Jeffrey Frankel: "Economic activity is not falling" (2022)

Economic activity is not falling.  Quite the contrary.  It is booming.

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At some point there will be another recession.  But the odds that it will hit the U.S. this year are nowhere near has high as people seem to think.  In a random year, the odds are about 15%.  Currently, they are higher than that.  But not much.

~ Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard professor and member of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee from 1992-2019