Marc Faber on China's rise as a manufacturing superpower (2002)

I'll start with emerging markets, where valuations are attractive and expectations are very low.  Since 1990 the markets in the developed countries of Western Europe and the U.S. are up, say, five times.  In emerging economies most markets are down 80% in dollar terms, and earnings are bottoming out.  Money has been flowing out of emerging-market funds for 2-3 years. 

One concern is that Chinese competition will continue to erode the market share of other Asian exporters to Western Europe and the U.S.  In the long run, very few emerging economies will be able to compete with China.  I wouldn't rule out, in 5-10 years' time, the possibility that China becomes the workshop of the world, the way Lancashire [England] did in 1830s.  But China will also become the customer of other emerging economies.  China has a population of 1.2 billion people.  Today less than 1% of the population is outbound, but 5%-10% could be traveling over the next 10-15 years.  That would mean a meaningful influx of tourists into the surrounding countries of Asia, and Australia, New Zealand, the United States and Western Europe.  Food and plantation companies will benefit from Chinese demand.  Companies that cater to domestic consumer demand -- cigarette companies, pharmaceutical companies, software companies -- will also be helped.

~ Marc Faber, "Past and Presents Four pros speak their minds on history, science and compelling stocks," interview by Laura Rublin, Barron's, January 21, 2002

(Emphasis mine.)

Richard Lawrence on active investing

We're just going to keep doing what we're doing.  There's no real reason for us to change.  My dad was a stockpicker, John Bush [my mentor] was a stockpicker, I'm a stockpicker, my younger colleagues are stockpickers.  In 20 years, the world is going to need stockpickers.  The financial market, Wall Street, might want to turn us all into obsolete things with AI and ETFs and whatnot, but I can tell you it's not going to happen.

~ Richard Lawrence, "Betting Big on China & Lessons from Bear Markets," We Study Billionaires, 1:11:20 mark, September 19, 2024

Richard Lawrence on China's competitiveness

In the U.S., there's a certain arrogance that China's weak and has been brought to its knees and doesn't have technology and is massively overlevered and I think that's not really realistic.  If you look carefully at the semiconductor [industry], which is something I've been tracking for nearly 24 years, we can try to restrict advanced semiconductors from China, but China takes a very long view of this stuff.  And I guess in 8-10 years they're going to have similar levels of technology.  And that will have happened faster than if we had really sat down and talked about what are the uses in China for the advanced technology, the advanced chips, how to keep them out of the military.  

Well, if we ask them to keep the advanced chips out of the military, well then they're going to ask us to keep our chips out of our advanced military.  So that just hits loggerheads because our military in the U.S., there's a certain arrogance that comes with it.  So those are complicated problems that need to be resolved.

But to me I would say there are five semiconductor markets and the advanced one that goes into military equipment is really probably the smallest of all of them.  And so let's talk about the other four markets and see what we can do on that.  But there's basically no talking at this point.

~ Richard Lawrence, "Betting Big on China & Lessons from Bear Markets," We Study Billionaires, 59:30 mark, September 19, 2024

Richard Lawrence on the macro situation in China

Q: How would you describe the current macro situation in China?

A: Let's start off with the stuff that really matters, which is things like balance sheets.  They've got $3 trillion of Forex reserves.  The household bank deposits are double the size of market capitalization of the stock markets and it nearly tripled the size of annual retail sales.  So the individual Chinese consumer has a lot of firepower in the bank deposit...  Loan-to-deposit ratios are conservative, the capital adequacy ratio at the banks is okay.  So those balance sheet items are all in very good order.  Current account surplus, small government deficit.  So that's not the problem.  The problem is really a lack of confidence.

~ Richard Lawrence, "Betting Big on China & Lessons from Bear Markets," We Study Billionaires, 54:30 mark, September 19, 2024

Edwin Dorsey on the importance of long-term thinking in business

The single idea, and we've touched on this a little bit, is I believe there's a lot of things that businesses can do to make the numbers better in the short-term, but hurt the long-term value.  You can raise prices, you can make it more difficult to cancel, you can make it more difficult to get refunds, you can cut corners on content moderation.  All these things help the numbers in the short-term, so they make the stock more attractive in the short-term while harming long-term value.  And seeing that disconnect when it occurs is where I think a lot of investors can profit.

The final idea is businesses can easily do things that help the short-term numbers and hurt long-term value.

~ Edwin Dorsey, "Simple Yet Powerful Tips for Short Selling - Exposing the Red Flags," Stansberry Investor Hour, 57:30 mark, November 4, 2024

The Economist on growing anxiety in America

Ordinary Americans are anxious.  Gallup, a polling firm, regularly asks Americans if they are satisfied with how things are going.  From 1980 until the early 2000s, a little more than 40%, on average, said they were.  Over the past two decades that has dropped to 25%.

