Goldman Sachs strategist ready to buy the dip on Omicron variant scare

We think a broad risk recovery may be impeded in the near term by the need to digest the prospect of a more hawkish Fed and a less consistent cyclical tailwind.  Ironically, the Omicron scare itself may now create the best possibilities for relief in the coming weeks, either because incoming news is better than feared or because it prompts monetary policymakers to take a more cautious stance toward tightening.

~ Dominic Wilson, Goldman Sachs strategist, client note, November 29, 2021

Calvin Lapp on the three things the Amish don't like

There’s three things the Amish don’t like: that’s government – they won’t get involved in government. They don’t like the public education system – they won’t send their children to education.  And they also don’t like the health system – they rip us off.  Those are three things that we feel like we’re fighting against all the time.  But those three things are part of what COVID is.

~ Calvin Lapp, Amish Mennonite, "How Amish Communities Achieved 'Herd Immunity' Without Higher Death Rates, Lockdowns, Masks or Vaccines," The Pulse, November 25, 2021

George Orwell on gun control

That rifle on the wall of the labourer's cottage or working class flat is the symbol of democracy.  It is our job to see that it stays there. 

~ George Orwell

(The photo below was taken by Dennis Call: "I love to wander the backroads of Texas.  It may never get completed, but I am putting together a coffee-table book called "Driving Texas."  It is a picture book of places/sights/only in Texas and other items of interest.")

"Only in Texas!"

Dr. Aseem Malhotra on the vaccines and link to heart disease

I think now it's high time that policy makers around the world put an end to the mandates because I think if this signal [heart disease link with Covid vaccines] is strong and if it's correct, then history will not be on their side and the public will not forgive them for it.

~ Dr. Aseem Malhotra, "Explosive Interview, UK Cardiologist Highlights Link Between mRNA Vaccines and Heart Disease, While Noting Researchers Withholding Data Fearful of Losing Funding," The Last Refuge, 2:50 mark, November 27, 2021

Josef Lakonishok on the importance of valuations on momentum investing

We tried to see if valuations also matter within momentum.  So actually what we did, we looked at companies with high momentum, low momentum, deciles, quintiles, whichever you want to do, and then we looked at the valuations.  Let’s call it momentum factor.  So when the momentum factor is cheap, it kind of tends to do well.  But when the momentum factor is crazy expensive, the high momentum guys are very expensive relative to low momentum guys, subsequently the return on this momentum factor is nothing to write home about.  And I actually find it to be a very interesting finding because valuations always matter.  We know that valuations matter when you compare value to growth.  Valuations matter when you compare high momentum to low momentum.  I’m sure that it matters when you compare large companies to small companies.  So for me it is just another indication that you cannot run away from valuation.

~ Josef Lakonishok, LSV Asset Management, "Value For the Long Run" roundtable discussion, October 28, 2020

Penn State football coach James Franklin on Covid vaccines

I don’t think they want me to get into the exact percentage of where we’re at.  It’s something that I’ve been tracking all year long and been very aggressive...  For me to sit here and tell you I’m happy, I’m not going to be happy until it’s 100%.  That is staff, players and everybody associated with the program. 

I think vaccination rates are clearly going to be a competitive advantage or a competitive disadvantage.  I’ve stated that very clearly to my team.  If you have a certain position that has low vaccination rates, then all of a sudden you get somebody that pops positive and you lose four guys at one position, that’s going to be a challenge.  That’s going to be an issue.

~ James Franklin, "Penn State football coach James Franklin, players pushing for vaccinations among personnel," Centre Daily Times, July 10, 2021

(At Big Ten Media Days Thursday on July 8, coach Franklin said his team had over a 70% vaccination rate.)

Dr. Sohrab Lutchmedial on the Covid vaccine (2021)

So happy to do my part.  I'm really looking forward to visiting my father again and not being worried when I do.

~ Dr. Sohrab Lutchmedial, after receiving his first mRNA vaccine, January 16, 2021

For those who won't get the vaccine for selfish reasons - whatever - I won't cry at their funeral.

