America seems to be stuck in the Middle East. It has no easy way out of its war with Iran. Yet the conflict, however it ends, will in fact mark something quite different: the moment when America pulls back from the region—in the sense that it finally relinquishes its hegemony there. For the first time since the great powers dismembered the Ottoman empire a century ago, the Middle East’s overarching order will no longer be imposed from afar. Will that herald an orgy of score-settling and violence, or a new beginning?
After three wars, countless covert operations and seemingly endless rounds of diplomacy, America's attempts to impose its designs have run their course. Like Britain, France and Russia, America will still be involved. It will occasionally use military force to pursue its interests, including for counter-terrorism. But it will abandon its role as architect.
The signs of America's looming retrenchment are unmistakable—even as President Donald Trump uses the annual meeting of the UN to threaten Iran with "annihilation" for the umpteenth time. Two stand out. Earlier this month America declined to join its ally Saudi Arabia in striking the Houthis in Yemen, who are endangering shipping in the Red Sea. Instead it held talks behind the Saudis' backs to spare American vessels from attack. That may seem like a detail, but when a superpower does deals with an insurgent militia, everyone understands it wants to cut its commitments.
The other sign is the expectation that America will limit its presence in the Middle East. In peacetime it has 30,000-40,000 troops on 19 bases, eight of which are permanent. However, the war has exposed how vulnerable they are to drones and cheap missiles.
~ "When America walks away: For decades America has enjoyed hegemony over the Middle East. That is about to end," The Economist, September 24, 2026
