Eric Johnston on using the unemployment rate as a contrary indicator

If you look at the past selloffs in the market, they've all started with a very low unemployment rate.  So February of 2020?  That was a 50-year low unemployment rate.  2007?  That was a 6-year low unemployment rate.  In the bubble of 2000, everything felt great in February of 2000.  We were at a 30-year low unemployment rate.  Things felt great and then... things completely fell apart.  So in the beginning of these things, there's a sense of complacency that goes where "maybe we can get through this."  But the reality is, is that it always feels this way in the beginning.  We go in cycles and I think over time, if you sold a 3 1/2% to 4 1/2% unemployment rate and you bought a 10% unemployment rate, you would do very well.  And right now we are towards the end of the cycle, and whether the cycle ends in 2023 or '24, it's probably on its last legs.

~ Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald, CNBC interview with Scott Wapner, 2:20 mark, January 18, 2023