~ tweet, July 10, 2021

The vaccine has been tested on youth and looks undeniably safe.  You have a higher chance of getting into a car accident on your way to hockey practice than you do having a complication from this vaccine.

~ Facebook post, September 25, 2021

I think all of us would treat that unvaxxed patient with respect and to the best of our abilities.  But the people that convinved them not to get vaxxed?  I want to punch those people in the face.

~ tweet, October 9, 2021

Dr. Lutchmedial received his third vaccine shot on October 24 and passed away in his sleep on November 8.

1969-2021

Kyle Rittenhouse on Joe Biden calling him a white supremacist

Tucker Carlson: What did you make of the president of the United States calling you a white supremacist?

Kyle Rittenhouse: Mr. President, if I could say one thing to you, I would urge you to go back and watch the trial and understand the facts before you make a statement.

Carlson: That's not a small thing to be called that.

Rittenhouse: No, it's actual malice, defaming my character for him to say something like that.

~ Kyle Rittenhouse, interview with Tucker Carlson, Fox News, 6:00 mark, November 22, 2021

Jeffrey Tucker on political ideology

Every political ideology has three elements: a vision of hell with an enemy that needs to be crushed, a vision of a more perfect world, and a plan for transitioning from one to the other.

~ Jeffrey Tucker, "The Totalitarian Ideology of Lockdownism," Brownstone Institute, August 9, 2021

Abraham Lincoln declares Thanksgiving a national holiday

I do, therefore, invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea, and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next as a day of Thanksgiving and Prayer to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the heavens.  And I recommend to them that, while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to His tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty hand to heal the wounds of the nation, and to restore it, as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes, with the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquility, and union.

~ Abraham Lincoln, October 3, 1863

Kevin Duffy on the meaning of Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving has become a personal reminder that the early settlements started out as failures in common ownership, but succeeded by adopting private property, laying the foundation for the prosperity we enjoy today.

~ Kevin Duffy

Nathan Mech on the forgetten victims of Covid-19

Human beings are not merely bodies subject to viral infection, but social and spiritual beings, dependent on established ways of life and vulnerable to fear and isolation. Culture and society evolved to fulfill the many physical, emotional, and spiritual needs of the population, and huge changes to this way of life cause unintended effects across the entire ecosystem. The past twenty months have demonstrated this more than ever. 

~ Nathan Mech, "The Forgotten Victims of COVID-19: 7 Groups Punished by Lockdowns," FEE.org, November 19, 2021

Warren Buffett on how size will limit performance

We face another obstacle: In a finite world, high growth rates must self-destruct. If the base from which the growth is taking place is tiny, this law may not operate for a time. But when the base balloons, the party ends: A high growth rate eventually forges its own anchor. 

~ Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway 1989 Annual Report, March 2, 1990

Warren Buffett on how to value a business

What counts... is intrinsic value - the figure indicating what all of our constituent businesses are rationally worth.  With perfect foresight, this number can be calculated by taking all future cash flows of a business - in and out - and discounting them at prevailing interest rates.  So valued, all businesses, from manufacturers of buggy whips to operators of cellular phones, become economic equals.

~ Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway 1989 Annual Report, March 2, 1990

Warren Buffett on integrity

If you take the high road it's never crowded.

~ Warren Buffett

Burl East on the economics of the gambling business

At a casino, the only math you need to know is this: Every dollar that enters a casino leaves as 78 cents.

~ Burl East, portfolio manager, Altegris/AACA Opportunistic Real Estate Fund, "On the Lookout for Powerful Properties," Barron's, January 1, 2018

John Doerr on supervoting shares

Investors have gotten the greatest rewards from the companies that take a long-term point of view.  In the right circumstances, I'm a fan of founder control.  Google's three-class stock structure allows the founders to concentrate on the long run. [Co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin own the supervoting Class B shares.]  The structure is fully disclosed, and investors don't have to buy the stock if they don't like it.

