Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg on the new global monetary order

We have long maintained that the current period of commodity undervaluation would ultimately conclude with a fundamental shift in the global monetary order. Until recently, we expected this shift to originate from the BRIC nations. China, in particular, has spearheaded efforts to move away from the dollar in bilateral trade settlement, gradually reducing its reliance on the U.S. currency. By last year, nearly 10% of all international trade had already moved outside the dollar-based system—a quiet but unmistakable sign of change. 

More recently, however, our thinking has evolved. Rather than de-dollarization being driven externally, we now believe the catalyst may emerge from within the United States itself. Instead of retreating from the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency, policymakers appear poised to double down on it, introducing a series of sweeping reforms that the media has begun referring to as the “Mar-a-Lago Accords.” Though details remain scarce, both Treasury Secretary Bessent and proposed Council of Economic Advisors Chairman Miran have offered hints as to their likely structure. In short, the reforms are expected to include revaluing the Federal Reserve’s gold holdings, restructuring portions of the national debt, and implementing a tariff regime designed to define what Miran describes as a “global commonwealth” of allied nations. Whether these measures will succeed remains an open question, but there is no doubt they represent a fundamental break from the existing global monetary framework.

~ Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg, "On Commodities, Carry Regimes & Changes in Global Monetary Regimes," Goehring & Rozencwajg, March 7, 2025