Alex Berenson on the economic damage from the coronavirus shutdowns

In February I was worried about the virus.  By mid-March I was more scared about the economy.  This isn’t complicated.  The models don’t work.  The hospitals are empty.  WHY ARE WE STILL TALKING ABOUT INDEFINITE LOCKDOWNS?"

~ Alex Berenson, "Meet the former NYT reporter who is challenging the coronavirus narrative," Fox News, April 11, 2020

JPMorgan research note on record retail sales decline in March

All the toilet paper in the world can't clean up this report.

~ title of a research note from JPMorgan, April 15, 2020

(As reported by CNBC.  Retail sales fell 8.7% in March, the biggest decline since 1992 when the Commerce Department first started issuing the report.)

Larry Kudlow proposes "war bonds" to Trump for coronavirus

[Larry] Kudlow says he proposed 'war bonds' for coronavirus to Trump.

The U.S. has used special war bonds in the past, drawing on patriotism to fund military and counter-terrorism operations. Americans lent their government money through purchases of Liberty Bonds in World War I and War Bonds in World War II. In 2001, Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill introduced “Patriot Bonds” to help finance the fight against terrorism after the Sept. 11 attacks.

~ "Larry Kudlow's War Bonds Are Coming But in a Plain Vanilla Rapper," Bloomberg, April 15, 2020

Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects a $3.8 trillion budget deficit

The fiscal 2020 deficit that needs to be funded will be four times as large as last year’s at $3.8 trillion, or almost 19% of gross domestic product, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan group. While few in Washington see a need to prioritize fiscal prudence right now, given the economic damage being done by the virus, the CRFB warns that an unsustainable situation is brewing and corrective actions will be needed one day.

~ "Larry Kudlow's War Bonds Are Coming But in a Plain Vanilla Rapper," Bloomberg, April 15, 2020

Tavi Costa on the importance of the Treasury bond market

I think the Treasury [bond] market is the most important market.  The U.S. and the whole world can not sustain these debt levels with higher interest rates...  When that happens, there's no bailout anymore.  I think that's the most important message here.

~ Tavi Costa, Interview on Real Investment Show with Lance Roberts Show, 18:45 mark

Friedrich Hayek on and profit and loss

As we now know, in the evolution of the structure of human activities, profitability works as a signal that guides selection towards what makes man more fruitful; only what is more profitable will, as a rule, nourish more people, for it sacrifices less than it adds.

~ Friedrich Hayek, The Fatal Conceit (1988), Chapter 3: "The Evolution of the Market", p. 46

Jim Chanos: "The fraud cycle follows the business and financial cycle with a lag"

The fraud cycle follows the business and financial cycle with a lag.  The longer an economic expansion goes on and the longer a bull market goes on, peoples' sense of disbelief is reduced.  And they begin to believe more things that are too good to be true.  Inevitably when the cycle turns down and people get stingier with their capital, since most frauds today are by and large Ponzi schemes or Ponzi schemes once or twice removed, it gets harder to keep the game going because cheap capital's not available and the business models collapse.

Jim Chanos, CNBC interview, April 2, 2020