~ "The envy of the world: The American economy has left other rich countries in the dust. Expect that to continue...," The Economist, October 19, 2024

Harris Kupperman on the hedge fund business

It's a lifestyle business.  I'm going to be doing this for the rest of my life probably.  I actually enjoy it.  Like I said, this is my hobby.  Made a bunch of money.  I don't do it because I want to make more money.  I make it because I want to be in the game.  I want to beat the S&P 500, but more important, I want to beat all my friends who I think are top-notch, 0.1% hedge fund managers.  I want to beat them, too.  That's what I'm passionate about.

~ Harris Kupperman, "How to Scale a Hedge Fund | Harris Kupperman on Praetorian Capital," The Monetary Matters Network, November 6, 2024

Harris Kupperman on politics and investing

I tend to wear my politics on my sleeve; I hate both parties.  I don't like government regulation.  I don't like rules.  I'm more of a Ron Paul kind of guy.

[...]

We're going to own gun stocks, we're going to own oil and gas, we don't do ESG.

[...]

It's a trust-based business.  You can't really hide who you are.

~ Harris Kupperman, "How to Scale a Hedge Fund | Harris Kupperman on Praetorian Capital," The Monetary Matters Network, November 6, 2024

Kevin Duffy on Donald Trump, the "new boss," and the left-right political spectrum

The problem is that people choose a side and lose their objectivity. Trump started the vaccines under Operation Warp Speed.  He also got the stimulus ball rolling with the CARES Act (which sent out stimmie checks directly to people).  The Fed under his watched expanded its balance sheet 68% in 6 months to pay for it. 

What did the Biden administration do?  Did it change course?  No, it added to the stimulus, rolled out the vaccines using an intense marketing campaign, and kept printing money (Fed assets grew 20% in year 1).  Biden also expanded Trump's tariffs on trade with China.

Objectively, how well did these policies work?  1) The vaccines at best were ineffective.  At worst they led to an inordinate number of adverse reactions.  2) The stimulus drug wore off.  3) Inflation was unleashed.

All we have to show for this orgy of government intervention into our lives is a 50% jump in the national debt, higher interest rates, and interest expense on that debt that now exceeds the entire military budget.  So of course the incumbent party lost!

"Meet the new boss, same as the old boss."

~ Kevin Duffy, Facebook post, November 9, 2024

YouTube comment on anti-China western media headlines since 1990

Here's what western magazines have been saying about China since 1990: 

1990. The Economist: China's economy has come to a halt. 

1996. The Economist: China's economy will face a hard landing. 

1998. The Economist: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth. 

1999. Bank of Canada: Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. 

2000. Chicago Tribune: China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. 

2001. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas: A hard landing in China. 

2002. Westchester University: China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing. 

2003. New York Times: Banking crisis imperils China. 

2004. The Economist: The great fall of China? 

2005. Nouriel Roubini: The Risk of a Hard Landing in China. 

2006. International Economy: Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? 

2007. TIME: Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing? 

2008. Forbes: Hard Landing In China? 

2009. Fortune: China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. 

2010: Nouriel Roubini: Hard landing coming in China. 

2011: Business Insider: A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think. 

2012: American Interest: Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing. 

2013: Zero Hedge: A Hard Landing In China. 

2014. CNBC: A hard landing in China. 

2015. Forbes: Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. 

2016. The Economist: Hard landing looms for China. 

2017. National Interest: Is China's Economy Going To Crash. 

2018. The Daily Reckoning: China's Coming Financial Meltdown. 

2019. BBC: China's Economic Slowdown: How worried should we be? 

2020. New York Times: Coronavirus Could End China's Decades-Long Economic Growth Streak. 

2021. Bloomberg: Chinese economy risks deeper slowdown than markets realize. 

2022. Bloomberg: China Surprise Data Could Spell RECESSION. 

2023. Bloomberg: No word should be off-limits to describe China's faltering economy. ... 

Yet it's already 2024 and China's economy is still going strong.

~ @Shenzhou, "Harvard Economist Reveals Shocking SECRET About China in 2025," YouTube, November 8, 2024

Connor O'Keeffe on the Trump election victory

Trump’s win represents another major and well-deserved repudiation of the Washington establishment. In 2016, Republican voters decisively rejected Jeb Bush—the establishment’s chosen GOP candidate—and sent Donald Trump to the White House on a refreshingly anti-establishment platform. 

