Dylan Grice on the end of the duration bull market

It's been a golden age for duration.  In the bond market, interest rates have gone from 20% to zero in effect over a 40 year period.  So the total return from government bonds over the last 40 years has been higher than the total return to equities in the previous 100 years on an annualized basis...  The most interesting, maybe the most practical dimension to this is that this has happened over four decades.  In other words, that's a full career in finance.  And so you have had, I think, this phenomenal tailwind and to multiple asset classes.  Obviously corporate bonds and credit markets have had a huge tailwind from the bull market in government bonds, but so have other duration assets.  So real duration assets like equities, private equity or venture equity, arguably real estate.  All of these things have had this enormous tailwind...  So this end of a duration bull market, if that bull market turned into a bear market than pretty much all conventional mainstream portfolios are going to be tossed.

~ Dylan Grice, interview, The Meb Faber Show, 7:35 mark, April 11, 2022