Charlie Munger on Xi Jinping

I have more optimism about the leader of the Chinese Party than most people do.  He's done a lot right, too.  He led a big anti-corruption drive.  He's done a lot of things right...  Where is there a place where the government is perfect in the world of sin and sorrow?  Democracies aren't that brilliantly run either.  

So it's natural to have some decisions made by government that don't work well.  It's natural to have decisions in each individual life that don't work very well.  We live in a world of sin, sorrow and mis-decision.  That's what human beings get to cope with in their days of life.  So I don't expect the world to be free of folly and mistakes and so forth.  I just hope I'm invested with people who have more good judgment than bad judgment.  I don't know anybody who's right all the time.

~ Charlie Munger, CNBC interview, 4:10 mark, February 16, 2023

Charlie Munger on investing in China

You can buy better, stronger companies at a cheaper valuation in China than you can in the United States.  So the extra risk can be worth running given the extra value you can get.  That's why we're in China.  It isn't like we prefer being in some foreign country.

~ Charlie Munger, CNBC interview, 3:10 mark, February 16, 2023

Tim Chen on the state of the consumer: "feels like a tale of two cities"

The state of the consumer feels like a tale of two cities.  We're seeing continued strength relative to historical norms in the prime and super-prime segments and definitely some credit deterioration in the near-prime and subprime space.  Credit card balances increased by $61 billion to reach $986 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic high of $927 billion; mortgage balances rose to $11.92 trillion, auto loan balances to $1.55 trillion, and student loan balances to $1.60 trillion," The New York Federal Reserve Bank stated in its quarterly report on household debt and credit. "

~ Tim Chen, NerdWallet CEO, "NerdWallet CEO: US consumer health 'feels like a tale of two cities'," Yahoo Finance Live, February 17, 2023

("Credit card balances increased by $61 billion to reach $986 billion, surpassing the pre-pandemic high of $927 billion; mortgage balances rose to $11.92 trillion, auto loan balances to $1.55 trillion, and student loan balances to $1.60 trillion," The New York Federal Reserve Bank stated in its quarterly report on household debt and credit.)

Joel Tillinghast on independent thinking

On the whole, students with high grade point averages achieve them through curiosity and diligence, but it's also possible to get high marks by gaming the system, sucking up to professors, and regurgitating whatever they want to hear.  In investing, where doing nothing often prevents blunders, a certain style of laziness is adaptive, but mental laziness isn't, and not thinking independently is absolutely toxic.  The entire game is about figuring out what others have missed.  The largest prizes go to those who think differently and correctly.  Some investing ideas will look stupid or crazy, and a few will be, but the alternative is mediocrity.  Depending on the results, you will be called courageous, or arrogant and foolhardy.  Don't be ashamed of error, only of failing to correct it.

~ Joel Tillinghast, Big Money Thinks Small, p. 41

Joel Tillinghast: "Every skilled investor I've met has been a curious and a lifelong learner"

Every skilled investor I've met has been a curious and a lifelong learner.  They read broadly and constantly.  For anticipating the future, it's more important to understand why things happen than what happened...  Curiosity needs to be balanced with skepticism.  Everyone needs a spam filter and a crap detector - some way of classifying and throwing away redundant or wrong information.  Things are often not as they seem in finance.  Be skeptical and willing to challenge ideas others take for granted.

~ Joel Tillinghast, Big Money Thinks Small, p. 41

Reuters: "U.S. household debt jumped to a record $16.90 trillion"

U.S. household debt jumped to a record $16.90 trillion from October through December last year, the largest quarterly increase in 20 years, as mortgage and credit card balances surged amid high inflation and rising interest rates, a Federal Reserve report showed on Thursday. 

Household debt, which rose by $394 billion last quarter, is now $2.75 trillion higher than just before the COVID-19 pandemic began while the increase in credit card balances last December from one year prior was the largest since records began in 1999, the New York Fed's quarterly household debt report also said.

~ Reuters, "U.S. household debt jumps to $16.90 trillion," February 16, 2023

Joel Tillinghast on speculation

Speculation, properly done, isn't gambling.  Like sex, speculation has a shady reputation but is universally practiced, often enjoyed and none of us would be here without it.

~ Joel Tillinghast, Big Money Thinks Small, p. 30