While he largely governed like an establishment Republican in his first term, his occasionally anti-establishment rhetoric was enough to prompt a full-court press from the political class to first force him out of office and later to disqualify him from ever holding power again. In the realm of public opinion, the establishment’s chosen tactic was to label Trump a racist, misogynist, wanna-be fascist whose supporters back him simply because they hate everyone who isn’t straight, white, and male.

~ Connor O'Keeffe, "Why Trump's Victory Matters, and Why It Doesn't," Mises Wire, November 8, 2024

Lao Tzu on living in the present

If you're depressed, you're living in the past. 

If you're anxious, you're living in the future. 

If you're at peace, you're living in the present. 

~ Lao Tzu

The Economist on the U.S. economy

In the history of modern economics America's three-decade outperformance is remarkable.  Can it continue?  Throughout this report we will consider reasons for pessimism, from poisonous politics to fiscal frailties.  Set against these are a relentless dynamism, the essential characteristic of the American economy and the ultimate force propelling it forward.

~ "The envy of the world: The American economy has left other rich countries in the dust. Expect that to continue...," The Economist, October 19, 2024

In summing up the Trump and Harris proposals, we point out again that neither candidate knows how to deal with stagflation.  Instead, they call for more government intervention - Trump for tariffs and Harris for more individual and business taxes and for energy policies that will rapidly make life much more difficult for most Americans.

The stagflation of the 1970s was ended by Jimmy Carter's deregulation initiatives, Paul Volcker's end to inflation, and Ronald Reagan's income tax rate cuts.  The economy rebounded nicely and grew to astounding levels.  Unfortunately, the lessons of the early 1980s have been lost, and all of us will pay a price.

~ William L. Anderson, "The Great Retreat: How Trump and Harris Are Looking Backward," The Misesian, September-October 2024

Kevin Duffy on investing in China

Long-term, China is hated for all the right reasons: economically successful, minds its own business, refuses to kowtow to the U.S. and is too big to attack.  In addition, China boasts a smart, hard-working, entrepreneurial culture that values education and has avoided some of the toxic ideologies of the West, like wokeness.  China represents a key control group and geopolitical diversifier.  And it’s on sale.

~ Kevin Duffy, "Portfolio Review," The Coffee Can Portfolio, p. 19, October 22, 2024

Kevin Duffy on being a long-term investor

As a long-term investor, I get far more excited about the quality and number of seeds being planted than the size of the annual harvest.

~ Kevin Duffy, "Portfolio Review," The Coffee Can Portfolio, pp. 15-16, October 22, 2024

Kevin Duffy on competitive edges in the investment business

The keys to the investment business are developing competitive edges and finding clients who will allow you to apply those edges over time.

~ Kevin Duffy, "Fade to Black," The Coffee Can Portfolio, p. 14, October 22, 2024

Kevin Duffy on the Dalbar effect

The dirty little secret of the asset management business is that the sophistication level of one’s clients is paramount.  If they constantly chase what’s hot and panic out of what’s not, all the hard work by the portfolio manager can be negated.  I refer to this pesky boat anchor as the “Dalbar effect,” after an annual study by Dalbar, Inc.  In it, they document how actual investor returns deviate significantly from published returns due to the poor timing of a firm’s clients.  

Aggressive marketing and client quality are inversely related, although Dalbar is unlikely to admit this to their institutional investor clientele.  BlackRock is no doubt an asset gathering machine, but where are the customers’ yachts?  According to my calculations, over the past ten years BLK’s all-important equity iShares franchise (32.5% of base fees in Q3) suffered a headwind (Dalbar effect) of 5.3% per year.  This effectively cut published returns in half.

~ Kevin Duffy, "Fade to Black," The Coffee Can Portfolio, p. 12, October 22, 2024

Kevin Duffy on the passive bubble

Over [the past 10 years], a staggering $6.0 trillion has poured into passively managed funds, with $2.3 trillion pulled from active funds.

~ Kevin Duffy, "Fade to Black," The Coffee Can Portfolio, p. 10, October 22, 2024

Kevin Duffy on technology waves

Technology waves are like hurricane warnings: those who go through them suffer from recency bias.  As the most recent experience is seared into their brains, they swing from underprepared to overprepared for the next one.  The internet altered the economic landscape, wreaking havoc on some and heaping fortunes on others.  (Many of the big winners, including Google, Facebook, Netflix and Salesforce, weren’t even public companies in 2000.)  No one can fault the current crop of high-tech CFOs for clamoring to ride the current AI wave.