~ John Doerr, "John Doerr on Leadership, Education, Google, and AI," Barron's, May 5, 2018

Charlie Munger on victimhood vs. soldiering through

Some people just naturally complain and other people just naturally put their head down and sail through it - soldier through it.  Warren and I believe in soldiering through without too much fuss.  I have the theory that the dumbest thing you can do in life is to ever feel like a victim.  And any politician that makes people feel like victims, I automatically dislike.  I never saw any good to come of feeling like a victim.  Even if you are a victim I think it's a mistake.

The Chinese were living in poverty, subsistence agriculture, in caves and so on.  Real poverty, hundreds of millions of them.  They worked their way out of poverty.  And look at them now.  How would it have worked if they'd known "we'll vote ourselves rich, we'll raise the minimum wage?"  It's just so much better to use the Chinese way.  They just soldiered through and worked their way out.

~ Charlie Munger, "Charles Munger Interview - Becoming Warren Buffett," 7:00 mark, HBO / Kunhardt Film Foundation, July 20, 2021

Charlie Munger on Warren Buffett's relationship with his father

Warren's father was a strong ideologue, real old fashioned right wing ideologue, as was his grandfather.  His father was so intense about it that Warren just decided that it was a mistake, that it cabbaged up your head to be that much of an ideologue.  So he loved his father, but he didn't want to become that much of a true believer in anything.  And so he avoided it.

~ Charlie Munger, "Charles Munger Interview - Becoming Warren Buffett," 7:00 mark, HBO / Kunhardt Film Foundation, July 20, 2021

CNN on China's rejection of "Western values"

Since taking office in late 2012, Xi has repeatedly warned against the "infiltration" of Western values such as democracy, press freedom and judicial independence. He has clamped down on foreign NGOs, churches, as well as Western textbooks — all seen as vehicles for undue foreign influence. 

That has fueled a growing strand of narrow-minded nationalism, which casts suspicion on any foreign ties and views feminism, the LGBTQ movement, and even environmentalism as stooges of Western influence designed to undermine China.

~ Nectar Gan, "Xi's China is closing to the world. And it isn't just about borders," CNN, November 14, 2021

CNN on fear of the coronavirus in China

Since containing the initial outbreak in Wuhan, the Chinese government has held up its effective containment efforts as proof of the supposed superiority of the country's authoritarian political system.  The success of zero-Covid is thus hailed as an ideological and moral victory over the faltering response of the US and other Western democracies.  And there is plenty of public support for the hardline approach, too.  In China, public tolerance toward infections is extremely low, and fear of the virus still runs high -- partly caused by scarring memories of the devastation in Wuhan, but also fed by unrelenting state media coverage on the horror of rampaging infections abroad. 

~ Nectar Gan, "Xi's China is closing to the world. And it isn't just about borders," CNN, November 15, 2021

Thomas Sowell on why the elites hate the free market

One of the problems with the market from the standpoint of those who think that they are the brightest, the best, and ought to be telling the rest of us groundlings what to do, is that the market allows ordinary people to go out there and make their own decisions.  And people who think they have the Truth and the Light don't want that; they want no part of that.  It's really what they hate most, I think, about a market system.

~ Thomas Sowell, "Interview with Thomas Sowell," Reason, December, 1980

Ron Klain on President Biden's federal vaccine mandate

It’s common sense...  If OSHA can tell people to wear a hard hat on the job, to be careful around chemicals, it can put in place these simple measures to keep our workers safe.

~ White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain, "WH Chief of Staff Likens Vaccine Mandate to Requiring Workers to Wear a Hard Hat," Independent Journal Review, November 8, 2021

President Trump on Operation Warp Speed

We think we’re going to have a vaccine in the pretty near future.  If we do, we’re going to really be a big step ahead.  If we don’t, we’re going to be like so many other cases where you had a problem come in.  It’ll go away at some point.  It’ll go away.  It may flare up, and it may not flare up.  We’ll have to see what happens.

~ President Donald Trump, "Trump administration outlines audacious plan to deliver ‘hundreds of millions’ of Covid-19 vaccine doses by end of 2020," STAT News, May 15, 2020

Jonathan Isaac on respecting peoples' vaccine choices

Loving your neighbor's not just loving those that agree with you or look like you or move in the same way you do.  It's loving those who don't.

