Nov 18, 2024

Marc Faber on China's rise as a manufacturing superpower (2002)

I'll start with emerging markets, where valuations are attractive and expectations are very low.  Since 1990 the markets in the developed countries of Western Europe and the U.S. are up, say, five times.  In emerging economies most markets are down 80% in dollar terms, and earnings are bottoming out.  Money has been flowing out of emerging-market funds for 2-3 years. 

One concern is that Chinese competition will continue to erode the market share of other Asian exporters to Western Europe and the U.S.  In the long run, very few emerging economies will be able to compete with China.  I wouldn't rule out, in 5-10 years' time, the possibility that China becomes the workshop of the world, the way Lancashire [England] did in 1830s.  But China will also become the customer of other emerging economies.  China has a population of 1.2 billion people.  Today less than 1% of the population is outbound, but 5%-10% could be traveling over the next 10-15 years.  That would mean a meaningful influx of tourists into the surrounding countries of Asia, and Australia, New Zealand, the United States and Western Europe.  Food and plantation companies will benefit from Chinese demand.  Companies that cater to domestic consumer demand -- cigarette companies, pharmaceutical companies, software companies -- will also be helped.

~ Marc Faber, "Past and Presents Four pros speak their minds on history, science and compelling stocks," interview by Laura Rublin, Barron's, January 21, 2002

(Emphasis mine.)



No comments: