Brian Riedl on Social Security and Medicare deficits

Over the next three decades, the Social Security system is scheduled to pay benefits $21 trillion greater than its trust fund will collect in payroll taxes and related revenues.  The Medicare system is projected to run a $48 trillion shortfall.  These deficits are projected to, in turn, produce $47 trillion in interest payments to the national debt.  That is a combined shortfall of $116 trillion, according to data from the Congressional Budget Office. (To inflation-adjust these figures, trim by roughly one-third.)

~ Brian Riedl, Manhattan Institute, "Biden's Promises on Social Security Have No Basis in Reality," The New York Times, February 21, 2023

(As quoted by James Freeman, "'No Basis in Mathematical Reality'," The Wall Street Journal, February 23, 2023.)

Intel's Pat Gelsinger makes a bold prediction

We will be the world's largest integrated design and manufacturer of silicon for the long-term.

~ Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO, "Inside Intel’s Bold $26 Billion U.S. Plan To Regain Chip Dominance," 19:10 mark, CNBC, November 6, 2021

Ana Bozovic on history

I always talk about how everything moves in cycles.  Why does it do that?  I have this theory harkening back to our concept of human nature, that history is the cyclical aggregate of human herding behavior... being pushed on by innovation.

~ Ana Bozovic, tweet, 5:30 mark, February 16, 2023

Ana Bozovic on the American empire

The phase of the American empire that we're in right now is one that is very far removed for most people from survival.  And it has been for so long.  And thus it's allowing belief systems and behaviors to that are not necessarily conducive to survival in challenging times to flourish.

~ Ana Bozovic, tweet, 3:10 mark, February 16, 2023

Joel Tillinghast on focus

Successful people simplify their lives by focusing on the facts and actions that matter most.  If you don't, you will find yourself either on a hamster wheel or bogged down in trivia.  The trickiest part is staying open to new and contradictory information that affects your goals, while cutting out the clutter.  One test for noise is to ask whether a piece of information will still be useful in a year or two, leaving out plenty of fussy details about quarterly results.

~ Joel Tillinghast, Big Money Thinks Small, p. 61

Joel Tillinghast: avoid investing in the single largest stock in the S&P 500

Familiarity can work against investors.  If you continuously invested in the single largest S&P 500 stock by market value between 1972 and 2016, your compound returns would have been less than 4 percent, while the index earned over 10 percent.  A smiliar but smaller effect was seen with the ten largest S&P 500 stocks.

~ Joel Tillinghast, Big Money Thinks Small, p. 60

John Kenneth Galbraith on economic forecasting

The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.

~ John Kenneth Galbraith