Jim Grant on margin of safety and possible repeat of 1973-74

The point to mark about 1973 [oil shock followed by recession and severe bear market] is not the risk that it literally repeats, but only to give unscripted events their due.  The central bankers haven’t feared them, much less prepared for them. Listening to the mandarins talk these past 10 years, one would suppose that they were in charge of the future. 

The idea of a margin of safety itself went out the window. It was no longer necessary, many came to reason, not in logistics, inventory management, geopolitics, pandemic medicine or investment-portfolio construction.

~ Jim Grant, "Break ball in a pool game," Grant's Interest Rate Observer, March 4, 2022