Jim Grant compares medical authorities to economic authorities

The medical authorities remind me of the economic authorities.  Both pretend to draw a bead on the future. Let’s compare them both to the meteorological authorities.  The National Weather Service spends over a billion dollars a year and takes tens of millions, if not billions, of discrete observations of wind, weather, tide, temperature, what have you.  But notice the 5 and 10 day forecasts on your trusty iPhone are ever changing.  This is the weather.  Temperature gradients don’t have feelings, they don’t get jealous of the millionaire next door, they don’t watch CNBC, yet our forecasting ability goes out maximum 10 days. Even so, the economists think nothing of calling next year’s GDP.

~ Jim Grant, "Living Economic History: Q&A with Jim Grant, The Coffee Can Portfolio, December 10, 2020