Jeffrey Anderson on rising crime rates in the U.S.

The NCVS [National Crime Victimization Survey] report for 2023 finds no statistically significant evidence that violent crime or property crime is dropping in America.  Excluding simple assault—the type of violent crime least likely to be charged as a felony—the violent crime rate in 2023 was 19% higher than in 2019, the last year before the defund-the-police movement swept the country. 

But crime hasn’t risen equally across the nation.  America’s recent crime spike has been concentrated in urban areas.  These are the areas in which leftist prosecutors have gained the strongest footholds, where police have been the most heavily scrutinized, and where lax enforcement and prosecution have become common. 

The results aren’t pretty.  According to the NCVS, the urban violent-crime rate increased 40% from 2019 to 2023.  Excluding simple assault, the urban violent-crime rate rose 54% over that span.  From 2022 to 2023, the urban violent-crime rate didn’t change to a statistically significant degree, so these higher crime rates appear to be the new norm in America’s cities. 

The urban property-crime rate is also getting worse.  It rose from 176.1 victimizations per 1,000 households in 2022 to 192.3 in 2023.  That’s part of a 26% increase in the urban property-crime rate since 2019.  These numbers exclude rampant shoplifting, since the NCVS is a survey of households and not of businesses. 

In contrast, violent-crime rates in suburban and rural areas have been essentially unchanged since 2019.  In suburban areas in 2019, there were 22.3 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons 12 or older, compared with 23.3 in 2023—a statistically insignificant change.  In rural areas, the rate was 16.3 in 2019 and 15.3 in 2023—again, not a statistically significant change.  Our recent crime spike is essentially limited to cities.

~ Jeffrey H. Anderson, "Contrary to Media Myth, U.S. Urban Crime Rates Are Up," The Wall Street Journal, September 23, 2024