Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner on forecasting

There is plenty of room to stake out reasonable positions between the debunkers and the defenders of experts and their forecasts.  On the one hand, the debunkers have a point.  There are shady peddlers of questionable insights in the forecasting marketplace.  There are also limits to foresight that may just not be surmountable.  Our desire to reach into the future will always exceed our grasp.  But debunkers go too far when they dismiss all forecasting as a fool's errand.  I believe it is possible to see into the future, at least in some situations and to some extent, and that any intelligent, open-minded, and hardworking person can cultivate the requisite skills.

Call me an "optimistic skeptic."

~ Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting, p. 6