital to dollar-denominated investments.

~ Gene Epstein, economics editor, Barron's, "The Buck Takes Wing," November 20, 2006

Nov 10, 2007

Alan Abelson: Still bearish on the dollar

GISELE BUNDCHEN IS A MUCH-IN-DEMAND BRAZILIAN who commands a king's ransom to do her modeling thing. We admit that Gisele was completely unknown to us (which, it appears, and we say this somewhat ruefully, didn't hurt her career one whit) until her highly publicized pronouncement that henceforth the king would have to pay his ransom in euros, not dollars, for her services.

In the case of the dollar, we doubt if there's a sentient being anywhere who's unaware of its horribly reduced status. And since the decline and fall of the dollar apes the woes besetting the economy at large and the financial system in particular and we see no immediate relief in sight for either, Gisele, we submit, is right on the money.

~ Alan Abelson, "Day of Reckoning," Barron's, November 12, 2007