~ Jonathan Isaac, "Jonathan Isaac Explains His Decision to Remain Unvaccinated & Responds to Media Smears of Him," September 29, 2021

Dan Ferris on free speech

I like the theme of free speech.  It's under attack.  It's been completely perverted.  Because now speech is violent and violence is seen as an acceptable means to the end of squelching the allegedly violent speech.  It's been completely flipped upside down...  Too many people seem to have forgotten that civilization began when the first caveman called his neighbor a son-of-a-bitch instead of trying to kill him...  That's when we learned that "sticks and stones can break my bones, but words can never hurt me."  And words are far superior to sticks and stones if you want to grow a great society and prosper.

~ Dan Ferris, "Key Takeaways From the Annual Stansberry Conference," 1:25:00 mark, November 4, 2021

Bill Bonner on Greta Thunberg and the climate change agenda

Which brings us back to Saint Greta, the climate change activist, subject of yesterday’s Diary. 

She wants action.  Not “blah, blah.”  She’s angry… frustrated. 

And the kind of action she wants is Big Time public policy action. 

That is, she is not satisfied with reducing her own carbon footprint and persuading others to do the same.  She wants to force other people to do things they don’t want to do – on a scale not seen since World War II. 

As America’s special presidential envoy to the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), John Kerry, put it last week, the price tag will be trillions, not billions. 

[...]

Saint Greta proposes more aggressive government action.  But on this rudimentary evidence, the human race might be better off limiting public policies, rather than limiting the use of fossil fuel.

~ Bill Bonner, "Public Policy is an Elaborate Fraud," Rogue Economics, November 9, 2021

Frank Herbert on success

Ideas are a dime a dozen.  It's execution that counts. 

~ Frank Herbert

Frank Herbert on the beginning of knowledge

The beginning of knowledge is the discovery of something we do not understand.

~ Frank Herbert, God Emperor of Dune, p. 150

Frank Herbert on history

The gravest error a thinking person can make is to believe that one particular version of history is absolute fact.  History is recorded by a series of observers, none of whom is impartial.  The facts are distorted by sheer passage of time and thousands of years of humanity's dark ages, deliberate misrepresentations by religious sects, and the inevitable corruption that comes from an accumulation of careless mistakes.  The wise person, then, views history as a set of lessons to be learned, choices and ramifications to be considered and discussed, and mistakes that should never again be made. 

~ Frank Herbert

Frank Herbert on maintaining power

The undeserving maintain power by promoting hysteria.

~ Frank Herbert, God Emperor of Dune, p. 306

Frank Herbert on power

All governments suffer a recurring problem: Power attracts pathological personalities.

~ Frank Herbert, American science fiction author

Frank Herbert on power and corruption

The mistakes (of leaders) are amplified by the numbers who follow them without question.  Charismatic leaders tend to build up followings, power structures and these power structures tend to be taken over by people who are corruptible.  I don't think that the old saw about 'power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely' is accurate: I think power attracts the corruptible. 

~ Frank Herbert

Rolf Dobelli on college education and selection bias

Whenever we confuse selection factors with results, we fall prey to what Taleb calls the swimmer’s body illusion. Without this illusion, half of advertising campaigns would not work.  But this bias has to do with more than just the pursuit of chiseled cheekbones and chests.  For example, Harvard has the reputation of being a top university.  Many highly successful people have studied there. Does this mean that Harvard is a good school?  We don’t know.  Perhaps the school is terrible, and it simply recruits the brightest students around.  I experienced this phenomenon at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland.  It is said to be one of the top ten business schools in Europe, but the lessons I received (albeit 25 years ago) were mediocre.  Nevertheless, many of its graduates were successful.  The reason behind this is unknown – perhaps it was due to the climate in the narrow valley or even the cafeteria food.  Most probably, however, is the rigorous selection. 

