Showing posts with label First Republic Bank. Show all posts
Showing posts with label First Republic Bank. Show all posts

May 11, 2023

Michael Milken on what landed banks in trouble

You shouldn't have borrowed short and lent long.  Finance 101.  How many times, how many decades are we going to learn this lesson of borrowing overnight and lending long?  Whether it was 1970s, the 1980s, the '90s and again here.  The banks have enough credit.  They had enough equity.  The had enough ability to absorb credit losses that are coming.  

However, what they did was doubled, tripled, quadrupled their size by borrowing overnight at artificially low rates and buying intermediate securities.  There's $30 trillion of them out there and let's say they're worth 85 cents on the dollar.  Who has an unrealized loss of  three trillion dollars?  What we know, number one, is the Fed has the largest share of that loss, $800 billion or $900 billion, but they can print money so that isn't an issue...  What we saw here is organizations - great companies - like Silicon Valley Bank, like First Republic, what they turned themselves into was adding to income by borrowing short and lending long.  In the case of Silicon Valley, really government agencies, municipals, in the case of First Republic, fixed-rate mortgages with floating rate liabilities.

So this is Finance 101.  People are so focused on credit risk, etc., but one of the great risks is interest rate risk. 

~ Michael Milken, CNBC interview, 1:15 mark, May 2, 2023





May 3, 2023

Mohamed El-Erian on JPMorgan's takeover of failed First Republic Bank

Look at what JPMorgan acquired.  First Republic was one of the most envied banks.  Why?  It had very rich depositors, it was able to make jumbo mortgages to very creditworthy clients and it had what was viewed as the best client experience, the best customer service.  All that is now acquired by JPMorgan at a cost that's only moderately more than what they would have lost [$5 billion] in their deposits that they put in First Republic.  So for JPMorgan, that is a great deal.  And you see that in the stock price.  Now will it make a huge difference to the bank?  No.  But at the margin it is undoubtedly and unambiguously beneficial to JPMorgan.

~ Mohamed El-Erian, interview on CNBC, May 1, 2023