One concern is that Chinese competition will continue to erode the market share of other Asian exporters to Western Europe and the U.S. In the long run, very few emerging economies will be able to compete with China. I wouldn't rule out, in 5-10 years' time, the possibility that China becomes the workshop of the world, the way Lancashire [England] did in 1830s. But China will also become the customer of other emerging economies. China has a population of 1.2 billion people. Today less than 1% of the population is outbound, but 5%-10% could be traveling over the next 10-15 years. That would mean a meaningful influx of tourists into the surrounding countries of Asia, and Australia, New Zealand, the United States and Western Europe. Food and plantation companies will benefit from Chinese demand. Companies that cater to domestic consumer demand -- cigarette companies, pharmaceutical companies, software companies -- will also be helped.
~ Marc Faber, "Past and Presents Four pros speak their minds on history, science and compelling stocks," interview by Laura Rublin, Barron's, January 21, 2002
(Emphasis mine.)
No comments:
Post a Comment