~ Kevin Duffy, "Countervailing Forces," The Coffee Can Portfolio, p. 5, October 22, 2024

Kevin Duffy on investing: using the past to inform the future

But enough about the past.  Investing, to paraphrase Danish philosopher Søren Kierkegaard, must be understood backwards, but lived forward. 

Where some see randomness and others statistical certainty, the economic historian and forward-looking investor sees patterns and probabilities, motivations and biases, individual calculation and group error.  At times, and to no one’s surprise, guesses about the future can diverge wildly.

~ Kevin Duffy, "Countervailing Forces," The Coffee Can Portfolio, p. 3, October 22, 2024

Kevin Duffy on writing about politically sensitive topics

I realize taking on politically sensitive topics like Covid, wokeness, China and the Israel-Palestine conflict risks turning away subscribers, but it is a risk I’m willing to take. The last thing the world needs is another conventional, politically-neutered investment letter.

~ Kevin Duffy, "Mailbag," The Coffee Can Portfolio, p. 22, October 22, 2024

2024

Henry Hazlitt on government spending

Everything we get, outside of the free gifts of nature, must in some way be paid for.  The world is full of so-called economists who in turn are full of schemes for getting something for nothing.  They tell us that the government can spend and spend without taxing at all; that it can continue to pile up debt without ever paying it off, because ‘we owe it to ourselves.’ 

~ Henry Hazlitt

William Casey on the CIA

We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false.

~ William J. Casey, CIA Director (1981)

Phil Grant on declining profitability in the asset management industry

Profitability at asset managers has slipped for the past two years and is likely to decline further through 2028 as investors increasingly opt for products with lower fees, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to a new study. 

The study of 40 global asset managers including BlackRock, State Street, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs by German financial strategy advisor zeb Consulting showed their profits in 2023 slipped to 8.2 basis points (0.082%) of assets under management from 10.1 basis points in 2021 and 9.4 points in 2022.

"The good years are over for now," zeb senior consultant Fränk Hamelius, one of the study's authors, said on Monday.

Over the past five years, the assets under management of the firms studied have risen by 8.8% annually on average, but their operating profits have only gone up by 0.7% per annum, it said.

~ Phil Grant, Almost Daily Grant's, October 21, 2024

Brad Gerstner on ChatGPT

We've seen a big lift, the fastest growth at any company I've ever seen at OpenAI, so it's clear it offers value.  200 million weekly average visitors are saying about ChatGPT, "you're valuable enough to me that I'm going to open this thing every week... and I'm going to use it to help me with whatever task I need to complete."  If I look out onto my floor here, all my analysts - every single one of them - they have three screens in front of them and one of the screens is open to ChatGPT.  That is their co-pilot...

I've lived through four super-cycles.  We've lived through internet, lived through mobile, lived through cloud and now we're at the start of the fourth one which is AI.  I have zero doubt it will be bigger than any one of those, and maybe bigger than them combined over the next two decades.  When we go from computers and AIs that really co-pilot our lives to auto-pilot our lives.  They're going to be machines interacting with machines on things like airline maintenance that just do it better than humans.

~ Brad Gerstner, "Why This Investor Doesn't Just Dabble In the Market," The Meb Faber Show, 22:50 mark, October 4, 2024

David Gordon on the Hamiltonian and Jeffersonian visions of America

Most readers of the Mises Wire will be familiar with the account of American history developed in many books by Mises Institute President Thomas J. DiLorenzo.  According to him, American history since our founding as a nation has been shaped by two conflicting traditions: one, begun by Alexander Hamilton, favoring a centralized government and the other, best personified in Thomas Jefferson, supporting decentralized government and the rights of the states and local communities.  Hamilton favored building up American industry artificially through high tariffs, as well as a national bank and a system of costly “national improvements.”  He also supported high government debt to stimulate industry.  Jefferson opposed all of these measures.  Henry Clay’s “American System” continued the Hamiltonian plan, as did Clay’s follower Abraham Lincoln.  In the twentieth century, Franklin Roosevelt’s “New Deal” fits into this paradigm. 

~ David Gordon, "Alexander Hamilton's poisoned legacy," Mises Wire, July 19, 2024

Abby Joseph Cohen on highly educated immigrants in the U.S.

Two-thirds of the Ph.Ds working in the U.S. in medicine and engineering are immigrants.

~ Abby Joseph Cohen, business professor at Columbia University, Barron's Mid-Year Roundtable, July 13, 2024

Tianchen Xu on expected fiscal stimulus measures in China

Our overall take is quite positive in that MoF is willing to tackle China’s many economic challenges by leveraging its borrowing room.  The immediate benefits to the economy will be limited, as the MoF avoided large-scale direct cash handouts to households.  However, its commitment to restoring local public finances through fiscal transfer and debt replacement is highly commendable. 

In the medium term, it will put an end to the aggressive deleveraging by local governments and ease the resulting deflationary pressure.  And as their financial position stabilises, local governments will be better positioned to support the economy by providing public services and embark on public investments.

~ Tianchen Xu, Senior Economist, Economist Intelligence Unit, "China's briefing on stimulus gets lukewarm investor reception," Reuters, October 12, 2024

(Xu reacted to news conference with Finance Minister Lan Foan announcing more "counter-cyclical measures" this year without providing details on size of fiscal stimulus.)

Lauren Templeton and Scott Phillips on bargain hunting in the stock market

The thrill of locating more bargains should be far more rewarding than sitting back and relishing your recent successes.  This idea is embedded in the notion that focusing on the future is more important than focusing on the past.

~ Lauren Templeton and Scott Phillips, Investing the Templeton Way

2008

Jim Grant on value investing

It's an arithmetic truism that bearishness prepares the ground for bullishness; nothing succeeds in the long run like a low entry point.

~ Jim Grant, "Tale of two decades," October 11, 2024

Brendan Ahern on how global investors are underweight Chinese equties

Bank of America does a global portfolio manager survey and they say to mutual fund managers, "what are your favorite trades?"  The #1 trade was [long] Mag 7 and the #2 trade was short China.  And so a lot of that short selling was in Hong Kong and ADRs.  So offshore China...  So those investors who were short China just got run over...  But more importantly, why you're seeing this reaction is that investors globally have been very underweight China.  China's economy is $18 trillion GDP, but India at $3.5 trillion actually was a bigger part of global indices...  It makes no sense, but it just shows there's this incredible underweight Chinese equities globally.  Some of that money that came out of China went into U.S. tech or India or Japan and what you're seeing is a re-rating back in...  That supertanker of underweight doesn't turn on a dime.

~ Brendan Ahern, "Don't Believe the China Boogeyman Narrative," Stansberry Investor Hour, October 7, 2024

Kevin Duffy on the Left and Right

Both sides engage in different forms of tribalism.  The Left is at war with the rich.  The Right is at war with various boogeymen around the world.  Left and Right are at war with each other. 

The state absolutely THRIVES on tribalism.  It's like oxygen.  "War is the health of the state." 

~ Kevin Duffy, tweet, October 9, 2024

Marcus Stanley on $1.6 billion House bill to deliver anti-China propaganda overseas

Since at least 2016, foreign interference in American elections and civil society have become central to American political discourse. The issue is taken extremely seriously by the U.S. government, which has levied sanctions and called out foreign adversaries for sowing “discord and chaos” through their propaganda efforts. 

But apparently Washington takes a different view when it comes to American propaganda operations in foreign countries. On Monday, the House passed HR 1157, the “Countering the PRC Malign Influence Fund,” by a bipartisan 351-36 majority. This legislation authorizes more than $1.6 billion for the State Department and USAID over the next five years to, among other purposes, subsidize media and civil society sources around the world that counter Chinese “malign influence” globally. 

That’s a massive spend — about twice, for example, the annual operating expenditure of CNN. If passed into law it would also represent a large increase in federal spending on international influence operations.

~ Marcus Stanley, "House passes $1.6 billion to deliver anti-China propaganda overseas," Responsible Statecraft, September 11, 2024

Brendan Ahern on the false China narrative

In general, Western media is a source of disinformation.  It’s not a good source for what’s going on [in China]…  Business people and investors have been getting along just fine and the diplomats from both sides have not.  I think the media plays with what DC wants.

~ Brendan Ahern, "Don't Believe the China Boogeyman Narrative," Stansberry Investor Hour, October 7, 2024

Joseph Goebbels on propaganda

Propaganda works best when those who are being manipulated are confident that they are acting on their own free will.

~ Joseph Goebbels, Minister for Public Enlightenment and Propaganda in Nazi Germany

Jerry Kuhlman on Pete Rose, R.I.P.

RIP Mr. Charlie Hustle! 

We were in Vegas on our way to Bryce and Zion and I saw that Pete Rose was signing autographs at some casino in town.  He was my Dad's and my favorite because of the way he played the game.  I wanted to get a pic with him and send it to my Dad for Father's Day.  So I convinced my family to go the next day.  I spent the night before preparing what I wanted to talk to him about, specific plays etc. 

We got there just before they closed, and you could tell he was getting tired of signing.  I was the last person they let sit with him.  He didn't look up at first. 

