Kevin Duffy: "Warren Buffett is the ultimate crowded trade"

Warren Buffett is the ultimate crowded trade. Every finance major studies him and wants to emulate him.  So perhaps we should look at him as a contrary indicator:

• He doesn’t understand macroeconomics at a time when it really matters. Prepare for the bust phase of the business cycle.
• He hates gold (because he doesn’t understand economics). Own some gold as a hedge against systemic problems.
• He just lost over $4 bil last week on his 25% stake in Kraft Heinz. At the time of the merger in 2015 he said, “This is my kind of transaction, uniting two world class organizations and delivering shareholder value.” Instead, they brought in the financial engineers at 3G Capital and destroyed value. Millennial tastes are changing, but Buffett is stuck in a Cherry Coke time warp.
• He thinks he can cozy up to the political establishment. That worked in 2008, but it could very well fail during the next bear market.