Ronald Stöferle et al. on Nassim Taleb and why economists are prone to making poor forecasts

In [Nassim] Taleb's opinion, economists are susceptible to erroneous assessments, as soon as they ascribe excessive precision to statistical methods.  He provides inter alia two major reasons for this.  First of all, they often fall prey to the fallacious assumption that extensive amounts of historical observations permit conclusions about the future, and secondly, that future events are subject to a bell-shaped probability distribution.  In other words: they do not assume that past correlations may be subject to randomness as well.

~ Rahim Taghnizadegan, Ronald Stöferle, Mark Valek and Heinz Blasnik, Austrian School for Investors (2015), p. 74