Rolf Dobelli on the illusion of skill

In certain areas, skill plays no role whatsoever.  In his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, [Daniel] Kahneman describes his visit to an asset management company.  To brief him, they sent him a spreadsheet showing the performance of each investment adviser over the past eight years.  From this, a ranking was assigned to each: number 1, 2, 3, and so on in descending order.  This was compiled every year.  Kahneman quickly calculated the relationship between the years' rankings.  Specifically, he calculated the correlation of the rankings between year 1 and year 2, between year 1 and year 3, year 1 and year 5, up until year 7 and year 8.  The result: pure coincidence.  Sometimes the adviser was at the very top and sometimes the very bottom.  If an adviser had a great year, this was neither bolstered by previous years nor carried into subsequent years.  The correlation was zero.  And yet the consultants pocketed bonuses for their performance.  In other words, the company was rewarding luck rather than skill.

 ~ Rolf Dobelli, The Art of Thinking Clearly, p. 283

 

Shaun Rein on how the U.S. has been a magnet for talent

One of the great things about America is that we have been a place that the top talent in the world, from China, from the Soviet Union, from Vietnam, they all want to come to our country.  Because America is a great country.  It's an exceptional country.  And so we should be making it easier for top talent, people who bring money, bring in intellectual knowledge into the United States.  That's what makes America great and that's what we should be encouraging.

 ~ Shaun Rein, Twitter/X post, November 12, 2025

 

Michael Weeks on when to sell

When should I sell? 

Ask an economist, an investor, and a business owner this question and you will get three different answers: a theory, a formula, and a decision.

The theory is universal and true, but not practical.

The formula is universal and practical, but not true.

The decision is true and practical, but not universal.

My answer is simple: You sell when it makes sense. 

Not a theory.  Not a formula.  Always a judgment call, based entirely on experience and circumstance.

~ Michael Weeks, Edelweiss Holdings, Twitter/X post, October 15, 2025

 

Kevin Duffy on narratives that drive the state

The state thrives on 2 false narratives:

1. It must protect group A from being exploited by group B.

2. It must solve some crisis (or future crisis) that the free market is incapable of solving due to apathy, greed, lack of resources or lack of vision.

~ Kevin Duffy, Twitter/X post, November 10, 2025