You can’t understate what is going to happen to productivity in this country. Based on where AI is now, the marginal cost of intelligence in white-collar work is going to zero over the next several years. I’ll give you some examples. MercadoLibre is doing seven times the number of transactions it did several years ago, even as the number of customer service specialists has fallen to 7,000 from 10,000. Rocket Mortgage has said that it can serve 50% more clients per loan officer. In the physical world, trucking companies are using AI to leverage better data systems...
Knowledge workers are using AI – in our case to do investment research – or look for novel drug targets, or improve productivity in coding. Enterprises will continue to pay a premium for better intelligence powered by frontier models, which continue to advance at a rapid rate.
Those who say capex is going to implode may be looking at consumer-oriented AI technology, which has become commoditized. They aren’t taking into account advances in intelligence that will drive advanced applications and scientific breakthroughs. Over the next 10 years, we may have 50 years of advances in medical science. Companies that climb the productivity curve first will be able to cut costs, reinvest in their customers, drive revenue growth, and reinvest capital to create enduring competitive moats.
Companies don’t all climb the curve at the same pace. I foresee an unequal playing field. The Mag Seven will do well, and a lot of smaller companies born in this era will climb the curve and unlock productivity gains.
~ Henry Ellenbogen, "The Roundtable: Part 1," Barron's, January 10, 2026
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