Shaun Rein: "I'm cautiously optimistic over trade between the U.S. and China under Trump"

With Trump, it's quite clear that he's not an ideologue.  He's very transactional.  You see he's criticized Panama, Mexico and Canada and now he's starting to criticize EU.  He's slapping tariffs, slapping criticism, even on America's closest allies.  So that actually lowers the tension with China.  If Trump adds 10% or 60% tariffs in China, it doesn't seem like he's trying to destroy China he's just trying to extract what he considers to be the best trade deal for America and probably for himself.

With Trump, I think Chinese feel that there is an opening.  I'll give an example.  Trump has said, "I don't want NEV [new energy vehicle] automakers to export from China autos into the United States.  I want them to build factories in America, hire American workers and help grow the economy of the United States."  Frankly, that's fair, right?  That's what the Chinese did to GM.  That's what the Chinese did to Ford.  That's what the Chinese did to Volkswagen in the 1990s.  They said to foreign automakers, "If you want to have access to China's growing, swelling middle class, you need to set up joint venture and you need to set up factories in China."  So I think it's fair if Trump, and I think it's frankly fair if Europe, does the same thing to the BYDs, the NIOs and Xpengs of the world and says, "If you want access to America and you want access to Europe, you need to invest in factories in these countries."

The key is that Trump is offering a pathway to Chinese companies.  With Biden it was 100% tariff on Chinese NEVs and it was 100% ban on Chinese NEVs and software...  So Biden basically was banning Chinese NEVs, which is one of China's new productive forces and key pillars for economic growth from ever selling into the United States, while Trump is saying, "Build factories in America."  That gives a pathway.  It's the same thing with TikTok.  Biden wanted to ban TikTok completely, Trump is saying, "Maybe if TikTok sells a 50% stake to American investors, we'll give an avenue."  

I'm actually cautiously optimistic over trade between the U.S. and China under Trump because at least Trump is giving a pathway to Chinese companies to start to invest and grow internationally without fears of sanctions.

~ Shaun Rein, "Why China Brushes Off Trump's Tariffs," Thinkers Forum, 7:20 mark, March 1, 2025