Warren Buffett on the value of macro forecasting

Forming macro opinions or listening to the macro or market predictions of others is a waste of time. Indeed, it is dangerous because it may blur your vision of the facts that are truly important.

~ Warren Buffett, "Why I Like to Think of Stocks Like Farms," Fortune, March 17, 2014

Morgan Stanley strategist Adam Parker: "I don't think 15.5 times earnings for the S&P 500 is in bubble territory"

I think we all romanticize that we're going to sniff out the bubble the day before everyone else and get rich and famous for it, but at the end of the day I don't think 15.5 times earnings for the S&P 500 is in bubble territory. 

I think that there's been some real changes to the market because of the quantitative easing.  And the number one important thing is that basically companies have all pushed out their financial obligations for 2 or 3 years so the balance sheets are in great shape and the risk of bankruptcy is very low.  That's been a big change over the last few years.

If we're about to head into a bubble, then you'll want to be long for a while.  I think everyone wants to call in and talk about it. If you want to call the top of the cycle, two things would be in place. One is hubris. And the other is debt. Hubris meaning some form of management arrogance gone awry. ... I don't think we're very frothy on that point.

~ Adam Parker, Morgan Stanley market strategist, as appeared on CNBC's Squawk on the Street, March 11, 2014

Barton Biggs on bull markets and sex

A bull market is a lot like sex.  It feels best just before it ends.

~ Barton Biggs

John Adams on debt

There are two ways to conquer and enslave a country. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.

~ John Adams (1735-1826)

John Adams
1797-1801

Nassim Taleb on Platonicity

Medieval man was a cog in a wheel he did not understand; modern man is a cog in a complicated system he thinks he understands.

~ Nassim Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes, p. 57

Nassim Taleb on error's relationship to fragility and robustness

For the robust, an error is information; for the fragile, an error is an error.

~ Nassim Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes, p. 72

Gustave de Molinari on defense

Political economy has disapproved equally of monopoly and communism in the various branches of human activity, wherever it has found them. Is it not then strange and unreasonable that it accepts them in the industry of security?

~ Gustave de Molinari (1849)