We estimate that the wealth effect on total consumer spending is 4.5 cents. That is, for every $1 change in household wealth, consumer spending ultimately changes by 4.5 cents. Close to one-fourth of the growth in consumer spending during the current economic expansion, and one-third of the spending over the past year, is thus due to the wealth effect. The wealth effects are especially large for spending on travel and home improvement, and small for groceries and drugstores.
The wealth effects are at their maximum one year after the change in wealth, and they are bigger when asset prices are falling than when prices are rising. This suggests that if we were to suffer a major correction in stock price or housing values, consumer spending and the broader economy would be substantially impacted.
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