Kevin Duffy on waiting for the tide to go out to pick winners

When it comes to business success, the lines are blurred, making it all the more difficult to identify entrepreneurs as worthy stewards of our capital.  Is Elon Musk a classic market entrepreneur or shameless political capitalist?  Is Warren Buffett’s everyone’s-favorite-grandfather image beyond reproach?

One suggestion is to wait for the tide to go out and see who’s been swimming naked.  Surviving a hostile environment is one of the most reliable predictors of future success.  At the end of 1999, Jeff Bezos was the leader in a crowded race for e-commerce gold.  After the dot-com bust, his stock price was 95% lower, but he had the field all to himself.

~ Kevin Duffy, "The Trouble With Conformity," The Coffee Can Portfolio, p. 4, November 2, 2020

December 27, 1999