All over the world, MBA students lure candidates with statistics regarding future income.  This simple calculation is supposed to show that the horrendously high tuition fees pay for themselves over a short period of time.  Many prospective students fall for this approach.  I am not implying that the schools doctor the statistics, but still their statements must not be swallowed wholesale.  Why?  Because those who pursue an MBA are different from those who do not.  The income gap between both groups stems from a multitude of reasons that have nothing to do with the MBA degree itself.  Once again we see the swimmer’s body illusion at work: the factor for selection confused with the result.  So, if you are considering further study, do it for reasons other than a bigger paycheck.

~ Rolf Dobelli, The Art of the Thinking Clearly, Chapter 2: "Does Harvard Make You Smarter?"

Frank Herbert on government

Governments, if they endure, always tend increasingly toward aristocratic forms.  No government in history has been known to evade this pattern.  And as the aristocracy develops, government tends more and more to act exclusively in the interests of the ruling class - whether that class be hereditary royalty, oligarchs of financial empires, or entrenched bureaucracy.

~ Frank Herbert, Children of Dune, p. 198

John Tamny on economic ties between the U.S. and China

It cannot be stressed enough that to visit China today as an American is to feel like you're a very welcome person.  You feel more at home than the average person because everywhere you look is a McDonalds, Burger King, KFC, Apple store, Nike store.  Everything over there is American.  The Chinese people - say what you will about Xi - are conducting a love affair, and it's a passionate one, with all things American.  Apple sells a fifth of its iPhones there, it's the second largest market for McDonalds, 4,200 Starbucks there on the way to tens of thousands.  It is a massive market for U.S. goods and so I find it just strange: China was a much bigger threat to us when it was a desperately poor communist country than it is now as a country that its people are finally tasting the fruits of economic freedom.  Are they as free as we are?  No, but these are people who love all things American and all you need to do is visit there to see this.

~ John Tamny, "Key Takeaways from the Annual Stansberry Conference," 1:14:55 mark, November 4, 2021

John Doerr on his plan to deal with climate change

We’re really on the verge of a catastrophic irreversible climate crisis.  The evidence is all around us: devastating hurricanes, floods, heatwaves and wildfires.  The hard reality is that what we’re doing is not enough, and so we need a clear course of action.  I want to acknowledge that it’s not going to be easy.  If we succeed at it, we’ll not only save the planet, but we will create the economic opportunity of a lifetime.   I’m pretty shameless in wanting to get people to pay attention to this plan.

~ John Doerr, former head of venture capital firm Kleiner Perkins and author of Speed and Scale: An Action Plan for Solving Our Climate Crisis Now

John Tamny on the root cause of supply chain shortages

Look back to Adam Smith.  I think it's fairly basic here: his opening pages are about a pin factory.  A man alone in a pin factory could maybe produce one pin per day, but a man working with several coworkers where everyone was specializing in that same pin factory could produce tens of thousands.  

So you think about something unsophisticated like that and then consider airplanes and computers and toys.  Imagine the global cooperation of billions of workers entering into trillions of different contractual arrangements over the decades on the way to this global supply and then a political class that thought it needed to guide us away from a virus decided to shut down the most sophisticated the world had ever known.  Is anyone surprised that we've got shortages right now?  

The shortages are a statement of the obvious, but what's offensive is when we call it supply chain shortages or inflation.  No, this was central planning.  This was the imposition of command and control where there had been freedom before.  Let's be very clear about what happened: the political class - Republicans and Democrats and everyone in between - caused this when they went for lockdowns as a virus mitigation strategy.

~ John Tamny, "Key Takeaways from the Annual Stansberry Conference," 43:40 mark, November 4, 2021

Aaron Rodgers on NFL rules for vaxxing and masking

Some of the rules to me are not based in science at all.  They're based purely in trying to out and shame people, like needing to wear a mask at a podium when every person in the room is vaccinated and wearing a mask makes no sense to me.  If you got vaccinated to protect yourself from a virus that I don't have as an unvaccinated individual, then why are you worried about anything I can give you?

