May 19, 2022

Kevin Duffy on amateur hour at the casino (2021)

Christoph Gisiger: What's your general advice for investors who want to invest their money in a reasonable and prudent way in this challenging environment? 

Kevin Duffy: If you want to live off the grid and live off of fruits, berries or coconuts, that’s one thing. But if you want to accumulate wealth or protect it, you’re in the investment game. You don’t have a choice. So you have to ask yourself: Who are your competitors out there? First of all, I don’t want to compete in the short-term trading arena with high frequency traders like Ken Griffin, the CEO of Citadel. That’s like competing against Tiger Woods on the golf course. The reason why guys like Griffin are doing so well is because you have a bunch of amateurs trying to compete with them.

~ Kevin Duffy, "The Next Bear Market Has Already Started," The Market/NZZ, July 1, 2021



Kevin Duffy on how great investors and companies are antifragile

Defense wins championships.  Great investors go to the head of the line by being prepared for a bear market and in a position to benefit from forced selling.  Likewise, great companies get stronger in recessions because they're built for survival.

~ Kevin Duffy, tweet, May 19, 2022



May 18, 2022

Warren Buffett on how accurately CPI measures inflation

I think overall, for a typical young family, the CPI probably underestimates the burden they have faced, in terms of their own living standards.

~ Warren Buffett, "Warren Buffett DESTROYS Consumer Price Index (CPI)," YouTube, May 4, 2022



May 16, 2022

Ernest Hemingway on happiness and intelligence

Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.

~ Ernest Hemingway



Confucius: "We have two lives"

We have two lives, and the second begins when we realize we only have one.

~ Confucius





May 13, 2022

Paul Volcker on the late '90s tech bubble

The fate of the world economy is now totally dependent on the U.S. economy, which is dependent on the stock market, whose growth is dependent on about 50 stocks, half of which have never reported earnings.

~ Paul Volcker, May 14, 1999



Kevin Duffy on the selfishness and irrationality of capitalism

Q: Why is libertarianism not generally called pro-capitalism?  Is it just a way of saying you support a more extreme version of free market capitalism?

A (partial): What I fundamentally dislike about libertarianism is how selfish it is.  I also resent how many of them assume their positions are preeminently “logical,” and that their own superior reasoning “proves” the superiority of their myopic worldview.  Human beings are not rational machines.  They are not fundamentally logical.  We are far more nuanced than that.

Duffy comment: You have a point. Individuals act in their own self interest.  They also can act irrationally at times, especially when in crowds. 

Fair enough, but shouldn’t we apply the same principle to government officials?  What puts them above these human foibles? 

The difference is that individuals trading with others must use persuasion, i.e. they have to make each other better off.  Call it selfish all you want, but free markets are mutually beneficial, win-win.  This doesn’t mean people don’t make mistakes or have regrets after the fact, but going into the trade, they only do so if they expect to benefit.  And when things don’t work out, that failure imparts information.  People learn. 

Government officials, on the other hand, use coercion.  THEY decide what is best for society and tell everyone what to do.  Resist and you end up in jail or worse.  The political class (the government and its cronies) lives at the expense of the populace, win-lose.  These people are far from selfless.  In fact, they lie, cheat and steal all the time. 

This is not to say the people have no say in the matter, but it is the majority who count, not the minority dissenters.  Government officials know this, which is why they constantly play to the crowd.  Their stock in trade is propaganda which works by simplifying the complex to a political slogan, playing on peoples’ fears and pitting one group against another. 

The defenders of such a system can only do so with semantics, calling mutually beneficial trade “exploitation” and government coercion “selfless.”  Sorry, but your system is built on brute force.  No amount of spin can give it moral superiority over a system of freedom.

~ Kevin Duffy, Quora, May 13, 2022