Thomas Knapp on Covid-19 infection fatality rates

Here, such as it is, is the current science: 

If 100,000 Americans age 19 or younger contract COVID-19, three of them will die. 

If 10,000 Americans between 20 and 49 years old contract COVID-19, two of them will die. 

If a thousand Americans between 50 and 69 years old contract COVID-19, five of them will die. 

But if you’re 70 years or older and contract COVID-19, your chances of dying skyrocket to about 1 in 20.

Those are the “best estimates” of COVID-19 Infection Fatality Ratios published by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

If the CDC’s estimates are correct — and if I had a nickel for every time I’ve heard “listen to the experts!” I’d need a bigger house to store my nickels in — a COVID-19 infection is less likely than a seasonal flu infection to kill anyone under 70. 

There’s a caveat, of course: CDC estimates COVID-19’s “R0” (the average number of people an infected person infects in turn) at 2.5, while seasonal flu’s R0 runs about half that. COVID-19 spreads more quickly and easily than flu. More cases equals more deaths.

[...] 

If the CDC’s numbers are correct, they offer two lessons: 

First, protecting the elderly from COVID-19 as best we can makes sense. 

Second, the rest of us need to abandon the state-imposed superstitions and get back to living in the real world.

~ Thomas L. Knapp, "Covid-10 Panic is the New Religion," The William Lloyd Garrison Center for Libertarian Advocacy Journalism, October 1, 2020