Lao Tzu on living in the present

If you're depressed, you're living in the past. 

If you're anxious, you're living in the future. 

If you're at peace, you're living in the present. 

~ Lao Tzu

Bob Rodriguez: "We are in a form of rolling depression"

What the Fed threw at the system was emergency stabilization. In light of these actions, the economy remains in a quite tenuous position. In fact, I've used a phrase with my former colleagues and friends – we are in a form of “rolling depression.” We're not in a recession. Most people don't know the difference between recession and depression, other than saying, "a depression is worse than a recession." A depression occurs when there is a structural shift downwards in the economy, and it stays near this lower level of economic activity for a prolonged period of time.

~ Bob Rodriguez, "Bob Rodriguez: We are in a Rolling Depression," by Robert Huebscher, Advisor Perspectives, September 7, 2020

Mark Zandi on the risk of reopening the economy too soon

I think if we reopen too quickly and we see infections rise, get a second wave and that causes more business disruption, we may not shut down again, but certainly it'll scare people, spook people and weigh on the economy.  That would be the fodder for a depression.

Mark Zandi, "US risking a second wave and a depression," CNBC interview, 3:40 mark, May 8, 2020

Charlie Munger: Great Depression will be prevented by active government

Of course we’re having a recession. The only question is how big it’s going to be and how long it’s going to last. I think we do know that this will pass. But how much damage, and how much recession, and how long it will last, nobody knows.

I don’t think we’ll have a long-lasting Great Depression. I think government will be so active that we won’t have one like that. But we may have a different kind of a mess. All this money-printing may start bothering us.

~ Charlie Munger, "Charlie Munger: The Phone Is Not Ringing Off the Hook'," WSJ, April 17, 2020

Harry Reid on the consequences of a US debt default

[If the U.S. defaults] a massive financial disaster will sweep the world in a global depression.

~Harry Reid, US Congressional representative from Nevada, July 14, 2011

Bob Doll says the risks are to the upside in 2011

First, why are individuals shunning stocks? We cut them in half in 2000. We cut them in half again from 2007-2009. They're scared. That's to be expected. You have to ask, OK, what are the alternatives? And where have they been putting their money? We all know they've been selling stocks and buying bonds. You look at the big gap that's opened up in the valuation of stocks vs. bonds, and you've got to believe, unless the world is going to end and we are going to have a depression, that the gap is going to close.

We all know that the public tends to buy after things are moving up. So maybe what we've seen in the last few weeks is the beginning of the reversal.

The difference is, in 2010 the risks were more to the downside. In 2011, in my view, the risk is more to the upside. So if we're wrong, I think our forecast is too low.

~Bob Doll, chief equity strategist, BlackRock, "Experts agree: Get over your fear and get back into stocks", USA Today, December 17th, 2010

BlackRock's Bob Doll says economic recovery clears the way for stocks in 2011

If you don't believe in a depression, and I don't, stocks will go up and bonds will go down in the next few years.

~ Bob Doll, chief equity strategist, BlackRock, "Experts agree: Get over your fear and get back into stocks", USA Today, December 17th, 2010

Bill Bonner on modern day depressions

We repeat: there were only two examples of major depressions in the last century. Both came after a huge run-up in debt. And both were met with programs that economists should be ashamed of – bailouts, stimulus, loans, props, safety nets and hooks. In both cases – the ’30s in the United States and the ’90s in Japan – the depressions continued, on and off, for many years. WWII brought an end to the first one – 12 years after it began. The second one continues – nearly 20 years after the crash of the Tokyo stock market.

And now we have a third one…and this time the feds are determined to beat it. What’s their strategy? More firepower! What’s their secret weapon? QE, or quantitative easing, which is actual monetary inflation caused by buying debt directly from the government.

Will it work? Will Geithner/Bernanke succeed where others failed? Will economists finally master depressions…and find a way to get “creative” without the destruction?

Ah…we think we know the answer. But in the meantime, we’re enjoying the show.

~ Bill Bonner, "Get Set for a 15-Year Depression," LewRockwell.com, March 26, 2009

Paul McCulley: Bernanke won't allow a depression

We are not going to have a depression. Ben Bernanke is not going to allow us to have a depression.

~ Paul McCulley, Pimco, as appeared on CNBC, December 27, 2008

Murray Rothbard on the source of the business cycle and how to end a depression

So now we see, at last, that the business cycle is brought about, not by any mysterious failings of the free market economy, but quite the opposite: By systematic intervention by government in the market process. Government intervention brings about bank expansion and inflation, and, when the inflation comes to an end, the subsequent depression-adjustment comes into play... what the government should do, according to the Misesian analysis of the depression, is absolutely nothing. It should, from the point of view of economic health and ending the depression as quickly as possible, maintain a strict hands off, "laissez-faire" policy. Anything it does will delay and obstruct the adjustment process of the market; the less it does, the more rapidly will the market adjustment process do its work, and sound economic recovery ensue. The Misesian prescription is thus the exact opposite of the Keynesian: It is for the government to keep absolute hands off the economy and to confine itself to stopping its own inflation and to cutting its own budget.


~ Murray Rothbard, "Economic Depressions: Their Cause and Cure," 1969