~ Aaron Rodgers, appearance on The Pat McAffee Show, November 5, 2021

Dr. Drew Pinsky has lightbulb moment about freedom

One thing that I have changed on, even though I've stayed in the middle and still have the same ideas I've always had, I never was aware - aware - of how much I value freedom... and how much it needed to be protected.  I heard about that, I laughed about that when military people talked about it.  I literally made fun of it.  And all of a sudden, that has become a vivid reality to me, that freedom is something to be cherished and defended and we better pay attention to that.  And the masking is the opposite of that.  Now I'm not saying you shouldn't mask.  I'm saying you should not be taken by the mind virus if you do mask.  You should be doing it because you've decided to make a difference for that 15% effect and you're doing the best you can, not because somebody told you to do it.

~ Dr. Drew Pinsky, "The Mask Efficacy Study That News Doesn't Want You to See," Rubin Report, 9:00 mark, November 3, 2021

Aaron Rodgers on politics

The right is gonna champion me, and the left is gonna cancel me.  And the whole time, I don’t give a shit about either of them.  Politics is a total sham.

~ Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers on his choice to remain unvaccinated

I'm not some sort of anti-vax flat-earther.  I am somebody who's a critical thinker.  You guys know me, I march to the beat of my own drum.  I believe strongly in bodily autonomy and the ability to make choices for your body, not to have to acquiesce to some woke culture or crazed group of individuals who say you have to do something.  Health is not a one-size-fits-all for everybody and for me it involved a lot of study in the offseason.

~ Aaron Rodgers, "Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers says he didn't lie, details decision to not get vaccinated," ESPN.com, November 5, 2021

The Economist on the COP26 meeting on climate

As diplomats, scientists, lobbyists, activists, artists, the media, politicians and businesspeople gather in Glasgow for COP26, which begins on October 31st, it is therefore easy to dismiss the entire affair.  That would be a mistake.  The UNFCCC and its COPs, for all their flaws, play a crucial part in a process that is historic and vital: the removal of the fundamental limit on human flourishing imposed by dependence on fossil fuels.

~ The Economist, "Why the COP26 climate summit will be both crucial and disappointing," October 31, 2021

(COP stands for Conference of the Parties.  The 2021 Glasgow meeting will be the 26th meeting, which is why it's called COP26.  It will be attended by countries that signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - a treaty agreed in 1994.)

Al Gore on the green revolution

I think we're in the early stages of a sustainability revolution that's the biggest investing and business opportunity in history.   And those who don't recognize that and adapt to it are in commercial risk, of course, because they're going to be left behind.

~ Al Gore, Bloomberg TV, November 3, 2021

Nassim Taleb on maintaining quality

When you write books, when you do anything, you should never let the person have doubts about the quality of the product.  So if you're not sure about something, you say "I'm not sure, it's not my specialty."  Don't voice an opinion; you devalue yourself.  Or don't produce anything that devalues your product.

~ Nassim Taleb, "Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Skin in the Game," interview with Katrine Marçal, 10:45 mark, October 1, 2019

Bank of America CFO: "We're optimistic about the future"

If you look at the economy, it's improving, people are spending more and businesses are going to have to start investing.  We're optimistic about the future.

~ Paul Donofrio, chief financial officer, Bank of America, "With Solid Profits, Big Banks Are Bullish on Recovery," The New York Times, October 15, 2021

Tom Morey on invention

Almost everything has not been invented yet.  Some people think of one or two new things in their lifetime.  I have the misfortune of being a fabulous inventor.

~ Tom Morey, boogie board inventor, Sports Illustrated interview, 1982

(According to The New York Times, "Mr. Morey worked on various nonsurfing inventions, including a football that produced a better spiral, a three-player chess game, a sailboat with an adjustable mast and a type of hovercraft.  He also sketched out plans for a water park called Morey Boogie Land.  None of the projects were commercialized.)

August 15, 1935 - October 14, 2021

Thomas Sowell on social justice

Envy plus rhetoric equals 'social justice.'

~ Thomas Sowell

Benjamin Graham on how to measure investment success

The best way to measure your investment success is not by whether you're beating the market, but by whether you've put in place a financial plan and a behavioral discipline that are likely to get you where you want to go.

~ Benjamin Graham