Jan 26, 2021

Kevin Duffy compares today's everything bubble to the late '90s/2000 tech and dot-com bubble

I was short some of the dot-coms, big tech stocks during that time.  Brutal.  IPOs were insane, big 1st-day pops.  Priced on eyeballs, not profits.  Seemed to go on forever.  New Economy bubble next to Old Economy anti-bubble (the latter bottomed in Mar-00 right at the Nasdaq peak). 

Today is far worse: 
1) IPOs in 2020 topped previous record set in 2000 
2) Valuations higher, dollar amounts much higher 
3) SPACs... nothing like it  
4) Enthusiasm of young speculators is similar - online trading was new in 2000 
5) Greenspan and Powell both walked on water 
6) Wall Street strategists like Abby Cohen at GS were bullish in 2000; Wall St. was taken down a notch by GFC, but uniformly bullish 
7) CNBC pundits bullish in 2000, but some bears allowed on; today they've been nearly all excommunicated. 
8) There were more places to hide in 2000 
9) Bonds were out-of-favor in 2000, today they're the epicenter of the bubble 
10) Economy was on much sounder footing in 2000; debt levels are far higher today 
11) New passive bubble today; no ETFs then 
12) Cancel culture hadn't broken a sweat in 2000, now in full gallop 
13) Currency was on sounder footing in 2000, gold was near multi-decade lows; today gold is 6x higher 
14) Fed's balance sheet was a bit over $500B in 2000, now over $7T

~ Kevin Duffy, tweet, January 26, 2021

September 27, 1999

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