- I brought up the way he ran out Walks.  ("One in a million times they drop the ball and I'm on second, maybe third.")  He started getting fired up. 

- I brought up the play where he caught the foul ball in the World Series after it popped out of Boone's glove.  I said he would've backed up that play even if it was a spring training game ("because, that's how you play the game") 

- Astros Series... play at the plate.  Took the catcher out like you could then. (" only time I went through a "stop sign" from the 3rd base coach) 

- then he started telling me stories.  It was the best!  They said they had to close the store, but then I said, see my son over there?  His name is Kyle.  I wanted to name him Pete Rose Kuhlman, but my wife wouldn't let me.  He stared down Kim, then laughed. 

I know he wasn't perfect off the field... who is?  If you have an opinion on that, don't post it on my page.

No one PLAYED the game harder.

~ Jerry Kuhlman, Facebook post, September 30, 2024

Kevin Duffy on Pete Rose, the Baseball Hall of Fame and the steroids era

Q: I have been watching a Pete Rose documentary on Max and I have to say there is something wrong with that guy.  He definitely is a gambling addict.  What are your thoughts on him being in the Hall of Fame?  I feel like he should for what he accomplished and how he played the game.  That is a far cry from guys who did steroids and cheated every day and are on the ballot! 

A: Rose definitely deserves to get in on merit, first ballot HOFer.  I might let him in after 20 years.  That's enough punishment for what he did.  We're all human so I'd err on the side of forgiveness.  As for steroids, practically everyone was doing it and the league looked the other way (they benefitted big time from the explosion of HRs).  I'm not a fan of making a few visible guys like Bonds, Sosa, McGuire, Clemens the scapegoats.  

There is no doubt in my mind that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens belong in the HOF.  Bonds will be inducted this summer.  Clemens has failed to make the cut 10 times.  I have little doubt that he would've been a first ballot HOFer had he not used steroids. 

Q: I would agree about forgiving Rose.  He is an old man now and has served his penance so let him in.  The steroid guys were the best in their era but would they have been without the juice? 

A: a) I think steroid use was pervasive and b) the crackdown was largely after the fact.  There was a big window where this was all new, the adverse long-term effects not known and the rules not crystal clear and enforced.  On top of that, incentives matter.  Initially the league looked the other way because they benefited and didn't want to believe it would harm the athletes.  Kind of reminds me of concussions and football.  This was a systemic problem which is why I'm opposed to singling out a few individuals and have them take the fall.  For any organization, the best they can do is to admit a mistake, clean it up and move on.  Take responsibility!  After all, we're all human and make mistakes.  I think most fans will relate, appreciate the honesty and forgive.

~ Kevin Duffy, email exchange, September 24, 2024

Hans-Hermann Hoppe on Javier Milei

From the point of view of an anarcho-capitalism, which he claims is his philosophical conviction, he is of course a disaster.

~ Hans-Hermann Hoppe, "What to Make of Milei," LewRockwell.com, October 3, 2024

Jim Grant on inflation and war

If there's one sure, history-validated cause of inflation, it's war.  It's the activity, which, if carried on at scale, activates the money-printing presses, propels government spending and up-ends public expectations, all to the end of destroying life, property and, not infrequently, currencies.  Abstracting from a particular casus belli, war is malinvestment on a GDP-level scale, an economic calamity for the loser and no certain boon for the winner.  Yet war is what humanity wages.  We the people (through the agency of our tribes and governments) have fought since time immemorial, and the United Nations won't stop us now.

~ Jim Grant, "Where inflation comes from," Grant's Interest Rate Observer, September 27, 2024

Javier Milei on the end of collectivism

We are facing an end of a cycle.  Collectivism and the moral posturing of the UOC Agenda have collided with reality and no longer have credible solutions to offer for the real problems of the world.  In fact, they never did.  If the 2030 Agenda has failed, as its own promoters acknowledge, the response should be to ask ourselves if it was not a poorly conceived program from the start, accept reality and change course.  One cannot insist on persisting in error, doubling down on an agenda that has always failed.

The same happens with ideas that come from the Left.  They design a model according to what they believe humans should do and when individuals freely act otherwise, they have no better solution than to restrict, repress and curtail their freedom.  We in Argentina have already seen with our own eyes what lies at the end of this path of envy and passions: poverty, ignorance, anarchy and the fatal absence of freedom.

