Kevin Duffy on investing: using the past to inform the future

But enough about the past.  Investing, to paraphrase Danish philosopher Søren Kierkegaard, must be understood backwards, but lived forward. 

Where some see randomness and others statistical certainty, the economic historian and forward-looking investor sees patterns and probabilities, motivations and biases, individual calculation and group error.  At times, and to no one’s surprise, guesses about the future can diverge wildly.

~ Kevin Duffy, "Countervailing Forces," The Coffee Can Portfolio, p. 3, October 22, 2024