Kevin Duffy on the seeds of the everything bubble

Most stocks peaked one month after Biden took office while large cap stocks peaked about 11 months later. The factors that create a stock market bubble take years to build up, so if you really want to understand what happened, you have to study that earlier period.

The sad truth is that government stimulus to fight a virus created this mess (but the seeds were planted earlier with the stimulus/bailouts of 2008). That includes checks mailed directly to people. Where did this money come from? The Federal Reserve "printed it," as its balance sheet more than doubled. This all happened under the Trump administration, but was supported by BOTH parties.

As for the quagmire in Afghanistan, this began under G. W. Bush and was continued under Obama and Trump. The chickens finally came home to roost. I'm not excusing the exit strategy, which was a typical government boondoggle, just pointing out that we never should've gone in there in the first place. This was supported by BOTH parties and 80% of the American people who wanted vengeance after 9/11.

People need to look in the mirror and take responsibility for these disastrous policies. Instead, they will blame anyone but themselves and the problems will get worse. As Einstein may have said (or not), "insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."

~ Kevin Duffy, Facebook post, June 24, 2022

Charlie Munger on trust

Of all forms of pride, perhaps the most desirable is a justified pride in being trustworthy.

~ Charlie Munger

Dan Ferris on index funds

Psychologically, you've gotten used to buying every dip for the last 13 years going back to 2009.  Psychologically, you've gotten used to the fact that your bonds protect you from the drawdowns in your stocks.  And it's really hard to shake these.  We still have people saying, "Oh, the best thing you can do is just buy an index fund and hold it for the long-term, and Warren Buffett says to do it, so you know it's really good."  But Warren Buffett is a beneficiary of this status quo...  He's worth tens of billions of dollars because of this financialization...  So it's sort of weird to listen to somebody like that at this moment.  Nobody's right all the time and nobody's right forever.  And what looks like long-term wisdom of the ages can sometimes look really bad for awhile and I think right now we're learning that just buying an index fund and hanging onto it might not be the greatest thing in the world.  This might not be a great moment to double down.

~ Dan Ferris, Stansberry Investor Hour, 8:45 mark, June 21, 2022

Doug Casey on trends and inflection points

Trends in motion tend to stay in motion until they reach a climax.  At which point, anything can happen.

But unfortunately, at great revolutionary turning points in civilization—which we’re involved in now—things usually get worse even after the old trend stops.  This happened in Russia in 1917 and in France in 1789.  Just because the old trend finally runs into a brick wall doesn’t mean that things get better right away.  There’s a period of chaos after that.

~ Doug Casey, "Doug Casey on Why Woke Corporations Will Go Broke," International Man, June 14, 2022

Doug Casey on the impact of DIE and ESG on corporate cultures

The concepts of DIE (diversity, inclusion, and equity) and ESG (environmental, social, and governance) have inundated corporate culture like a tidal wave of sewage.  They’re viewed as being good, positive, and something that everybody should observe when they should be thrown out with the garbage.  They’re purely destructive. 

One of the causes for this, other than our corrupt education system, is that corporations today are usually not run by entrepreneurs.  Entrepreneurs, the founders, generally have one way of thinking.  Later, managers take over.  The company is then run by suits, heavy with lawyers and accountants. They’re what the French call “petit fonctionnaires.”  These are people with bureaucratic mindsets, better at backslapping and backstabbing than creating value, who come to consider themselves as masters of the universe.  It’s not good.

~ Doug Casey, "Doug Casey on Why Woke Corporations Will Go Broke," International Man, June 14, 2022

F.A. Hayek on Economics in One Lesson

No other modern book from which the intelligent layman can learn so much about the basic truths of economics in so short a time.

~ F.A. Hayek

Peter Buffett on teaching

Good teachers, in any field, do far more than convey information; they pass along something of themselves.

~ Peter Buffett