~ Javier Milei, speech before United Nations General Assembly, September 25, 2024

WSJ: "The entire art market is reeling"

The crisis at Sotheby’s comes at a time when the entire art market is reeling.  Over the past year, collectors who see art as a financial asset have winced as higher interest rates and inflation made it more expensive to trade art.  Contemporary art buyers have also suffered sticker shock after years of paying ever-higher prices for emerging artists—who may never pay off. Some smaller galleries, who rely on collectors to vouch for unknown artists, have shuttered, while dealers have reported lackluster sales at art fairs. 

Those factors have hurt collectors’ overall confidence.  “I don’t feel like there’s a bunch of collectors waiting out there to save the day this time,” said Dallas collector Howard Rachofsky. 

~ The Wall Street Journal, "The Art Market Is Tanking. Sotheby’s Has Even Bigger Problems.," September 25, 2024

Caitlin Johnstone on uncomfortable truths

To be an authentic person is to constantly plunge headlong into the uncomfortable, the unfamiliar, the unknown and the unpredictable, even when doing so feels like a kind of death, for no other reason than because that’s where the truth is. 

It’s to always welcome the truth with open arms, even when it is unpleasant, embarrassing, inconvenient or downright terrifying, come what may. 

~ Caitlin Johnstone, "To Be an Authentic Person Is To Stare Deeply Into the Face of Uncomfortable Truths," LewRockwell.com, September 24, 2024

Office of the Historian on the Smoot-Hawley tariff

Scholars disagree over the extent of protection actually afforded by the Smoot-Hawley tariff; they also differ over the issue of whether the tariff provoked a wave of foreign retaliation that plunged the world deeper into the Great Depression.  What is certain, however, is that Smoot-Hawley did nothing to foster cooperation among nations in either the economic or political realm during a perilous era in international relations.  It quickly became a symbol of the “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies of the 1930s.  Such policies, which were adopted by many countries during this time, contributed to a drastic contraction of international trade.  For example, U.S. imports from Europe declined from a 1929 high of $1,334 million to just $390 million in 1932, while U.S. exports to Europe fell from $2,341 million in 1929 to $784 million in 1932.  Overall, world trade declined by some 66% between 1929 and 1934. 

Smoot-Hawley marked the end of the line for high tariffs in 20th century American trade policy.  Thereafter, beginning with the 1934 Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act, the United States generally sought trade liberalization through bilateral or multilateral tariff reductions.  To this day, the phrase “Smoot-Hawley” remains a watchword for the perils of protectionism. 

~ Office of the Historian, "Protectionism in the Interwar Period"

Lew Rockwell on the economics of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Trump is unsound on some economic issues, most notably tariffs and deficit spending, but he is no communist.  Harris is.  Her father is a leading Marxist theoretician, and she gives every indication that she follows in his footsteps.

~ Lew Rockwell, "'Lone Nuts' and Political Reality," LewRockwell.com, September 23, 2024

Jeffrey Anderson on rising crime rates in the U.S.

The NCVS [National Crime Victimization Survey] report for 2023 finds no statistically significant evidence that violent crime or property crime is dropping in America.  Excluding simple assault—the type of violent crime least likely to be charged as a felony—the violent crime rate in 2023 was 19% higher than in 2019, the last year before the defund-the-police movement swept the country. 

But crime hasn’t risen equally across the nation.  America’s recent crime spike has been concentrated in urban areas.  These are the areas in which leftist prosecutors have gained the strongest footholds, where police have been the most heavily scrutinized, and where lax enforcement and prosecution have become common. 

The results aren’t pretty.  According to the NCVS, the urban violent-crime rate increased 40% from 2019 to 2023.  Excluding simple assault, the urban violent-crime rate rose 54% over that span.  From 2022 to 2023, the urban violent-crime rate didn’t change to a statistically significant degree, so these higher crime rates appear to be the new norm in America’s cities. 

The urban property-crime rate is also getting worse.  It rose from 176.1 victimizations per 1,000 households in 2022 to 192.3 in 2023.  That’s part of a 26% increase in the urban property-crime rate since 2019.  These numbers exclude rampant shoplifting, since the NCVS is a survey of households and not of businesses. 

In contrast, violent-crime rates in suburban and rural areas have been essentially unchanged since 2019.  In suburban areas in 2019, there were 22.3 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons 12 or older, compared with 23.3 in 2023—a statistically insignificant change.  In rural areas, the rate was 16.3 in 2019 and 15.3 in 2023—again, not a statistically significant change.  Our recent crime spike is essentially limited to cities.

~ Jeffrey H. Anderson, "Contrary to Media Myth, U.S. Urban Crime Rates Are Up," The Wall Street Journal, September 23, 2024

Benjamin Graham on stock investing

Although there are good and bad companies, there is no such thing as a good stock; there are only good stock prices, which come and go.

