Fred Hickey on why Apple's stock is vulnerable

Apple's stock has rallied all year long (almost back to a record high) and certainly does not reflect the deterioration in the economy, the squeeze on consumers from tightened lending, declining consumer sentiment (remember - Apple sells to consumers - not corporations), the slide in the smartphone market - leading to an inventory overbuild and digestion period, falling revenues and earnings and a rising P/E ratio (twice as high as it normally runs at).  It also doesn't account for its heavy exposure to China (relations between the U.S. and that country continue to worsen), a difficult (and likely costly) transition from producing nearly all its products in China to places such as India, the likelihood that the Chinese government will kick Apple in the pants on the way out (I don't think China will forget how the U.S. government destroyed Huawei's smartphone business), the poor position of its product cycle and lack of innovation.

Of all today's Big Seven, Apple (and likely Tesla) appear to me to be in the most trouble (short-term and long-term) and once Apple's stock momentum inevitably turns downward again, investors may experience a Wile E. Coyote moment - over the cliff and with a long way to fall in the bear market.

~ Fred Hickey, "2000 Déjà vu," The High-Tech Strategist, June 1, 2023