~ Benjamin Graham

Ian Cassel on stock selection

Stock picking is personal.  It takes a decade or two to develop your temperament (views on risk, time horizon, volatility) and principles (the attributes of business/people you find attractive).  You start the journey as a sponge and end it as a filter.

~ Ian Cassel, editor, MicroCapClub, tweet, September 13, 2024

Tracy Thurman on why the Amish are a critical control group that must preserved

Fifty years ago, most Amish men were farmers.  Twenty-five years ago, it was down to about half.  Today, only a small minority continue to farm, and that number continues to shrink.  The rest become carpenters or tradesmen, and some are forced to adopt technology in order to survive.  Inevitably, their young men bring home influences from the modern world which impact their families.  The culture also depends on sons working alongside their fathers, learning work ethic and mastering manhood.  Because of child labor laws, carpenters and tradesmen cannot bring their sons to work with them the way farmers can – and it’s having a significant impact on the next generation. 

I’ve discussed this issue with hundreds of members of the Amish community, and there is a grave consensus: If they keep losing their farms, they will lose their way of life forever.  Their churches may still meet, the people will still exist, and the name may not change, but Amish culture as we know it will be a thing of the past, and the control group for Big Tech, Big Pharma, Big Medicine, and Big Education and the welfare state will be gone, along with one of the best sources of real food in our nation. 

I believe there are powerful interests that would love such an outcome, because the Amish way of life is drawing far more attention now than it ever has, and is inspiring others to look for ways to escape the control grid.  Many Americans have begun to notice that by opting out of the Great Reset policies, the Amish are healthier, happier, and have stronger communities.  This social control group shows us that you don’t need 16 or 20 years of educational indoctrination from government schools in order to be a productive member of society. 

They demonstrate the benefits of choosing not to be slaves to our technology.  We see that children thrive without screen time, have superior mental health as a result, and fare better when they roam outdoors, get sun exposure, get dirty, and learn to work alongside their family.  Amish health outcomes indicate that kids who are not subjected to dozens of injections have far lower levels of ADHD and autism, and few allergies or autoimmune diseases either.  We can observe that nutrient-dense, farm-fresh foods can help prevent obesity, heal disease, and cut dependence on Big Pharma. 

The Amish show us all these truths, and the would-be controllers of our society don’t like this.  When one runs a society-wide experiment of technological addiction, of social fragmentation, of scaring people out of having children, of government school indoctrination, of universal vaccination, digital ID, digital wallets, and vaccine passports, it’s a problem if the human lab rats in the experiment can look outside the cage and see that another life is possible. 

~ Tracy Thurman, "The Amish: A Control Group for Technofeudalism," Brownstone Institute, September 16, 2024

Jacob Gershman on the sell-or-ban TikTok law

The litigants have asked the D.C. Circuit to rule by Dec. 6 so there is enough time for the Supreme Court to potentially review the case before the law takes effect. 

The law doesn’t make it a crime to use TikTok, but it does prohibit mobile app stores from letting users download or update it. 

The sell-or-ban law gained bipartisan support after lawmakers received warnings from the intelligence community about China’s ability to exploit the app used by some 170 million Americans, roughly half of the population. ByteDance has said it can’t and won’t sell its U.S. operations by the deadline. The Chinese government has also signaled that it won’t allow a forced sale of TikTok to go through. 

Much of the government’s evidence is classified and shielded not just from the public but from TikTok’s lawyers. They said in court papers that the U.S. government hasn’t shown them any evidence that China has manipulated the content that Americans see on TikTok or that China has accessed U.S. user data.

The U.S. government has shown the judges statements from senior intelligence officials about the dangers posed by TikTok and a transcript of a classified House committee hearing from March that fueled the legislation’s passage. Publicly viewable portions of the filings intimate that the government’s national-security concerns are more than hypothetical. 

Casey Blackburn, a senior U.S. intelligence official, wrote in a heavily redacted filing that TikTok’s parent company has a “demonstrated history of manipulating the content on their platforms, including at the direction of the PRC [People’s Republic of China].”

TikTok says it has spent $2 billion walling off U.S. user data on Oracle-owned U.S.-based servers—measures that the U.S. government says fail to adequately insulate TikTok from Chinese influence or prevent user data from being accessed by ByteDance employees located in China. 

~ Jacob Gershman, "Court Appears Skeptical of TikTok’s Challenge to U.S. Ban: Judges are considering the validity of legislation that could shut down Chinese-backed app used by half of Americans," The Wall Street Journal, September 16, 2024

Shou Zi Chew, TikTok’s CEO, in Washington in March